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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Back to the ALE cellar. Damn, this sucks!
  2. moonslav59
    Now, they'll bitch about brining Wink in, too.
  3. moonslav59
    You always crack me up.
  4. moonslav59
    Crawford has been damn good. I think the idea was he'd be damn good, tonight, and we could use Wink, tomorrow. Maybe the match-ups looked better for Crawford, but it just did not work out. Maybe our pen mounds are the wrong height.
  5. moonslav59
    Here is a recent scouting report that I guess should be viewed as "Fact" by Stork reasonings (which is in itself an oxymoron.) Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. Already took a massive step forward during the 2022-23 offseason adding a cutter and increasing his velocity by a full grade. Now profiles as an athletic left-hander who will show four average-or-better pitches and a solid command and control profile. Strong pitchability and pitch utility. Can show hitters four unique pitches in distinct velocity bands that move in different directions. Changeup is a major league-quality out pitch and gives him a weapon against right-handed hitters. Cutter and curveball both are effective also and will flash bat-missing ability. Fastball is very effective at generating weak contact. -soxprospects.com Sounds like any hope of "value" is totally unfounded by facts.
  6. moonslav59
    Someday, someone might say, "We should have traded him while he was still in A+ ball, and Hugh was right."
  7. moonslav59
    I took you off ignore to see the absurdity and get a laugh. 1. Scouting reports are opinions not really facts. 2. Back end starters have "value." (I never said I valued him as an ace to be or even a #3 or 4.) 3. The guy has some value. We got Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez. Fact, right?
  8. moonslav59
    Thanks for the warning. I'll just check out of the game thread until the 8th or 9th, unless we are up 14-2, early.
  9. moonslav59
    The Rays won, again. 2 in the 7th and 2 in the 8th for a 4-3 win over the Cubs. BAL lost and may be coming down to earth. We need to win these games to gain on these teams ahead of us. One at a time.
  10. moonslav59
    Someone on this site likely believes it.
  11. moonslav59
    I don't disagree, but when I look closely, I'm not so sure their formula is off by too much. SP'ers are very important when they give 150+ IP, and although late innings are often higher leverage and of more importance, often times early inning situations are very important, too. So many later inning games are more or elss out of reach, too. No doubt, traditional closers are used almost exclusively in very high leverage situations, and just about every IP is of high value, but it usually is 40-55 innings like that. I think SP'ers might pitch 100 innings of low to mid leverage situations, by they also have plenty of high leverage situations where a game can be won or lost early. It's hard to know just how far they are off in their WAR calculations. It seems like closers do get short-changed, while maybe the rest of RP'ers seem pretty close to accurate, so I guess I am mostly agreeing with you.
  12. moonslav59
    I do, too, but by how much, and don't they adjust, already?
  13. moonslav59
    15 of our 28 wins are come from behind wins. We've also has a few games, where we came from behind, then lost, later. It's a big part of this team's M.O., in my opinion., We have 5 wins, when trailing in the 5th. We have 4 wins when trailing in the 8th and several near misses, like last night.
  14. moonslav59
    Yes, and not just more- but better ones, too.
  15. moonslav59
    You mean high leverage innings? 2022 Red Sox High Leverage PAs Against/ Total PAs Against: 123/773 Pivetta 119/257 Schreiber 87/460 Nate 84/515 Wacha 80/247 Houck 76/193 Strahm 70/311 Whitlock 67/268 Bello 64/176 Barnes 62/171 Diekman 58/263 Brasier 52/111 Robles 52/526 Hill Certainly, as a percentage, RP'er have a much higher "leverage" influence, but starters still have a lot, too. Look at Low leverage PAs 297 Pivetta 222 Hill 179 Davis 166 Wacha 152 Sawamura 137 Wink 136 Brasier 132 Nate 131 Danish 126 Crawford 108 Whitlock 100 Houck I'm not sure how WAR weighs these factors, or if the adjust "enough," but I'm not sure the current set up is all that inaccurate.
  16. moonslav59
    Nobody disputes that. The debate is about what we expected before the call was made for Joely. Some of us obviously felt he was a bum all along. Some were not so sure. BTW, some felt Crawink were bums, too.
  17. moonslav59
    Indeed, B-R surely does not have him ranked near 72nd. I should just stay out of these single game manager decisions. To me, too much is unknown to the casual or even serious fan. Too many moving parts.
  18. moonslav59
    You continually assume how a team is doing in the first few innings strongly projects what they will do to finish the game. It's not like Cincy has a great pen, even if they used better ones right after Lively was pulled. This team has often looked bad to start a game, only to explode later on. It's one thing this team is known for.
  19. moonslav59
    They could adjust upwards even further, but I'm not sure it would be more accurate or fair. IMO, SP'ers who go 150-210 IP vs RP'ers who go 50-80 should be worth much more, even if they don't pitch as many high leverage innings as many RP'ers do. When I look at RP'er WAR, I always use how they compare to ther RP'ers as a guide to determine how good they are. Like Joely is ranked 72nd among all RP'ers with 80+ IP from '21-'22. That's pretty good, despite having just a +1.0 fWAR in those 2 years, combined. (BTW, I used the same methodology defending the Barnes extension, and how did that work out? LOL!)
  20. moonslav59
    A 1-0 game should always b e "winnable," even we are being no hit. As it turned out, our offense scored more than 2 runs. At the time the choice was made, the game was winnable.
  21. moonslav59
    Yes, it was a big swing and miss- emphasis on " big" in several contexts. It wasn't like he didn't try. Adding Changs should have been enough depth. I don't blame a GM for not sufficiently planning for a great 3rd and 4th stringer at any position. Blaming him for Story and Mondesi is clearly fair game..
  22. moonslav59
    It is a factor, but Lively pitching a complete game was not a given. If using Wink in a 1-0 game was not right, I'm not sure what is. I'm not complaining about Cora's choice. I am not privy to what all the factors were, at the time. Joely was a pretty good pitcher from 2021-2022, and there was no way to know, he'd suck. Had he brought in Pivetta, it would be different.
  23. moonslav59
    I'm not sure why Cora did not choose Wink or Craw. Maybe he planned on using them later. I'm not sure how our not hitting would matter much about bringing in a top RP'er in a 1 run game, but I get your point.
  24. moonslav59
    Also... Springs Schreiber Wink
  25. moonslav59
    Good stuff. "Best season" might have been good to add to your post. Since IP is a big function of fWAR, I will include IP along with fWAR for the best RP'ers since 2000 (all seasons): 29.2/907 Mo 22.7/785 Jansen 20.8/660 Chapman 20.1/708 Kimbrel 19.8/752 Nathan 19.2/710 Papelbon 16.3/976 F Rod 16.2/650 Wagner 15.7/762 Robertson 15.5/762 Soria 15.3/686 Betancourt 13.4/754 Dotel 13.4/464 Liam H Notables with lower IP 12.2/378 E Diaz 11.9/378 Gagne 11.4/451 Doolittle 11.2/392 Betances Koji's season was remarkable, because he wasn't the closer, all year.
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