moonslav59

Sox injury update (from covers.com): (Other sites have Casas "day-to-day.") 3/30 Probable: Turner (face) 3/30 Doubtful: Mondesi (knee) (Other sites have ... Late March: Wong) Mid April: Whitlock (hip) other sites say "early April?" Mid April: Paxton (hamstring) other sites say "early April?" Late April: Bello (forearm) other sites say "mid April?" Mid July: Story (elbow) Indefinite: J Rodriguez (oblique) 3 starting pitchers out hurts, but it's not really unexpected. All are re-habbing and throwing. We will likely start the season with Kluber, Sale, Pivetta, Winckowski

Bogey's at .739. I hope people don't read too much into ST numbers. I think we will have a solid team with about as many weak or weaker links as most contenders. We are about a week from opening day! LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!!!

There has to be some sort of adjustment period, and many of the pitchers McGuire caught, late last season, are now gone. (Houck missed the end of 2022.)

His ST'ing OPS has fallen to .573, while Wong's has risen to .800, but I think McGuire will prove to be the near FT starter. I know they usually match catchers with specific pitchers, but maybe a catcher L-R platoon word work for us. It would likely give McGuire 60-65% of the starts.

Yup. ST: 8.1 IP 0 ER

ALE ST Records 15-11 TOR 12- 9 BOS 14-11 TBR 13-12 BAL 10-15 NYY Run Diff +37 TBR +24 BOS +17 TOR +3 BAL -3 NYY

Yes, Ref was lumped in with "others." Would he be average in LF? Kike and JBJ combined had over 1300 OF innings in 2022. (Improvement looks unlikely, unless Kike plays healthy, like 2021, and more innings i the OF than in 2022.) Verdugo alone had over 1300. (Improvement might be possible, if he does not play OF as much, but is likely worse playing in RF over LF.) All the others had over 1400, and that is where improvement is possible.

#1 Marcelo Mayer, SS Physical Description: Tall, athletic frame. Loose and projectable with room to add strength as he physically matures. Likely to add good weight upon being introduced to a professional strength and conditioning program. Looks the part. Hit: Starts open and vertical with his hands high. Quiet load with a very short leg lift. Fluid swing with strong feel for hit. Quick hands. Plus bat speed. Very impressive bat control. Ball jumps off his bat and has already shown the ability to turn on velocity. Knows the strike zone and has strong bat-to-ball skills. Advanced approach for a high school hitter. Will use all fields and does not try to do too much at the plate. Potential plus hit tool. Power: Above-average raw power. Strong for his frame with good extension in his swing. Has already shown the ability to drive the ball in the air to all fields. Needs to add some strength, and if he does, will turn doubles in the gap into home runs. Potential for above-average to plus game power at his peak. Run: Fringe-average speed. Good instincts, but not a burner. Will play faster than his foot speed because of how he reads the game. Field: Instinctual defender with very fluid actions. Looks like he is gliding on the field. Soft hands and solid footwork. Moves well and has plenty of range for shortstop. Confident defender; will take a flashy infield. Potential plus defender at short. Arm: Plus arm, plenty for shortstop. Able to make all the throws with plenty of zip. Career Notes: Was seen as the consensus top prospect in the 2021 MLB Draft despite falling to the Red Sox with the fourth pick. First caught attention of scouts while playing with Twins 2019 first-round pick Keoni Cavaco. Switch-hit when he was young but decided to focus on hitting left-handed after the eighth grade. Was committed to USC when drafted. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Entered 2022 season as a consensus top 20 prospect. Missed most of a period of about a month in April/May 2022 due to a wrist sprain. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian. Entered 2023 as a consensus top 10 prospect. Summation: Potential above-average regular. Ceiling of a regular all-star. Has all the tools you look for in future everyday shortstop and the offensive upside to hit at the top of a contending team's lineup. Game comes easy to him. Potential for four above-average-or-better tools. Should be able to stick at shortstop and hit for a high average with power. Hit-over-power at the plate at this point, but both tools project as at least above-average. One of the best, if not the best, defenders in the 2021 draft. Complete profile on both sides of the ball gives him an all-star ceiling.

#3 Miguel Bleis, OF Physical Description: Tall, athletic frame with lots of remaining projection. Looks the part, has the room to add strength without impacting his athleticism. Hit: Starts slightly open with his hands high. Some pre-pitch hand movement, but consistently ends up in a good hitting position. Utilizes a toe-tap timing device. Good separation in his swing. Quick hands, plus bat speed. Fluid swing. Makes a lot of contact on pitches in the zone and has had no problems with velocity early in his career. Will work counts and has some feel for the strike zone, but still in the early stages of developing his approach. Does expand the zone against quality offspeed pitches, but has shown a willingness to take a walk. When he gets ahead in the count, is aggressive, hunting fastballs he can hit. Ball makes a different sound when he squares it up. Will go to all fields and hits the ball extremely hard for someone his age and is already producing major league-quality exit velocities as a teenager. Still has a ways to go in developing his approach, but shows the raw tools to develop an above-average hit tool. Power: Will show plus raw power in batting practice. As he physically matures, could add even more raw power. Has already shown the ability to impact the baseball in games as well. Hits the ball extremely hard and can drive the ball with backspin. Shows the makings of all-fields power. Batting practice is very impressive when he lets it go. Potential for plus game power at his peak. Run: Plus speed. Plays faster than he grades out due to his athleticism and agility. When he moves it is effortless. Covers ground extremely quickly. Field: Shows good instincts and reads in center field. Plus range. Takes long strides and glides to the ball. Projects to stick in center field, where he could be a plus defender. Arm: Above-average arm strength. Plenty of arm for center field. Career Notes: Received the largest bonus in the Red Sox January 2021 international free agent class. Missed the first two weeks of the 2021 season for undisclosed reasons. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Entered 2023 as a consensus top 100 prospect. Summation: Potential everyday player who adds significant value in all facets of the game. High-risk prospect with a wide variance of outcomes. Checks all the boxes you look for in a prospect his age. If he reaches his potential, all five tools could grade at least as average. Raw power is his best current tool, but has the potential to hit for average as well. Has the highest upside of any Latin American prospect in the system. Scouts praised him as the best position player they saw in the FCL during the 2022 season.\ #2 Triston Casas, 1B (3B?) Physical Description: Strong, imposing frame. Thick, fully developed lower half. Will have to work to maintain body and athleticism, but has a strong work ethic and long-term concerns on that issue are minimal. Very long limbs. Has done a good job with conditioning early in his career. Arrived at 2020 Alternate Training Site with a more toned physique. Hit: Starts slightly open in a slight crouch. Quiet pre-pitch. Utilizes a leg lift timing device and gets his foot down in time. Easy load, hips really fire through. Plus bat speed; whips the bat through the zone. Smooth, fluid swing, especially given his size. Strong feel for hit. Utilizes all fields. Will always have some swing-and-miss in his game, but for someone of his size, he has it well under control. Will take a walk and shows a keen eye at the plate. Has shown a willingness to try adjustments to his swing and to move on if they are not working. Has used a two-strike approach in which he widens his stance and chokes up on the bat, but he has largely abandoned that as he has moved up the ladder. Potential to develop an above-average hit tool. Power: Plus-plus raw power. Easy all-fields power. Power plays best to the pull side, but has shown the ability to wait back and drive the ball the other way as well. Has the ideal combination of size, strength, and bat speed for a power hitter. Ball really jumps off his bat. Drives the ball with backspin. Was among the Triple-A leaders in hard-hit percentage in 2022. Potential for at least plus in-game power at his peak. Run: Well below-average speed. Not a part of his game. Will likely continue to get slower as he matures. Smart baserunner, reads the game well. Field: Confident picking out throws in the dirt. Soft hands and surprisingly fluid actions. Moves well enough for first base. Potential solid-average defender there. Drafted as a third baseman, but footwork was choppy, he lacked range, and looked awkward fielding the ball there given his size. Arm: Plus arm. Touched the low 90s on the mound in high school. Would have been plenty of arm for third base had he stuck there. Career Notes: Was an old prospect for his draft class, but reclassified in 2017 and graduated high school early to enter the draft a year earlier. Reportedly put up some of the highest exit velocities in the 2018 high school class. Excelled in showcase events and led Team USA in home runs and RBI on the way to winning the MVP of the U-18 Baseball World Cup. Attended the same high school as Red Sox draft picks CJ Chatham, Shaun Anderson, and Deven Marrero, as well as Eric Hosmer. Had committed to the University of Miami. Tore the UCL in his right thumb diving for a ground ball in his second game after signing and missed the rest of the 2018 regular season after surgery. For first month of 2019, tried to use a pronounced crouch at the plate but struggled (.208/.284/.364, 35% K rate). Returned to a more natural swing, saving crouch for two strikes, and improved drastically, posting great numbers for his age even despite a July slump (.267/.364/.506, 21% K rate). Entered 2020 season as a top 100 prospect. Was a late addition to the Alternate Training Site in 2020, where he impressed as one of the best hitters in Pawtucket despite being one of the youngest and least experienced players there. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2018, 2019, and 2020, but did not play in games in 2020. Entered 2021 as a consensus top 50 prospect. Received a non-roster invitation to MLB spring training in 2021. Played for Team USA in the 2021 Americas Olympic Qualifier and at the 2021 Olympics, where he hit three home runs and was named to the All-Olympic Team as the U.S. won the silver medal. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Entered 2022 as a consensus top 50 prospect, ranked as high as 19th by Baseball America. Received a non-roster invitation to MLB spring training in 2022. Missed two months with a high ankle sprain between May and July 2022. Entered 2023 as a consensus top 25 prospect. Summation: Potential everyday regular. Ceiling of an all-star capable of hitting for both average and significant power. Looks the part of a prototypical bat-first first baseman capable of anchoring a lineup. Projects to add some value defensively at first base as well. Hit tool still needs development. Will have to ensure the swing-and-miss in his game does not impact his ability to tap into his power. Strong instincts and feel for the game. Great work ethic and strong clubhouse presence. Student of the game, really looks to hone his craft.

4-5 prospects per soxprospects.com: #5 Nick Yorke, 2B Physical Description: Sturdy frame. Filled out for his age. Thick lower half. Lost 25 pounds between his draft year and first full pro season. Some remaining projection, mainly in his upper body, and could stand to add some strength. Hit: Typically has started open with his hands by his chest. In 2022 Arizona Fall League, experimented with starting with his hands up and bat pointed behind him before getting to the same load position. Utilizes a slight leg lift timing device. Advanced hit tool. Strong feel for hit. Has bat speed and a very fluid, compact swing. Two-handed finish. Good barrel control. Advanced approach for his age. Willing to use all fields, but did get pull happy in 2022 at times as he tinkered with his mechanics. Good separation in his swing. Makes good swing decisions and rarely expands the zone. Consistently makes solid contact. Has shown the ability to turn on velocity up in the zone already. Potential plus hit tool. Power: Average raw power. In-game power is still developing, but should get to fringe-average at least. Has shown the ability to impact the baseball. Power potential is somewhat limited by swing path, which is more designed for hard line drives. Run: Fringe-average speed. Plays faster than his raw speed due to baserunning instincts. Could get slower as he ages. Field: Fringe-average range, but has soft hands. Can be robotic at times and a little stiff. Comfortable charging the ball and throwing on the run. Has a chance to stick at second base but will never be a standout defender. Played shortstop in high school but moved to second base after signing. Potential fringe-average defender. Arm: Fringe-average arm strength. Career Notes: Mother was a four-time All-American softball player at Fresno State. First came onto the system's radar because of Fresno State connection between his mother and scout Josh Labandeira. Brothers Joe and Zach play college baseball at Cal Poly-SLO (after transferring from Boise State when that school cut its baseball program) and Grand Canyon University, respectively. Had shoulder surgery before his junior year and was limited to DH duty that spring while his shoulder healed. Selection in the first round surprised many and defied public draft rankings, but Red Sox amateur scouting department was convinced both that he would have been more generally regarded as a first-round talent but for the cancellation of the spring season and that he would not have been available with the team's next pick, in the third round. Was added to the Club Player Pool very late in the 2020 season, impressing with quality at-bats against much older competition in about a week-and-a-half at the Alternate Training Site. Participated in the 2020 Fall Instructional League. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-50 prospect. Struggled through multiple injuries in 2022, missing roughly a week-and-a-half in May/June with turf toe, two weeks in June due to back stiffness, and another two weeks in July with left wrist soreness that briefly popped up during the Arizona Fall League, costing him about another week. Unclear to what degree the injuries contributed to his down season at the plate, but certainly contributed somewhat. Summation: Potential bat-first utility type. Ceiling of an everyday regular. 2022 was a step back, but could partially be attributed to injuries. At his best, he has one of the most advanced hit tools in the system and one of the most polished in all of minor league baseball. Outstanding makeup and work ethic. Does not project to add much value defensively. Bat would be more valuable at second base, but will potentially play pretty much anywhere if he is unable to stick there. Injury history is somewhat concerning, and will need to be monitored after an injury-plagued 2022. #4 Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS Physical Description: Small, athletic. Very twitchy. Has grown since he entered the organization, but still is relatively slight of frame. Does not have a frame to add significant weight, but is sneaky strong for his size. Hit: Starts slightly open and utilizes a short, leg lift timing device. Stance, load, and swing are visually reminiscent of Mookie Betts. Gets his foot down and gets through with his hands. Quick hands, plus bat speed. Good bat control and contact skills. Aggressive approach that needs considerable refinement. Does not walk much and expands the strike zone often, but has the bat control to put the ball in play, leading to a lot of weak contact on pitches outside the zone rather than the strikeouts that might otherwise result from a similar approach. Will expand the zone particularly often against breaking balls. How his approach develops will determine where his hit tool ends up. Potential fringe-average hit tool. Power: Produces average exit velocities. Will show above-average power in batting practice to all fields. In-game power is more noticeable to the pull side. Potential average in-game power. Run: Plus speed. Speed plays both on the bases and in the field. Needs to improve baserunning instincts. Field: Versatile, standout defender. Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond. Best position is center field, but organization has also continued to get him reps at shortstop. In the outfield, has really good instincts. Takes really efficient routes and has plus-plus range. Routinely makes highlight reel plays. After exclusively playing the infield in 2018 and 2019, he began playing the outfield in 2021 and immediately showed plus defensive ability there. Named farm system's 2021 and 2022 Defensive Player of the Year. Arm: Plus arm. Quick release. Throws have good carry. Career Notes: Played in the Little League World Series for Curacao in 2012. Was scouted by former Red Sox pitching prospect Dennis Neuman. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Named to the 2022 MLB Futures Game. Finished the 2022 season ranked as a top 100 prospect by some outlets. Was named SoxProspects.com Player of the Year in 2022. Worked out with Team Netherlands at its Kingdom Series in November 2022, signaling that he may be considered for the team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Added to the 40-man roster in November 2022 to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 Draft. Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program. Entered 2023 as a consensus top 100 prospect. Summation: Potential bench utility player. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds considerable value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor. Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base. Bat lags behind, but has improved considerably in 2022. Approach is what holds him back now and will determine his ultimate value at the plate. Needs to cut down on chasing pitches out of the zone and improve swing decisions and quality of contact.

I was looking at our overall OF defense from 2022, which included more innings Duran, Cordero, Pham, Arroyo and others than either Kike or JBJ. (Also, Kike's D was not as good in '22 as in '21.)

Duvall: 117 best OPS+ season (2019) 114 2nd best (2020) (107 from 2019-2021) fWAR 11.1 in 3040 career PAs bWAR 10.4 career (4.5 from 2019-2022 and 2.4 per 650) Verdugo 123 best (short 2020 season) 113 2nd best (2019) (112 from 2019-2021) fWAR 7.2 career in 1957 PAs (about equal to Duvall if projected to 3,000 PAs) bWAR 8.4 (8.3 from 2019-2022 and 2.9 per 650)

Mondesi at SS and Story at 2B with Kike in CF would be a major improvement to our overall D.

Good point on Mondesi. Mondesi is a plus on D at SS (over Bogey), and a full season of Kike in CF would boost our OF D from what it looks like, now. BTW, our OF D was not that great, last year, as JBJ & Kike were not around, all year. OF innings 1306 Verdugo 696 JBJ 669 Kike 463 Duran 419 Pham 302 Ref 213 Cordero 108 Arroyo 65 Almonte 51 Davis 1364 Kike + JBJ 1496 Duran, Pham, Ref, Cordero & Arroyo 1306 Verdugo

I understand and don't disagree. I like Whitlock and Bello's (and Houck, who I prefer in the pen) chances more than some of the 4 vets, too. (Sale, Kluber, Pivetta & Paxton.) I'm just pointing out that we may also do well with all 4 vets staying relatively healthy and Whitlock starting 25+ games.

I never said he was heading down his path. I said they had very similar histories when both were 28-30 years old. Both show(ed) promise, but have/had recent injury issues. Paxton actually had 3 years in a row over 120 IP before joining the Yanks for the 2019 season, when he went 160 IP. You called him unreliable, back then. Rodon is at age 30, now. he has 310 IP over the last 2 years. Paxton had 296. Rodon only has 2 seasons over 120+ IP since 2018- Paxton had 3 in a row at age 30. That's all I'm saying. They had similar injury histories by age 29-30, and you called one injury prone and had little hope Paxton could stay healthy after age 30, but with Rodon, you have much higher expectations. Yes, there is merit to thinking 310 IP over the last 2 seasons is promising, but Paxton had very close to that at a similar time in their age progressions and injury histories. it's undeniable and far from "dumb" to compare the two.

Mix and match. We just need 5 at any given moment. I've always favored quality over quantity, but having so many promising SP'ers is nice, too. I just hope we don't have to "trial and error" it through 3-4 failures before we find the right 5. We can't afford too many losses, along the way. The vets (4): Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton The experienced RP/SP'ers (4): Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowsi The up and comers (2-3): Bello, Walter (Murphy?) I have to think that we can have 5 out of 10, at any given moment doing okay to well.

Our OF defense looks to be worse than 2022 at all 3 slots. If we can get Kike back in CF, it looks a lot better, as Duvall is better at the corner than Yoshida and Verdugo- assuming he plays over one in the OF. I'm hopeful we will be better, defensively, at Catcher. 1B is vastly improved. 2B should be worse, as Story was great at 2B in 2022. SS may be better. 3B is likely the same. Overall, we look to be bottom 5 or 10 in MLB defense. Our pitching will have to be sharper.

How about a platoon? Also,... When Yoshida or Kike (assuming CF) need a rest, both can play. When Turner needs a rest, Yoshida to DH, and both can play. When Devers needs a rest, Turner to 3B, Yoshida to DH, and both can play. Maybe we can keep both playing enough to keep them sharp and happy. (This assumes a healthy Story at SS and a healthy and productive Arroyo at 2B- maybe too much to hope for.)

I'd add Wink to that list, but I fully agree. If we need to fill 2 slots with any 2 from Bello, Crawford, Mata and maybe even Walter, maybe we'll still be fine.

Yes, it will most likely come down to the rotation. The first issue is, of course, health. I feel pretty confident in 4-5 of our SP'ers, when healthy. Guys like Mata and Walter may surprise, if they can stay healthy, too. The skill levels of our SP'ers, assuming no major age or injury-related regressions is pretty well proven. However, one should expect age regression (Kluber & Sale) and/or some time needed to return to form after dealing with injuries or surgery(Sale, Whitlock, Houck). Sale turns 34 in a few days and hasn't put together a full season of greatness since 2018. He did have an ERA+ of 118 from 2019-2022, but only logged 196 IP over those 4 years. It's hard to know, if he can even post a 118 ERA+ over 170+ IP, this year. Kluber turns 37 in 3 weeks and has 2 Cy Youngs under his belt, along with 3 other top 9 finishes. His last great year was also 2018. He has posted a 91 ERA+ since then, but did log 164 IP, last year. He posted a 112 ERA+ in 2021 in 80 IP with the Yanks, but it's hard to expect that over 160+ IP in 2023. I'm hopeful, but maybe just being a homer on Corey. Whitlock turns 27 in June, which is often peak prime for many pitchers. He is coming off an injury and has not gone over 120 IP since 2018 (in the minors.) He's got some nasty stuff, and the big question seems to be how many innings can he give us, not his talent level. Houck also turns 27 in June. He's posted some eye-opening numbers over his first 3 seasons in the bigs, but like Whitlock, it's about IP. He has a 150 career ERA+. His biggest struggle seems to point him towards long relief- not the rotation: .504 OPSA first time facing an opp .647 OPSA second time 1.017 third time, but the sample size is only 30 PAs. Pivetta just turned 30, so is still in prime. He's been pretty steady for us at a 99 ERA+ and 31+ starts a year. He may be one of the league's best 5th starter, if we can fill the top 4 slots with guys better than him. He's had some long stretches of solid pitching within each season, with us. My hope is he can put together s 32 start stretch like those shorter ones. Bello turns 24 in May and showed some promise after a rough first start or two, last year. He may be one of our biggest wild cards, but I'm very optimistic about his abilities. Paxton is 34 and may be healthy by April. He had over 150 IP in both 2018 and 2019 with a 112 ERA+ over those 2 seasons. 23 IP over the last 3 seasons is the killer, but this guy may still have one good season left in him. 34 is not all that old. 7 SP'ers and only 5 needed. We may get by with 4 pitching well or even 3 pitching very well, as long as the others don't suck. having mata, Crawford, Winckowski and Walter as ML ready depth may also help. I feel pretty confident we can find the right 5 to lift us to 2nd or 3rd place, but certainly 4th place is a reasonable expectation.

I was on vacation and missed that. No mention on talk radio.

He's also 1-6 with a 5.63 ERA in 9 World Series starts. (15-5 3.04 in other PO games.)

I'm thinking Cora might go with... 1. L Yoshida LF 2. R Kike SS 3. L Devers 4. R Duvall CF 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Turner DH 7. L Verdugo RF 8. R Arroyo 2B 9. L McGuire C

On this site, it needs to be guarded, defended and nurtured.