moonslav59

I seriously doubt we'd give up just Mayer for Soto, even if they paid $10M or so.

I figured you missed it. Actually, I'd be fine with just Burnes and Yamamoto, and we'd stay under the second line. We could take a flyer on someone like Severino or Flaherty, but for the 5 slot, not a top 3 slot in the rotation. (Insurance for Sale, and allows us to keep one more of these guys in the pen: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford or Pivetta.)

I'm not locked into Morton, but I was thinking we just extended devers for 10, I was giving Yamamoto 10 years and expect us to extend Burnes, too. Balancing that with one 1 yr deal seems logical. We could also spend less per year on a longer deal for someone like Wacha or on one from 30-31 year olds ERod, Montgomery, Giolito or Snell.

Burnes and Yamamoto aren't "someone else?" They both might be top 5-7 in available SP'ers this winter.

Ummm, I also added Burnes and Yamamoto. Morton is no Kluber or Richards. His 163+ IP over the last 3 years would have led the Sox in IP in 2023. Last 3 year average: 174 IP 3.77 ERA (114 ERA+) 3.75 FIP 10.4 K/9 Kluber's previous 3 years average 120 IP (not counting 1 IP in short 2020 season) 4.15 ERA (93 ERA+) 3.66 FIP 8.2 K/9 Richards 64 IP (not counting 9 IP in 2020) 4.09 ERA (103 ERA+) 4.29 FIP 9.5 K/9

How is this for a winter plan of action? Trade Dugo, Yorke & Drohan for Corbin Burnes (BTV rates as a minor overpay by the Sox) Est ARBs: Burnes $15M and Dugo $9M, so +$9M to 2024 budget. Sign Duvall to about $30M/3. +$10M to 2024 budget Sign Yamamoto to about $230M/10 (plus posting fee.) +$23M to 2024 budget Sign Morton to about $22M/1 with team option for '25 at $15M with $1M buyout. +$23M to 2024 budget That is adding $65M to the 2024 tax budget, which I believe keeps us under the second tax line, comfortably. SP1 Burnes SP2 Yamamoto SP3 Morton SP4 Bello SP5 Sale/Pivetta (pen) RP8/9 Jansen & Martin RP7/8 Winckowski & Schreiber (Bernardino if Pivetta is starting) RP4-8 Houck, Crawford, Whitlock (Pivetta, if Sale is starting) 1. L/R Duran-Refsnyder LF 2. L Devers 3B 3. R Duvall RF 4. L Casas 1B 5. L Yoshida DH 6. R Story SS 7. L/R Abreu-Rafaela CF 8. R Urias-Reyes 2B 9. L/R McGuire-Wong C Is that enough to win? Is it possible we spend $65M plus the Devers and arb raises?

LMAO!

And, if you are counting the whole division as champs, then are they all cheaters, too?

I agree. Make them all 7 game series and that would add some games.

Now, That's Entertainment!

In 140 more years?

I can see us using Rafaela all over the place, which would allow Abreu to play CF and RF enough to not need to be in AAA. If we trade Dugo and sign Duvall, Duvall should be a FT player, if he stays healthy. Rafaela would have to play a lot of 2B to give Abreu that time.

Not for one year. Did we get anywhere near that for 1 year of Betts?

I doubt he would have been protected, anyway.

It was his bridge gift to Ben.

We could do a lot worse than Duvall in RF. (Abreu as a back-up should work, too.)

In some ways, I think we have a lot of OF depth but no sure bet, solid 3 OF'er's. The one we have, Verdugo is the guy most likely to be traded. To me, I'm fine with... Yoshida at DH and 3rd string LF'er. Duran and Refsnyder should be a fine platoon for LF. Abreu could be depth, if needed. RF should be Dugo or Duvall (if Dugo is traded.) Abreu could be depth, there, too. CF is the open book. It could be Duvall, if we sign him and keep Dugo, or we could go with Rafaela and Abreu, but with all these OF'ers I think one will start the season in AAA as further depth. I'm not sure Rosier is ML ready, but looks to be a LF type OF'er.

Indeed, unless you think he will almost certainly not get hurt, all year.

Agreed, and had we traded Sale, it would have been further evidence we were not serious about "winning now."

I've thought it possible since day one, but there is no evidence to support this opinion.

It's hard to know how good his D in RF is, now. He's surely not at GG level, but watching him in CF, this year makes it hard to relate to his RF skill set. I'm not thinking he would be worse than Verdugo, but maybe not better, either. I would not like to see him in CF, anymore, but as an emergency CF'er, maybe. I see RF and maybe 1B as the two major spots for him. I'd say LF, too, but we already have 3-4 of those. I just wonder if his bat is enough to make up for the loss of JT. Hopefully, Story can make up the difference, and Rafaela offers some hopes there, too. If we only add Duvall to the everyday ML roster, I'd be okay, but we will need improvements at a few positions to make the offense be a significant plus in 2024. It was about average in 2023. Here some possibilities... More time from Story, Duran and Duvall. The emergence of Rafaela, Abreu and EValdez. Improved offense at 2B (Urias/Reyes/Valdez) Improvement from Casas and our catchers. Devers goes ballistic.

I think it's going to happen. We'd save over $10M in arb costs, assuming we don't take back salary with the return player. That gives us some more money to sign a RHB like Duvall, and leaves more to spend on SP'er. Maybe we can get a good LH RP'er for him or add pieces and get someone who can fill one of the 4 major slots I think we need to fill: SP1, SP2, RHB, SP4. Maybe we just trade him for a RHB OF'er of equal value. If we really are intent on leaving Story at SS, and we have Zanetello, Romero and Cespedes further down the road, maybe we will trade Mayer and others for an ace. If we spend a bunch o top of that, we can fill all our major needs.

IMO, trying to spread the wealth to possibly slightly upgrade 7-8 slots is the status quo. You get what you pay for, and $10M/1 does not get what it used to get. I understand, we could upgrade at one or two of C, 2B and CF/RF or try and upgrade our defense by adding a corner IF'er and shuffling others around to DH and 1B, but I'm sick of that strategy. I'd put all my apples into 4 signings: SP1 SP2 RHB (CF or RF- Duvall?) SP4 3 would be okay, if the 2 pitchers signed were aces or near aces. That's a lot of money. I know. We could break the moratorium on top prospect trades and have money left over to spend on just 3 slots, not 4, or add a LH'd RP'er to the bill. We have been moving in the direction of fewer and fewer slot upgrades needed or signed. (I don't count JT replacing JD as spending on a longstanding hole needed to be filled. I count it as trying to just stay even.) The 2020 roster needed about 20-22 slots filled on the 40. and with guys like ERod and Sale missing the whole season (Beni most of it), the 26 man roster change-over was astoundingly high in number. 2019 PA leaders gone in '20 1. Betts 9. Moreland at the '20 deadline 10. Holt 11. Leon 12. Nunez IP Leaders gone: 1. ERod on IL 2. Porcello 3. Sale on IL 4. Price 6. Workman at deadline 9. Velazquez 11. Brewer 12. Cashner That's half the ML roster needing replacement. By 2021, we added 12, but less to the 40 than 2020. Kike Renfroe Marwin traded mid season/Schwarber added mid season Cordero Santana Pivetta Richards Perez Whitlock Ottavino Sawamura Andriese That is nearly half the ML roster. Prior to 2022, we added 7-8 (much less than '21) Story JBJ (Pham & McGuire at the deadline) Wacha Hill Strahm Diekman Paxton The 2023 winter was largely about replacing Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha/Hill and Strahm. We added about the same as '22: about 6 Yoshida Turner Duvall (Reyes/Urias/Bernardino mid season) Kluber Jansen Martin Let's progress to 3-5.

That ain't happening. Too much money- not only in more playoff games, but more teams staying in the race longer into the season. More likely, they will have 8 teams make the playoffs in each league with no byes, or go back to one game play-ins.

Do you really think that was a serios effort? Whether by Bloom's choice or not, the refusal to part with any top prospects is a sign about not being serious about winning, now. It's okay, every now and again, but we went from the deadline in 2018, which was not really major prospects traded away) until now, with no major prospects or young players traded. That is evidence that the "serious about winning now" was a sham statement. The winter spending budget for 2022 and 2023 was a big step up from 2020 and 2021, but it was still woefully short of hat was needed and of 2019 numbers, even without inflation being figured in (opening day roster was $30M less than 2019, which was not a playoff team to begin with.) Also, factor in that many other teams started spending more and passing us in the budget rankings, and yes, it was a sham. The big winter budget before the 2023 season was partially a mirage, as we had to replace Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Vaz and Hill, while still dealing with an unproductive mega contract for Sale. They did mess up on the spending, and even if Yoshida earns or nearly earned his keep, we still focused too much on the wrong areas and don't have much to look forward to with the signings, except one more year from the aged Jansen and Martin. I get the point that we could have been competitive had we spent the money very wisely, so it should not be called a "sham" for that reason. Your position has merit. I still think the upper brass has known all along, we were not building for a championship contending team. It's been all about the long term, while trying to give the fans an impression we can win now. It was a planned illusion. A sham.