moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yup, and those signs were there for Soto, too.
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We may have quite a few pre-arb... Bello Houck Crawford Wink Casas Duran Wong Reyes Abreu Rafaela EValdez I count 9-10 for the opening day 26 man roster. Plus, Schreiber on his first arb, McGuire on his second, Urias on his 3rd of 4, and Pivetta and Dugo on the more costly 3 of 3 arbs. (Also, Ref will make only $1.85M) Others on the 40 or bubble (or gone): 4-7 Rule 5 Players Murphy Kelly Walter Mills Mata DHam Dalbec
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I'm wondering why he's on your radar. Either you are starting to think "JH can spend more, if he wants," or you don't want to spend whatever we'd pay Chapman of more and or better pitching. Say we have $50-70M to spend. We need 2-3 excellent pitchers. That alone will cost over $50M.
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How could you not think of it?
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I'm not sure how much weight we can give his 2023 performance. He's 30 years old, and had a .667 career OPS before '23. It was .627 from 2018-2022 with a grand total of 260 PAs in MLB over those 4 years. His sample size in 2023 was just 185 PAs. Cora's reluctance to play him, while Kike was stinking up the joint, shows he did not have much faith in him, at first. His career .803 OPS v LHPs and ability to play decent D at SS might make him a valuable piece to the 2024 Sox. If we use EValdez as the other half of a 2B platoon (.806 v RHP in '23), we may get some very nice offense from that position, but Valdez is horrible on D, and would be playing the long side platoon.
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A lot depends on how they perceive Urias. His final arb year may be more than what they think he's worth. They must have had some hope he'd return to '21-'22 levels to trade for him, but did they get a long enough look to make the call? Getting hurt, again, probably hurt his case for getting an arb case or pre-arb signing, but I would not be surprised to see him back as the FT 2Bman. It's not like 2021 and 2022 was long ago, and the guy is just 26. If they do let him go or trade him, I'm not thrilled by a Reyes-Valdez platoon at 2B, either, but I still view pitching as the major priority, and by a longshot. I don't think DHam is viewed as capable ML depth at MI. He may not even make to 40 man roster in '24. Mayer is not close enough to count as 2024 MI depth. Yorke might be, but that's a gamble. I just don't see us deciding to spend much at 2B or 3B, if any- with or without Urias (who can play 3B, too.)
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You do realize getting Chapman and Baez would mean hardly anything left for pitching, or are you now joining the Henry can spend millions more if he wants club?
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In hindsight, we were lucky to get Bogey to extend, despite the opt out. We did get Devers to extend before his final arb year.
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I'm not thrilled with Urias/Reyes/EValdez at 2B and do worry about Story's health at SS. I'm not thrilled with our corner IF or LF defense, either. I'm worried about CF and the fact that Dugo has just one year remaining. I'm a little worried about our lack of a great LH RP'er, although many of our RH RP'ers do very well or better vs RHBs. I'm worried about the loss of big RH'd bats Turner & Duvall All of these pale in comparison to my concerns about the rotation. If I had to assign a percentage based on my concerns, I might break it down like this: Option A: 40% Solid #2 type SP 40% Solid #2 type SP 16% Solid #4 type SP 3% RHB (CF, RF, if we trade Dugo or 2B) 1% LH RP Option B: 60% Ace 36% Solid #2 SP 3% RHB (CF, RF-trade Dugo or 2B) 1% LH RP (This is not a breakdown of money allocation- just my perception of our needs.)
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I was talking about the $300M offer. I should have said that and not "an offer." My point has been maybe the offered him $295M, or never formally made an offer, but when the floated $300M verbally, and the comeback was $420M, they didn't bother to make an actual offer. Both would make what Betts said the truth, but also mean the Sox were serious about giving him near $300M or actually $300M. This scenario is very plausible, but it does raise the question on why someone from the Sox has never said, "We made a verbal offer of ____, and their request for much more, made us not formally make the offer." How would that hurt their image? This where I tend to agree with you guys that something seems fishy, and with the Sox fishy history, it makes it more believable. I also can't believe the last offer- formal or not- was $200M from the previous year, before his MVP season. That makes no sense, either, but so did the whole Lester mess.
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Didn’t he also say, at one time, “They never made me an offer?”
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The real stab in the back was none of the Betts and Price money was spent for years afterwards. We barely spent the Porcello money in2020. I’m not even sure we did that. When we dumped Crawford by including AGon and Beckett, we spent quite a bit that following winter. The ring in 2013 quieted the fans pretty quickly. No such thing occurred. We are still not at the 2019 budget, despite inflation.
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That’s what make it look like they are the untruthful or holding back incriminating facts. The same thing happened with Lester and to some extent Bogey. I’m not taking their side, but Betts has said some things that sound different from earlier comments.
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Well said. Just because the prospects traded did not perform to expectations, in most cases, and DD kept “all the right prospects” doesn’t mean the farm was good or even decent. The farm infusion basically ended after the Devers call up in 2017, and he was a Ben acquisition… thankfully not traded. As it turned out, several DD prospects have done well, but the long gap between Devers and Houck then a couple more years to Bello and Casas really put the brakes on any ideas of a quick rebuild. Again, I’m not complying. DD did a great job, and just about everything he did was worth the later sacrifices, in my book. I do like a more balanced approach, but that 3 year run at the top of the ALE, including that magical 2018 season may not have happened without going all in.
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Yes, and we tend to assume being quiet means you have no counter, but this may not be true, since teams are usually mum on these things. There are a few scenarios I laid out where nobody would be technically lying.
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Baez is still a decent fileder. He was +9 OAA over the past 2 seasons, but no. I agree: pass. He had one surge in offense, years ago. That was it.
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This article seems to claim the Sox offered $300M/10 and Betts countered with $420M. https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/dave-dombrowski-nearly-traded-mookie-betts-to-the-dodgers-last-season/397746/ Here Betts speaks of "turning down the offer." https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/07/mookie-betts-ex-boston-red-sox-star-doesnt-regret-turning-down-300m-extension-offer-once-i-make-a-decision-i-make-a-decision.html In this article, Henry says they offered Betts a deal 3 times: "We made legitimate offers over three offseasons,” said principal owner John Henry. “We made it clear to Mookie and I made it personally clear, 1-on-1, that we wanted to see him in a Red Sox uniform for the rest of his career if possible." https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-made-three-generous-proposals-to-mookie-betts-before-deciding-to-trade-him-to-dodgers.html
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Get real. I have fully supported DD's trades, over and over. Someone asked who he traded that we'd want on our team. I mistakenly switched Logan Allens. You make it sound like I did it to make DD look bad. My position has been to try to make him look good on just about every trade he ever made for us. Even the ones that weren't great never hurt us or helped the other team way more. If the worst trade we can find is trading away Travis Shaw, who had a couple good seasons, after the trade, I think that speaks volumes on just how great his trades were.
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Top WAR players on the Yanks from 2022-2023 and their ages: (Only returning players with 1.0+ fWAR listed) Red= 30+ 16.9 Judge 31 8.5 Cole 32 6.1 Torres 26 4.6 Trevino 30 4.4 Cortes 28 4.1 LeMahieu 34 3.9 King 28 3.4 Rizzo 33 3.4 Higgy 33 2.6 Holmes 30 2.3 Schmidt 27 1.9 Volpe 22 1.6 I K-F 28 1.5 German 30 1.1 Hamilton 28 Sox 7.9 Devers 26 3.4 Pivetta 30 3.2 Dugo 27 3.0 Crawford 27 2.9 Bello 24 2.6 Story 30 2.3 Sale 34 2.2 Whitlock 27 2.1 Casas 23 1.9 Houck 27 1.9 Schreiber 29 1.7 McGuire 28 1.5 Refsnyder 32 1.5 Martin 37 1.1 Jansen 35
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Last deadline was even worse.
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Will anyone else have no QO?
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Yes, I meant to say "should" not "can." Going by age and injury history, the Yanks seem to have more doubts than the Sox with Sale and our two top RP'ers, who have very little injury history buy are very old. Not many of our returning pitchers have major injury histories. I guess Whitlock and Sale. Others have missed a little here and there.
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Some is about health, for sure, but what else is new for the Yanks. You guys hoard injury-prone players like nobody else. Some are not about "health." Pen 2022>2023 fWAR 1.7>0.9 M King (more IP in '23) 1.5>1.1 Holmes (same IP) Kahnle pitched more IP in '23 than '22 and '21 combined (make that '18 + '20 + '21 +'22 combined) I'm supposed to cry over his loss? SP Cole, German and Schmidt pitched more IP in '23. We tried to convince you Rodon was injury-prone, last winter, but you would have no part of it. You were all over Paxton. I hope you won't expect sympathy for Severino's health, just like I won't for Sale.
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You didn't mention our best returning pen arm: Martin. We also have Schreiber, Kelly and a few others that may shine in '24.
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I'm not a big fan of FIP, and never have been. It is useful, but not as useful as OPS Against, ERA-, WHIP and K/BB factors. I'm fine with calling our pens even, but I still think ours would be better, if Houck, Whitlock and Crawford were in the pen FT. We can't project that for 2024, but we can't project bounce backs from Yankee players, either.
