moonslav59

Doesn't it make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside? LOL

In bWAR Wacha 2022 blows Sale 2023 away.

I was all for signing Senga and did not think $75M/5 was too much. I admit, I did not know much about Eflin and wasn't upset we missed out on him, at the time. We did offer Nate a QO, and apparently more than what he ended up signing for. I remember wondering what we saw in Seth Lugo, and other name mentioned before we signed Kluber. It looks like any of the other 4 would have been much better than what we ended up getting. Bad luck? Bad GM? In reality, we should have signed 2-3 from those 5, and of one was Kluber, we'd have still been better off.

Story and Yoshida do not cost what Nola will cost, for one, but I do think the risk on signing the very best SP'ers is higher. One could point to Judge and argue it's not much different, although he was not a FA signing.

I totally agree, but is the success rate on $75M all that much better than $100M+ signings? True, you don't lose as much when they fail, but our plan proposed, here is to basically to get lucky with some FA signings. Every year, we can go back and select a few signings that worked out very well, and say, "We just need to do that." Well, yes, but even the Senga and Eflin signings had risk. Not everyone here would have been happy with those signings, when they happened. It's the hindsight calls that are 100%. Other SP'er signings near Senga money $75M/5: $72M/4 T Walker $68M/4 J Taillon $63M/3 Bassitt 2022 $77M/5 ERod (opt out) $71M/3 Stroman $56M/4 Jon Gray 2021 None $23M/3 Odorizi and TWalker Who fits the Senga profile, this coming winter?

It's not unreasonable to project that, but at his age, I don't think it's a solid bet he reaches .770-.780. Sure, he can, but is it a solid enough bet to count on? I do think the Yanks bet he can and do not upgrade at 1B, and I doubt they try and upgrade at catching, either. They will bank on bounce backs from Trivino and Higgy. They will slot LeMahieu somewhere as a FT'er, too. That could easily be two choices that end up below average. They will probably go with Stanton at DH, again, so that's 3 out of 9. They will add a CF'er and maybe LF'er, and try to get a SP'er and 2-3 solid pen arms. Is that going to be enough?

Yes, nobody is a 0.0 WAR but 18 pitchers were worse than Kluber's -0.4 fWAR, including... -0.7 Kopech -0.5 Syndergaard -0.4 Bumgarner, Severino, Manoah, Fleming & Rodon

I'd say Rich Hill "worked out" for $5M, too, but yes, the question exposes a weakness in the idea that buying SP'ers is the best plan. 1. We'd need to spend more than $5M/1 and $10M/1 (our 4 year range on SP'er signings) to get a better SP'er. 2. You'd need to not only beat our poor odds on big FA SP'er signings, but also the whole league's odds. The track record has been somewhere between bad and horrible for years. It's an outlier to have one work our well for the team, and the ones that do work are more like the Eflin signings than the Scherzer signing the year before Price's signing. Check out the records of the top pitchers signed since Price. It cannot look like a good plan.

What makes you think we will beat the long odds and actually sign a couple strong SP'er that end up being even decent signings? It is a choice ripe with failures after failures. Nobody wants to trade a guy like casas who could end up being the next Freeman or Olsen. Nobody. But, to think signing FA aces is a good idea, then I could easily say, "STOP!" I won't, of course, because we might need to do both to get a rotation worthy of playoff success. I'd love to see us sign a top FA SP'er plus Yamamoto from Japan, and maybe make a lesser trade for anotehr serviceable SP'er without needing to trade Casas, Mayer, Anthony or Teel, but the chances of us striking gold on all 2-3 choices is close to zero. The chance os trading for a solid pitcer that works out well is higher, despite the known loss of what you had to give up to get one. It's eassier to sign a FA 1Bman (like JT) to replace Casas than it is to outbid someone for Nola and then see that signing work out well for us.

I'm not saying it's beyond a chance Bloom just chose not to spend some money he was allowed to spend. His reasoning might have been that no deal seemed worth it in the long run, so he didn't bother to make one or two more winter or summer deals or winter signings. I do think Bloom was unfairly criticized for the early tenure situations, including the Betts/Price trade, and the discontent built up to a point where this year's collapse has caused more harsh criticism than PERHAPS he deserves. Even with the $6-10M left on the table, and saying that's on JH still does not excuse what happened this year. Bloom chose to focus more money on the pen and starting line-up than the rotation. Perhaps he never had enough to fix them all enough for us to be big playoff contenders, but we all saw the rotation being neglected beyond reason. He should not be let off the hook for that, Had we not signed Duvall and gotten 2 pictures, instead, even if they failed, I'd have felt better about the attempt. I'm not happy with that major choice made. I felt like last winter was Bloom's "make or break" and "legacy" winter, and I have not changed my position on that. While I don't think JH & Co. see last winter like I did, they must not be happy with all he spent on these results. Sure, our spending has dropped from top 3-5 to 12th t0 15th, but we are still spending, and we lost some deadwood money, like Price, and the only deadwood money left is Sale and maybe some guys Bloom has recently signed, like maye Story and Yoshida. I think Bloom will get another year, but if we suck, again, I can't see any justification keeping him around, unless they have viewed this as a 7-8 year rebuild process, which I doubt has even been discussed.

Of course, it isn't, but be honest: isn't it much easier to build a WS team or contender when you have a steady flow of low cost contributing players filling in many slots on your 26 and 40 man roster? Asking a GM to go into a winter with 18-20 slots to fill and a limited budget, like Bloom was handed to start his tenure is an impossible task when you also get zero help from the farm. Year two he had 12-14 slots to fill, a little bigger winter budget and one guy- Houck added from the farm (OK, your fave, Dalbec, too.) Year three he had it down to 7-9 slots to fill a bigger budget and some late arrivals from the farm, like Bello & Casas. Year four he saw a lot of salary lost, a pretty significant budget to work with and the beginning of Bello and Casas muturity, plus a surprise from Duran and Crawford, and it still was far from enough. We may never reach the point where our farm provides enough so that JH and whatever our GM is, only has to fill 3-6 slots every winter with outside additions via trades or FA signings. You are right. There is no guarantee, but what other plan is better? Should we count on only buying players via free agency, like the NYM and SDP? Should we empty the farm by trade, this winter? What is your idea of the best hope? To me, startin with a strong farm is the best way to get started.

He will be another year older in 2024 and started declining pretty quickly after 2019. It may not be a "stretch" to think he can be average in 2024, but I think the odds are against it. The 15th ranked 1Bman in MLB, now is at about .770-.780. Here are Rizzo's OPS numbers since 2020: .755 .783 .817 .706 He'll turn 35, next season. Why would .770-.780 be expected? No, it's not a stretch to think it could happen, but my list was supposed to be about how many slots can be viewed as solid for 2024? Solid average is not even asking for much. I see 4, maybe 5 if the starting 9. 3 maybe 4 SP'ers an unknown amount of RP'ers, when 2-3 years ago, you guys had 4-5 in the pen viewed as AVG or AVG+. Let's say you have 2. That's about 11 slots out of 26. You guys may be planning to spend big, this coming winter, but you are more than 3-4 slots away from being top contenders, again.

Indeed, and they have 9 games left vs DET, KCR and PIT.

Plus Houck and Whitlock had injury issues and never pitched 150+ innings, either. Paxton was the only guy I felt could start 32 games and have 180 IP, but he was the 5th starter. Kluber was similar to Sale and Paxton. 8-9 SP'ers with only one who rated to go 30/180. Yup.

I agree, but maybe the pendulum is swinging to the good. In the last few years we've seen a major uptick in decent pitchers called up: Bello Houck Whitlock Crawford Winckowski Before it was Brian Johnson, Hnery Owens, Ranaudo and Shawryn types.

Do you think it's 16th or somewhere between the highest ranking and 16th? If you believe it is likely 10th to 12th, it's still a big improvement. If you think it is likely 3rd to 9th, Bloom has done a great job rebuilding the farm under enormously changed environments which penalize teams like the Sox. Of course, all prospects are "suspects" to some degree, but on paper, he seems to have done a pretty good job, at minimum. We can start to judge the young players on the team that he had added, so far (maybe some are no longer all that young anymore,) but I think adding the context that most prospects, especially HS players drafted years ago, take 4-6 years to mature. With that in mind, this list does not look bad to me: Verdugo Pivetta Whitlock Schreiber Winckowski Refsnyder Wong Urias McGuire EValdez Reyes Abreu Current Bloom ranked prospects: 1. Mayer 2. Anthony 3. Bleis 5. Teel 6. Yorke 9. Zanetello 10. Romero 11. Drohan 14. Joh Garcia 15. Cespedes (moving up) 16. Meidroth 18. Hickey 19. Jordan + G Gambrell & Monegro (moving up), DHam, E R-C, Anderson, Alcantara, I & C Coffey and several more promising prospects farther away, right now. Maybe, I'm wearing pink glasses, but there are many "experts" who support the idea that are farm is much stronger. You seem to listen to experts who said the Yoshida signing was a gross overpay, or the Betts trade was an "F Grade" by everyone, but for some reason want to distrust them on this one- or believe the one service that ranks us the lowest. BTW, the MLB site's ranking service has never been held up in high regard.

I said I "think" he will again. I've also repeatedly said "How soon is now?" We went from the Sale and Bogey extensions in spring of 2019 (both less than 6 years guaranteed) to the spring of 2022 with no major contracts, at all. That's 3 long years, which was unprecedented in JH's tenure. Certainly a big sign "this is not the same JH," but then we've had 3 major contracts given out in less than 2 years, although one kicks in next year. Story for 6 years- the first 6 or more year deal since Price. Yoshida for 5 years. Devers for 10 years at nearly 50% more money than Price's $210M/7 deal. I think this is evidence enough to think he is starting to spend more and may "go for it," again. To me, I might not call it a "lifetime pass," but if he remains our owner until the day I die, and we never win another ring or even seriously contend again, I will die happy he was our owner. I went over 30 years thinking I'd never see one ring. I got to the point, where I told people I'd take 10 last place finishes for just one ring, so that's the perspective I come from. I don't expect otehrs to s hae my perspective, and to each his own, but I am still thrilled he has been our owner. I'd rather have him than Steve Cohen or the old Steinbrenner. I'm not going to predict "this is the year" JH decides to spend, again. I thought maybe last winter would/could be it. I think he waits until a window is set, then pounces, and maybe he hasn't thought that window has been set since pre-2018, but I still think that is his underlying philosophy on spending. He did not want to spend like Cohen to fill 5-6 slots to make us a top contender. Does he feel like we are 2-3 big slot fills away from a ring in 2024? IDK. Maybe. Maybe he thinks the window starts in 2025. Maybe he stopped thinking about windows and you are right, he just wants to keep our spending between 12th and 18th and put together semi-contending teams until it's right to sell the team for an ungodly profit. I don't know what his future plans are, and maybe wishful thinking is clouding my judgement, but I do have some evidence to show the upswing in spending may be at hand. The Devers extension kicks in in '24. He's in his peak prime, now. If ever there was a time for a "window" and a splurge in spending, it would be in 2024 or 2025. With Jansen and Martine udner contract for just one more year, I'm guessing it will be 2024. Young players like Casas, Duran, Wong, Urias, Rafaela, Abreu, Bello, Crawford and others looking to maybe get even better, the foundation looks good enough to me to think we are 2-3 big additions away from being a top contender. I admit I am often overly optimistic, but I do try hard to stay realistic. I respect your position, and you have evidence to back your position up, too- like the fact that we are falling in the spending rankings and have been for an unprecedented 4-5 years in a row.

You mean not offering more to make deals happen as "backing away?" I heard we kicked the tires on Verlander, so certainly there was interest in doing something very bold. Settling on just Urias and no pitching at all, does seem like a huge letdown to an ownership group that must have been discussing Verlander and his contract costs. Maybe Bloom's timidity will be his downfall. I always thought he was mostly just following the priorities and guidelines set by those above him, namely build up the damn farm and foundation of young major leaguers on the 26. I think has done both of those to some extent. Maybe not enough, but I do think our young core looks pretty good, right now with a steady flow of incoming prospects looking all set.

Perhaps the two most important thing an owner does to insure his team's success is to spend a lot and choose the right GMs and core decision making team. JH has spent a to of money and has shown he has been willing to go above and beyond when it looks like one more piece is needed. There has been a long lull, now, but I don't think this is the "new JH." I think every GM he and this leadership group has hired have been excellent choices for the needs of the team at the times of the hirings. (Yes, even choosing Bloom as a rebuild GM.) I am far far away from calling for an ownership change, and not just out of fear of who might buy the team and what their outlook might be. I do think the team we have now is improving- even if way too slowly for most of us to tolerate.

The rebuilding started in 2019. Selling at this past deadline, or the one before would have just been part of a process that began long before then. BTW, your pessimism was well-founded.

Without knowing who would buy the team from JH and what they would do on spending, I'd say, "Be careful what you wish for." I happen to think JH spends in cycles and will, again, but this has been a long stretch and we have reached a spending ranking lower than we've seen in decades and decades. I'm concerned, too. Honestly, though, I'd like you and others to answer this: If you had to guess who is responsible for not spending right up to the tax line to improve our chances in 2023, who would you say it is? Bloom? JH and the leadership group? I just can't imagine a GM being given $6-10M or whatever it is to spend and choosing not to use it. Am I in the minority on this?

I'm not sure I'd use the word "excellent," as the Yanks are sucking, too.

Lambasted, yes, but I am still very far away from hoping we have an ownership change Very much further away than wanting a manager and or GM change, too..

Eflin might have been enough, alone (instead of Kluber) to make us still be in his race, as we speak. Getting Eflin and Wacha, instead of Kluber might have even been doable while keeping us under the tax line. (Non tendering Brasier could have made that a surety, assuming Eflin would have taken more money to come here.)

You have been spot on, all morning, and I don't disagree, here, but I do think the budget, especially if Bloom was told to stay $6-10M under the tax line, played a major role is what happened. We needed to build up the pen, badly. Nobody disputes that. One could argue, we could have used one more Chris Martin, but I think Bloom did a fine job maximizing his return on investments made to the pen. Not signing Martin or Jansen, so we could add another SP'er would not have been a good choice. We needed to replace some offense and fill the SS position, while also starring down the fact that our OF was one of the worst in MLB, last year and in my 50 years of being a Sox fan. He had to spend there. One could argue, he should have spent more on JT and Duvall. so we'd have them for more than just one year. It was a huge but winning roll of the dice to not spend on catching. (I recall some posters wanting us to go big an a FA catcher.) He spent pretty big on the OF with Yoshida and Duvall, and it could easily and rightfully be argued that the money spent on Yoshida (and Kike from the summer extension) to be spent on pitching. That looks to be on Bloom, but there was talk that the Sox system had been super high on Yoshida for years, so maybe signing him was more of a group choice than Bloom insisting on it. Still, he's the the guy making the choices, so that has to be a valid criticism. Bloom did not spend much on 1B/DH. The JT signing was masterful, except in length. The dice roll on Casas worked, too. The dice roll on Kike & Co. at SS was perhaps almost as big a blunder as neglecting the rotation. The fact is, he spent on the pen, the OF, DH/1B and was mostly a success in those areas, as a whole. Robbing Peter to pay Paul was something most of us felt and still feel he should have done, and that's on him. I'm not arguing Bloom having $6-10M more would have solved the rotation problem, but it could have helped. (Wacha cost less. Eflin or Nate over Kluber would fit, and so on...) Bloom needed to do more for the rotation than he did, There is no sugar coating that. The 8-9 guys we had looked okay, but okay rotations rarely reach glory.