moonslav59

Every now and again the dreams come true. 4 times in 20 years is enough for me to keep dreaming. Hell, I was dreaming for 50 years before 2004, with no payback.

What worries me most about Bader is his .635 OPS from 2022 to 2023, and the fact he only had 657 PAs in those two seasons, combined. He's only 29, so maybe he can get back to the .784 OPS he had from 2020-2021 or even the .745 he had from 2018-2021. His major plus is the .824 career OPS vs LHPs, but that is the short-side platoon slit, and his defense doesn't quite make him a FT player, IMO. (.667 v RHPs) I would not pay him what he will get to be a platoon/defensive replacement CF'er. He does beat the crap out of Dugo's career .665 OPS vs LHPs, and he can play CF very well, but to me, that is not enough.

Nobody but you understands this? I've heard many say these same things multiple times. I'd say most of us realize it is a long season, and just slight variances can have a major impact over a 162 game season for a player and a team. Look at right now, some of us think we are 2-3 players from being a serious contender after back-to-back 78 win seasons. Isn't that proof that you are not alone?

While it may not be "easy" to add 2-3 top player to our roster, this winter, one near sure-fire method is to just bid more and more, until you win the auction. We absolutely have to choose correctly, but I'm not sure Yamamoto is a sure bet. I love his age and possibilities, but it could be a disaster signing. That is, however, true of any big signing. If we can trade some highly-regarded prospects for one top pitcher, the budget part will have gotten a lot easier and make outbidding others for 1-2 players we really want more likely. I know many think of this prospect or that prospect as "untouchable," and some don't want to trade any of our top 5-6 prospects, but to get a team-controlled younger pitchers with TOTR stuff, it will be costly. Trading for a guy who is already an ace, like Burnes would not really be a good idea, unless we can extend him at a .reasonable cost, and that is rarely a certainty. Let's say we trade 2-3 prospects for Burnes and sign Yamamoto. Extend Burnes. I'd still love to see us sign a 3rd SP'er- maybe Morton on a 1 yr deal or someone like Seth Lugo. (Maybe trade Dugo for a good LH RP) Sign Duvall and keep Urias for his last arb year. This probably has a 0.0001% chance of happening, but I think we can do it and stay under the second tax line, so why not? SP: Burnes, Yamamoto, Bello, Lugo, Pivetta/Sale LR: (Pivetta,) Houck, Whitlock, Crawford SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber C: Wong & McGuire 1B: Casas (Duvall) 2B: Urias & Reyes SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Duran & Refsnyder (Yoshida) CF: Rafaela & Abreu RF: Duvall (Abreu) DH: Yoshida Others on the 40: SP: Gambrell, Drohan, Perales (Hageman or Walter?) RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Murphy, Robertson (Mata or Mills?) C: Scott 1B: (Dalbec?) 2B/DH: EValdez SS: DHam (OF: Rosier not on 40)

There are so few good OF'ers and RHBs on the market, it might take 3 years to get Duvall.

I agree, except for thinking "everyone ignores or forget" the season is long.

Yes, that is what I said after the one sentence you copied of mine. I do think DD might have been able to convince JH to rob Peter to pay Paul. Bloom had no such option to even try. This is why I blame Bloom less than DD, but yes, if JH was firm on not paying Betts, then the blame is 100% JH, 0% DD and 0% Bloom.

. True, especially for the types of players DD traded for, but guys like Sale were a bargain. Bloom did end up spending some money in 2020, but just a fraction of what he lost in Betts, 1/2 Price, Porcello and others. Best case scenario, maybe he trades Price, Groome and Dalbec for nothing but full salary relief. He does not replace Porcello. He does not extend Sale. He keeps Betts for his arb year, but then what? I just can't see any way to make it work, unless we raise the budgets of 2020, 2021 and maybe even 2022-2023. I don't think any GM could have built a winner under those circumstances, at least until 2022. The 2021 season, notwithstanding, seems like a miracle, now.

And, that trade off in extremes also lead to what foundations each GM left for the next one.

I do think DD had a better chance at extending Betts than Bloom did. He also spent a ton on Sale, Bogey, Nate and JD as a FA, instead of Betts, but to me, I think JH and the top guys made the call on not giving Betts "what it would take."

Certainly none like the higher ranked ones he had already traded, but he did not trade Chavis, Groome, Casas, Houck, Duran, DHern or Dalbec. It's hard to know, if he asked to do so, and was told not to, or their trade value, at the time, was so low, he could not find a return worth the effort.

No. Betts had a final arb year for 2020. He has to pay him in 2020, if he doesn't trade him. Paying him $29M means cutting $29M, elsewhere, plus the $16M for half-Price. The budget cut would have been for 2021 and beyond, but we'd still be paying full Price for David.

I agree, Bloom failed. How could any GM have gotten the 2020 budget down to what it was and built a winner for 2021? The second part is about trading prospects. I don't think I'm wrong to think it became an organizational philosophy not to trade any for almost 5 years. I don't think Bloom insisted on this. My evidence is that even DD made no significant prospect trades in his last 1.5 seasons with the Sox. That guideline or mandate, or whatever you want to call it, came from above. Maybe DD or any other GM would have done better than Bloom, but I firmly disagree that "Bloom made more of the circumstances" than he was handed, but for those who feel he was the one who chose to trade Betts and cut the budget and hoard all the highly ranked prospects, I can see how you view it that way.

In theory, he he kept Betts, he'd still have had to cut the budget for 2020, somehow.

Agreed, and the funny thing is, I view the winter before 2021 as worse choices made than prior to 2022 and 2023. One major difference was at the deadlines (and later waiver additions): 2021: Added Schwarber, Robles, Rios, Davis, Shaw and Iggy. Almost all made significant contributions. 2022: Traded Vaz and others for mostly future assets like Abreu, EValdez and Rosier while whiffing on Pham & Hosmer. McGuire was one minor plus. 2023: Added Urias, although I'm not sure adding Verlander and others would have turned us into a playoff team

I think admitting we are two solid starting pitchers away from being a pretty solid playoff contenders would be admitting Bloom got some things right, along the way to his dismissal. Bell is right in saying adding two studs is not easy, even with enough money and tradeable prospects to add 3-4. You have to pick the right ones. We can't pick the David Prices, Pablitoe's and HRam's like the past. We need to be precise on our choices, which is against the odds, unless you add 4, hoing 2-3 work for a couple -three years. We may be in the minority, Randy, but I am excited about the foundation we have going forward. Does Baltimore and Atlanta have better foundations? Hell, yes, but we are headed in the right direction, and now need to pivot towards making major acquisitions that work well. I fully understand the idea that Bloom was not going to be the guy to trust doing that, and it's not about injuries to Story or a slow start by Yoshia. Getting the "right guy" takes boldness and decisiveness. The next GM better be both.

Do you think DD would have been allowed to trade Mayer, Rafaela, Duran, Bello, Casas or others had he stayed around? Remember, he traded no major prospects after the 2018 deadline, and that was likely going to continue. In dreamland, we can envision he extended Betts and not Sale, had more to spend, and chose wisely on what overrated prospects to trade (like he did before.) He could have traded Chavis, Mata and Groome, when their stock was highest. Later, he might have traded Dalbec, DHern and Jimenez. I seriously doubt DD would have wanted to be here under the circumstances Bloom faced. Change the circumstances for DD, then we should for Bloom, too. IMO, keeping DD around would have only worked, if the parameters changed, too.

I don’t get your fixation on the underdog thing. Did anyone think we were favorites at any point since day one in Bloom’s term? The 2020 team was a mess and a major underdog.

He rebuilt the Tigers with money and by trading prospects. The parameters would have had to have changed, but then you have to think how Bloommight have done had he spent millions more and traded Mayer, Duran and others.

I would not sign either with the idea of a platoon. I would sign either to play FT, however.

Like as a platoon and defensive replacement?

If they sign Duvall and trade Dugo, he'd be the FT RF'er. It would take Duran, Rafaela and Abreu all doing significantly better than him to dislodge him from his FT position. 2023 PAs and OPS 602 Dugo .745 580 Yoshi .783 (to DH?) 362 Duran .828 353 Duvall .834 243 Refsny .682 89 Rafaela .666 85 Abreu .862 It looks obvious that a healthy Duvall is locked into a FT OF slot, even with Dugo and Duran on the roster.

He's 27, which is not old, but the 4 years will bring him to his age 31 year. That is still "prime," but on the cusp of the down slope, in general. I'm happy we have 4 years of control. I don't see a rush to extend, now. If he explodes in 2024, I'll regret having that opinion, but we'll still have 3 more years after '24.

He was amazing on offense in about a half season's PAs.

I was responding to the point about Durans OPS over a 362 sample size. Dalbec's poor D and positional offset killed his WAR. I loved what I saw from Duran, and I am excited about how he might do in 2024. His improvement on D was near miraculous. What's not to like? My point is, the rest of the profile on Duran makes this 360 sample size something I need to see more of to believe in an $80M deal. I would not sign him to $60M/5. He has 4 years left at pre-arb and arb costs, already.