moonslav59

2020 does not count?

PLAY BALL!!!! Go Sox!

But, who is this "higher guest?"

Did you look at the issues most others have?

Minor League Baseball has agreed to a contract. Maximum organizational players will go from 180 to 165 in 2024. Some hefty salary increases: $4,800> $19,800 Complex $11,000> $26,200 A- $11,000> $27,300 A+ $13,800> $30,250 AA $17,500> $35,800 AAA Plus medical and pension improvements. No team reduction for at least 5 years.

Hell YES!

MLBTR reports... The Athletics have traded outfielder Cristian Pache to the Phillies in exchange for minor league right-hander Billy Sullivan, per announcements from both teams. The Phillies opened a spot on the 40-man roster by placing first baseman Rhys Hoskins on the 60-day injured list.

Red from Reading is the funniest.

Many likely know much of what is said, but some likely do not. I'm not sure how much anything affects these guys. True, many may have gone most of their lives hearing mostly glowing comments from everyone around them, and maybe they freak out, a bit, but I never felt it made much of a difference. I'm pretty sure a few players are affected. Maybe Yoshida will, but if he does well- no worries.

Again, I agree. I do think the negativity has been constant and excessive.

There is more to media than talik radio. Again, I don't think it matters. I do think friends might tell players what is being said about them.

The media will still bash those who do poorly more than most city medias, especially if they are being paid a lot. Again, I don't think it has much affect on 99% of players, if not more.

Cause ours is better (Or NOT)

I do think the Boston media is harsher than most, but I do think the whole "wilt under spotlight" thing is way overblown. Maybe a handful of players might have been affected, but it's hard to prove.

Yup. I still like the totality of the pre 2022 winter moves vs 2021, total value quality and quantity, despite the JBJ disaster and questionable Story signing.

I choose to believe alternative facts; Ort is not on the Sox. Kari Lake is the Governor of Arizona.

Okay. soxprospects lists Mondesi as on the 60 day. https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

So, he is a suspect, too- along with Turner, Duvall...

Agreed, yet only Yoshida, from your list, is a Bloom acquired player.

The cost of Story makes the needle move further on 2022 vs anyone in 2021. I was pointing out numbers of dice rolls that worked vs did not work. Only Renfroe worked in 2021, unless you count deadline moves. Only Story and JBJ did NOT work in 2022. It was more the returning players that let us down in '22- NOT Bloom dice rolls.

Agreed. If we hang around, or miss out due to Sale being hurt or sucking, that may help him stay another year. If once healthy players all get hurt, that may be a factor, too. If guys like Paxton and Arroyo miss most of the year, Bloom is not let off the hook. He knew what he got. Scouts loved Yoshida. True, Bloom made the choice, but is it all on him?

One could argue more dice rolls worked better in 2022 vs 2021, at least the winter ones. (Kike was a 2020 addition) 2021 dice rolls: Renfroe, Richards, Perez, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura 2022 dice rolls: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Story (JBJ trade) In season: 2021: Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles, Davis 2022: McGuire, Pham, Hosmer, EValdez & Abreu and M Ferguson & C Rosier

Fangraphs has the Sox rotation placing 13th- just ahead of Houston. Projected WAR and IP 2.6 Sale 140 2.6 Whitlock 132 1.7 Kluber 148 1.6 Bello 103 1.5 Paxton 121 1.3 Pivetta 152 0.7 Houck 52 0.3 Crawford 26 0.1 Mata and Walter Huh? Wha? I like our projections and all, but this one seems optimistic to me. Kluber and Pivetta look like solid number three starters, but their presence at the top of this list should alarm you. Getting 140 innings from Sale? He only threw 195 total from 2019 to 2022. The innings he does throw should be solid – he’s Chris Sale, still – but 140 sounds like a big ask at this point in his career. The same goes for Paxton’s 121 IP – he’s made six starts in the past three years. With him, I’m also concerned about how his stuff will look, given that he’ll be 34 and only recently started throwing off a mound again. A return to form would be a pleasant surprise, with the emphasis on “surprise.” The good news for Beantowners is that an exciting youth movement is brewing below Paxton on this depth chart. Whitlock has been nails as a reliever and acceptable as a starter, and the team wants him in the rotation if possible, though he’ll miss the start of the season as he rehabs from hip surgery. Bello lit the minors aflame before putting in solid work in his debut last year, and we think his stuff will lead to more strikeouts (and yes, lots of walks) this year. I think he’ll comfortably eclipse this innings total as an obvious replacement for the various injured Sox. That’s assuming he can stay healthy himself – he won’t debut until mid-April thanks to elbow soreness. Houck is ticketed for a bullpen role, but he can start in a pinch. Boston’s young hurlers might be able to rescue the rickety rotation. Consider me unconvinced, though. There’s too much bust and injury risk here for my liking. I’m not saying it can’t work out well. I just think that a prudent weighing of variables says that the Sox are running a large risk of ruin. Every team is two lost starters away from disaster, but the Sox seem more likely to run afoul of that problem than anyone else in this area of the list.

Fangraphs has Bello listed as a "breakout candidate..." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2023-breakout-candidates-pitchers/ Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox In the list of Greatest Decisions Ever Made, you’ll never find “picked a guy currently out with a forearm strain to have a breakout season.” But I’m still going to do it anyway, since it appears that Bello will be back from his current malady at the end of April. From FIP to xFIP to xERA to zERA, all the various run estimators that don’t use actual runs widely agreed that his rookie 4.71 ERA was highly misleading and that his pitching deserved better than that. ZiPS is convinced that he should have had eight more strikeouts and five fewer walks than his peripherals suggested, meaning that there’s even more room for his FIP to improve, or at least stay the same when he inevitably allows a few more homers than just the one in 57 1/3 innings. Bello can throw 98 and already changes speeds like a veteran; if his arm is OK, I think he’s could be just a little slider refinement away from being Boston’s best starting pitcher.

So, we have Story and Mondesi on the 60 day IL, and Alfaro on a minor league deal. That clears up some 40 and 26 man roster issues, for now, but some changes are bound to happen to both- maybe some within a couple weeks. Players coming off the IL and possible moves: Whitlock (early/mid April)> Ort to AAA Paxton (mid April)> Kelly to AAA Bello (mid/late April)> Bello or Crawinck to AAA Rodriguez (early/mid May)> Crawinck to AAA Mills (Mid May)> Mills to AAA When Mondesi or Story come off the 60, my guess is Chang will be demoted and Ort or Chang will be traded or DFA'd.