moonslav59

I fully understand that, and I think $150M/5 was highly irrational. $165M was irrational enough. More was absurd. I've said I'd have offered Alonso $5M more, so it's not about unwillingness to overpay. It's about a certain level of irrationality and who you choose to do it for. I was also for signing Polanco for more than what was offered. That one could have back-fired. I'm hoping we overpay for Suarez, but it's not going to be by $30M more than he deserves AND 1 to 2 years too long.

So, we replace DHam with a free Arenado. Okay.

The problem is Mayer can't play 3B and 2B and Anthony can't play either one. 1st Priority: Big Bat 2nd: 3B (maybe 2B) 3rd: #2 SP 4th: RP (LH'd?) maybe 5th is Catcher. Knowing this FO, we'll be lucky to add two from my top 4 list, so I'm not seeing why we reach for our 5th or 6th priority.

This might surprise some people: Sox leading OPS guys vs RHPs: (Returning Players Only) .903 Anthony .852 Duran .808 Abreu .743 Story .739 Mayer .732 Yoshida .723 Narvaez .720 Rafaela (career reverse splits, too) .718 Romy (reverse splits) Not too bad. .658 Campbell .618 DHam .503 Wong

And no more Refsnyder!!!!

It's thin in the minors, yes, and we did add a few catchers down in the low minors. We have 4 in the top 33 and 5 in the top 45, but Jo Garcia tops the list at #26. I'm fine with Narvaez, Wong and emergency catcher Contreras. AAA Catcher, Jason Delay, can be added the 40 if we need a fill-in. We have bigger needs, like 3B, SP and RP than Catcher depth, IMO.

Sonny Gray >>> Gallen Best fWAR seasons since 2023: 5.4 Gray '23 5.2 Gallen '23 4.4 Valdez '23 4.0 Valdez '25 3.8 Gray '24 3.7 Valdez '24 3.6 Gray '25 2.8 Gallen '24 1.1 Gallen '25 I'm not sure why people think the 30.5 year old Gallen is going to age well. Now, Valdez> Gray, but he's had "issues" with the Astros and he might be the anti-Breg type guy for the clubhouse. I'd rather have Ranger or trade for a Lodolo type.

I'm not worried about Narvaez and opening day. We do have Contreras, who was reportedly going to play some catcher in 2026 for STL in 2026. He should not be the FT C, for sure.

Fangraphs has Paredes projected for 2.3 FWAR (.798 OPS.) I think he does much better and maybe even bust-out better. I'm not sure why BTV has his value at 11.6, and Crawford nearly double that. I'd trade Crawford straight up, yesterday! They have Abreu at 27.4, but he does have 4 years of control to 2 by Paredes. I might offer Abreu for Paredes and Brian King. (BTV accepts that trade along with catching prospect Janek worth 7!) I'd trade Crawford for Paredes and Sousa.

I don't get why we'd trade Duran for that either. Maybe I like Narvaez too much?

I think if we told team's they can have Yoshida for $4-5M a year (their cost) we might get a couple calls. $3M, maybe a half dozen calls or more.

I think Dave really wants to keep Painter. How about Harrison & YRod for Bohm?

I'd rather have Mayer/Romy/Eaton at 3B and Romy/DHam/Sogard at 2B than a no-cost Arenado. Correction: I'd prefer a min wage Arenado over DHam, Sogard or Eaton.

Arenado's AAV is $3M less than what Breggie got. It's hard to take this idea seriously, unless they take Yoshida & Hicks. Even then, the trade would put us almost over the tax line.

No, the weird part is we think our top 3 starters all gave us 26+ GS and 145+ IP, but two were not really our top 3.

Arenado is already at Yoshida dump level, except he can play defense. His OPS will be 100-150 below Masa's. Masa for Arenado, okay. I'd still want Paredes, too.

To me, we've needed a #2 all long, even after the Gray signing. The big bat is still #1 in my mind.

I'm fine with an overpay, when needed, and $165M/5 was a major overpay. I'd have given $5M more than BAL for Alonso, so I'm not against overpays- just gross ones. I'd have been okay with $165M/5, but that was already past what I'd have paid by a year and $3M AAV, so what is the limit? Had he signed with us for $170M/5 or even $175M/5, I'd be glad we kept him, but I also think JH will probably be stingy, going forward, and the signing would be prohibitive on future adds, It sucks he's gone, but if we trade Phillips and Sandlin for Paredes, I'll be happier than Bregman at $180M/5.

To me, Paredes is the guy to go after, since KMarte is too expensive. He's got 2 years of control. BTV accepts Campbell for Paredes and Sousa, but I'd probably do one for one, or add Mullins for the two. (Maybe upgrade from Sousa to King?)

I'd trade two Phillips for Paredes! Okay, how about Phillips & Eyanson or Phillps & Sandlin or Mullins. My call is Campbell for Paredes. HOU needs an OF'er. It's not a dump. but KC's AAV is $7.5M, so maybe that can be used to add a pitcher.

I'm okay with Yoshida at DH- more okay than most, but I want to make room for Casas/Campbell/Romy. (If Duran is not traded, his slot is FT DH.)

I think, until maybe now, it's been lowballing on numbers and years and not the no-trade clause that has kept us from signing big-splash FAs. These are our largest FA signings from 2025 working backwards: All one year deals, unless noted. (extensions only listed to FAs) 2025: $40M Bregman ($120M/3 w opt-outs) $21M Buehler $10.8M Chapman (extended mid season to 1 year + option) $2.3M J Wilson 2024: $38.5M/2 Giolito $10M/2 Hendriks 2023: $32M/2 Jansen $21.7/2 Turner (turned down player option- was $11M/1) $10M Kluber $7M Duvall $2M Joely R 2022: $17.5M/2 Chris Martin $10M Paxton w option $8M/2 Diekman (traded mid season year 1) $7M Wacha $5M Rich Hill 2021: $14M/2 Kike (later extended for 3rd year at $10M) $10M Richards $5M Martin Perez $3M Marwin G (traded mid season) 2020: $6M Martin Perez $3M Moreland (traded at deadline) Largest deals from 2015-2019: $10M+++ only (not all that many and none between $18M and $68M! $217M/7 Price 2016 (traded after 2019) $110M/5 JD 2018 $95M/5 Pablito 2015 (DFAd) $88M/4 HRam 2015 (DFA'd) $68M/4 Nate 2019 (more like an extension) $18M/1 Uehara 2015 $13M/2 Moreland 2018 and Chris Young 2016

I'd mention Contreras and cout him and Gray as more than "bit parts," but certainly not big splashes.

Looks that way. I'm not sure just the refusal of the no-trade clause was the deal-breaker.

I think $165M/5 was an overpay, and guessing what JH's future budgets might be, I think we'd see much less additions had we outbid the Cubs, so I'm not torn up over this. It's still a major loss from the 2025 team that needs to be addressed. I'm still waiting for the Devers loss to be addressed, too, but I guess one could argue Contreras & Hicks come close to covering it for 2 more years, anyway. Gray's $21M = Buehler's loss, financially and Gio's loss in production, but we need a big bat. We need a 3Bman or possibly a 2Bman. One player might fit both needs. I still would like a #2SP'er, but I think that's a pipedream. Maybe we add a 3Bman (Paredes or Viento?) and a RP'er. That might get us close to a slight improvement over 2025. That would be very sad.