moonslav59

Most college drafted pitchers take 4 years to develop and actually start contributing at the ML level- minimum, except for very few exceptions. HS players take 5-6 or more. I stand by my 4-6 years for all pitching prospects as the vast majority fall in that range. Look it up. BTW, TBR had a pretty bad hit and miss rate on pitchers drafted. They are best known for scavenging other team's rosters and farm systems and acquiring good pitching, like Springs from us. Yes, they are known for developing some very well. Not a single poster disagrees on the idea that we need to improve our pitching prospect development system. Nobody. It's not an easy task, and if we have not done enough to do that, so far, that is a big mark against Bloom & Co. I'll drive that bandwagon. However, how will we know he hasn't or has done it until at least 4-6 years have gone by? I've already seen improvement on the pitchers we have called up since Bloom took over: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Wink and Bello are better than any group of 5 since Theo. You assume we have done nothing. Maybe you are right, but it takes time to know, and you seem to expect aces in 3-4 years. You are in a tiny minority on that opinion. You point to Price and Sale and you are right. They may have helped us win in 2018, but they did not earn their money. What about others not from our system? Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and ERod? Those guys have worked out better than Lester, Buch, Masterson and Bello. I'm all for developing aces. I'm all for drafting better pitching, but no GM drafts pitching just because they are pitchers. They draft the best available player and maybe, just maybe, use position as the tie-breaker.

Yes, and it's not like adding Bernardino to the list of Bloom's prospects added moves the needle all that much. If you don't count him, then he counts on the "gems in the rough" category and maybe moves the needle n that grade by 1/4th of a grade level.

I'm all about adding to the top of the rotation and never from the bottom. Signing a #5 is a waste, unless you plan on him being your #6 or rotation depth. The point about the "wisdom" of waiting is from a top brass budget angle. It's a waste to sign a $30M pitcher for a team destined to miss the playoffs, anyway. Offense is more exciting for fans of losing teams or .500 teams. I fully understand the value of having at least 2 beasts of burden at the top of a rotation. One is never enough. Right now, we have none.

Well said. I believe JH & Co will spend very big, again and soon. I don't see the value in waiting until 2025 or 2026. We only have Dugo, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin for one more year. Why not start, this winter. You can replenish for 2025 with the help of Sale's expiring contract. Devers is in peak prime. Story and Yoshida will be past prime, soon. Those are our biggest investments, right now. Why wait any longer? Our core of maturing young players with 1-3 years under their belt is at its highest numbers in many years: Casas, Duran, Wong, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock & Wink. Our core of veteran role players with some history of success is enough to set up a situation whereby only 3-4 major slots need to be filled, this winter, which is the fewest since 2019: Dugo, Urias, Reyes, McGuire, Refsnyder, Schreiber and long shot Sale. On top of all this, we have a few exciting young players looking to bust onto the scene and win a FT or major role position on the team: Rafaela, Abreu and maybe even EValdez, Rosier or longer shots like DHam, S Scott, Meidroth, Gambrell, Mata, Murphy, Robertson, Guerrero or Walter. Returning from injury and possible depth: Joely, Kelly, or Mills. To me, our 2024 looks very well set up for us to think about adding quality over quantity. Just 2 key additions to the rotation could be enough. Adding a big RH'd bat and a pitcher for rotation/pen depth would be welc ome, too. I see only 4 key players needed, this winter. That has not been the case since before Bloom took over.

...and finish above the Yanks. I'm still hoping we can pass the Jays, but it might take a sweep of the 3 remaining games with them, and that seems highly unlikely. (Note: all our series with TOR have been sweeps- two by us and one by them.)

To me, that has been the biggest "mistake," but I also see the wisdom of waiting to sign a top FA, until the last moment right before you think the window is open. Had we thought the window was going to be 2024-2027, for example, why sign a 31 year old stud pitcher back in 2021?

Yes, weak opps, but the back up QB did very well, yesterday.

I get that, but I think Yoshida is eligible for the ROY Award. Also, some think the Japanese professional level is about the same as the AAA professional level.

A look at the 2024 Lux Tax Budget: $M 29.1 Devers 26.6 Sale (last year) 23.3 Story 18.0 Yoshida 16.0 Jansen (last year) 7.5 Martin (last year) 4.7 Whitlock 4.2 Joely (option given?) 2.0 Refsnyder Sub Total: 131.4 Signed (128.3 no Joely and $500K buyout) Arb Est 9.5 Dugo (3 of 3) 8.5 Pivetta (3 of 3) 5.1 Urias (3 of 4) 1.5 McGuire (2 of 3) Sub Total: 156.0 (about 152 w/o Joely) 17.0 Player Benefits 13.0 Pre arbs on 26 1.3 40 man players in minors 1.7 0-3 year bonus pool $189M before any additions $48M below first tax line ($237M) $68M below second tax line ($257M) IMO, we need 2-3 SP'er and maybe one big RH'd bat (CF/RF/2B?) In reality, we might add 2 SP'er, 1 RP'er and 2 everyday players, because we usually go for quantity over quality. 5 Player possible budget at tax line ($48M:) $20M SP $7M SP $7M RP $7M CG (RH'd) $7M UT 5 Players at 2nd lone ($68M) 30M SP 17M SP 7M RP 7M CF 7M UT 4 Players at $68M $30M SP $20M SP $10M Utility (RH'd CF/2B) $8M RP

1. You assume drafting pitchers means we end up with a top starter in 4-6 years. 2. You seem to want us to draft by position of need, instead of drafting by who you think has the best chance of being a productive player in 4-6 years, regardless of position. 3. The method of not drafting and developing top pitchers and getting our rotation via trades and free agency has worked 4 times for rings and several other times for damn good runs. BTW, I asked to check out teh record of top FA pitchers signings, recently. I ask you to check out the record of pitchers drafted highly in recent drafts (and those are pitchers drafted by teams we think are better at developing than we are.) Neither method has a good track record. We have a good track record of drafting every day players.

Interesting take.

Except for 3 long term deals signed in the last 16 months.

I thought you respected fWAR more than I do. Urias is not even close to 30. ERA- is more kind to Nola, but yes, Gray has been much better. (I should add him to my top 5.) ERA- 2022 to 2023 58 Kershaw 1 60 Verldnader 3 64 Ohtani 5th 12 Gray 74 17 Snell 75 18 Wacha 75 21 Urias 76 38 Montgomery 83 42 ERod 86 48 Nola 88 49 Stroman 88 50 Eflin 88 51 Braxton 89

Here are the current SP's rankings for our pitchers and their ERAs in 2023: SP'ers 7. Perales 4.21 8. Wikelman 2.88 11. Drohan 6.48 13. Walter 3.07 21. Mata 5.61 25. E R-C 2.53 29. Monegro 2.43 32. Dobbins, 33 Hoppe, 34. Bastardo, 35. Rogers, 40. Paez, 43. Gambrell, 48. I Coffey, 51. Liu

I'm liking Gambrell more and more, but yes, others like Drohan, Walter, Murphy and E R-C are not lighting the world on fire, or are hurt.

I did this to prove how none of us will agree on who belongs in te top 5-6, yet we bash GMs for choosing wrongly. Insulting Gray? Yes, I did, but you insult Nola. Top fWAR since 2018: 4. Nola 24.7 13. Gray 17.1 15. Snell 16.5 24. Giolito 14.7 28. ERod 13.4 29. Stroman 13.2 28. Urias 12.4 44. Ohtani 11.8 49. Montgomery 10.9 54. Flaherty 10.2 2020-2023 4. Nola 15.8 16. Gray 11.1 17. Kershaw 11.0 21. Urias 10.8 22. Ohtani 10.7 (pitching only) 24. Montgomery 10.4 29. Giolito 9.5 33. Snell 9.0 42. Stroman 8.0 45. ERod 7.6 2022-2023 4. Nola 9.4 10. Ohtani 7.9 15. Gray 6.9 23. Snell 6.3 25. Montgomery 6.2 26. Kershaw 6.2 44. Stroman 4.6 46. Urias 4.5 (Like I said, I placed him in my top 5 dues to his age.)

Wikelman with a nice start with POR 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 0BB, 5K (2.45 ERA)

I agree on the lack of improving the development of pitchers. I'm not sure if the arrivals of Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Wink and Bello is some signal things are improving, but it might be. I think there has been one very consistent plan from the start, under Bloom- the build up of teh farm and young player foundation on the 26. His highest ranked player traded was Aldo Ramirez (Schwarber) Nearly every significant trade, even the ones for vets, included prospects coming with the vet. Wong and Downs with Dugo Seabold with Pivetta Wink, Gambrell and others with Franchy German with Ottavino DHam & Binelas with JBJ Not to mention all the straight vets for prospects deals, including: Abreu & EValdez for Vaz It's the one consistent and almost always followed plan or priority in Bloom's 4 years plus the last year of DD'd reign.

Who is your top 5 or 6. We are already seeing some wild disagreements on the top ones.

Not that you are doing anything differently than anyone else, but it sounds like confirmation bias. If anyone says something like we believe in, we tend to believe it (and then quote it.)

My list (not in any order) Ohtani (not someone we will sign Nola Yamamoto Snell Urias (due to his age) Second Tier: Sonny Gray 33 Kershaw 35 Montgomery 30 Giolito 29 Flaherty 27 .

Who would be on the "short list" of maybe 5-6 top SP'ers where we hope to add 2, but might be lucky to add one, this coming winter? My guess is, most lists will have just 1-2 common names- maybe 3. It's not so easy to project who the best will be, then it's sort of like roulette on choosing the right one or two. Then, the player needs to want to play for you, and you have to offer a competitive offer, if not the most.

It's hard for a scientist to figure this stuff out, let alone a lowly-minded profession like MLB GMs.

Just curious how you choose what to believe. You sometimes use quotes by Sox employees to support your positions. I'm not trying to bust your balls, here. Just wondering how you choose.

Last spring, there is no way any Yankee fan would say the Sox had a better foundation or players you can count on to be average or above average at their positions. Now, I'm not so sure they'd feel the same way, now. Wong/McGuire v Trivino/Higgy Casas v Rizzo/Bauers Urias/Reyes v Torres Story v Volpe Devers vs LeMahieu/Peraza Duran/Refsnyder v Pereira/I F-k Rafaela/Abreu v McKinney Dugo v Judge Yoshida v Stanton The pitching shows the Yanks in a better light, but there are a lot of questions for both teams. Bello, Sale, Pivetta, Houck, Crawford vs Cole, Rodon, Cortes, Schmidt, German, Brito Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Whitlock, Bernardino/Joely vs Homes, Kahnle, King, Peralta, Abreu and otehrs