moonslav59

Bloomspeak... Boston GM Chaim Bloom reflects on state of Red Sox WWW.MLB.COM This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

I get that, but I do think JH knows Bloom drafted mostly HS players, and so is giving his farm pipeline longer than might be normal. That being said, if Bloom did not add Whitlock and Wink to the "pipeline," he might certainly be out of a job, soon. Bloom's prospects and ETAs according to SPs: 1. Mayer late '24 2. Bleis late '26 4. Yorke late '24 5. Drohan mid '24 6. Anthony '26 7. Romero '26 15. E R-C '26 16. Jordan 2025 18. Hickey 2025 19. Hamilton mid '24 20. Murphy mid '24 (saw action in '23) 21. Alcantara 2027 23. Meidroth 2025 25. Guerrero mid '24 26. Ravelo 2026 28. Kavadas 2025 29. C Coffey 2027 30. Rogers 2026 Added to Pipeline outside of draft or IFA Graduated: Whitlock, Winckowsi, Wong, Ort, Kelly, Bernardino 10. Valdez '23 14. Abreu mid '24 Others: Denlinger, RHern, Gambrell, Ferguson, Rosier, de la Rosa

Yes, you have to go to 200 IP to get him included on the list if top pitchers from 2022-2023, however only 64 pitchers make that 200 IP cut off. That's about 2 per team on average. Some interesting notes that highlights how fangraphs really screws low K/higher weak contact pitchers: bWAR: 4.8 (I'm not sure where than places him in the rankings) fWAR: 3.5 (This is 40th out of 64 who qualified and nearly bottom third tier.) BTW, Kluber is 54 at +2.4 and Pivetta is 6th at +1.4. It's pretty telling to see that you have to go down to 100 IP from 2022 and 2023 combined to reach 150 qualifying SP'ers! WOW! Here are some notably ranked SP'ers: 13. Luis Castillo (traded last deadline and extended) 30. Pablo Lopez (traded last winter) 33. Jordan Montgomery (traded at the last deadline) 41. Jose Quintana 46. Eovaldi 47. Jesus Luazrdo (maybe a trade target?) 50. Michael Wacha- now this sample size places him in the top 3rd tier of 50 each. 2nd tier (middle 50) 58. T Walker 59 C Bassitt 60. K Gibson 63. R Stripling 67. Z Eflin 73. Kluber 74. Taillon 76. R Hill 78. T Mahle 81. J Cueto 83. Syndergaard 84. M Gore 86. F Montas 92. B Bello (just 104 IP) 101. C Irvin Bottom 3rd 110. Pivetta (only Marco Gonzalez and Josiah Gray have more IP and a lower fWAR.) 113. Heaney

No, but I felt that way, all along. I've always felt they were never going to pay what Bogey wanted at any point along the timeline. To me, blaming losing on just the GM's moves misses the context and may not even be accurate to say the totality of his moves sucked. To each his own. I certainly understand how and why the GM is blamed for the team being inlast place after 3.5 years. I feel he shares in the blame, but my expectations for years 1-3 were much lower than most, here..

Depends, if they are looking at trying to win in 2024. Here is a bit of a logjam that can easily be fixed, but seems a bit needless. I assume Turner will take his $13.5M option on 2024 and Casas will be viewed as a FT player (1B/DH) in 2024. If we want to improve OF defense, and keep Dugo, playing Yoshida at DH makes the most sense, but then we logjam 1B. Maybe, we trade Turner. I wonder, if any GM values Kike as a CF'er, assuming he's not still at .650 on August 1st.

Is it that hard of rbatters with significant L-R splits? It might mean a 1-2 game adjustment in most cases.[ A lefty, who struggles vs lefties has plenty of days to choose from. A righty, not so much. Our team has faced 49 RH's SP'ers to 20 LH'd SP'ers. I like to see that Refsnyder started all 20 of those games (and only 5 v RHPs) GREAT! I get that we might not know about minor injuries or other factors that go into deciding on a needed day off, but here are some numbers: Devers did not start in 2 games out of 49 vs a RH'er. He did not start in 3 of 20 v LH'ers. More v LH'ers is good but 3 to 2? BTW, Devers does not have wide splits, career. Verduog does. Why did he start in 19 of 20 games vs LH'ers but only 44 of 49 v RH'ers? If it was not injury-related, it's bad choice. Kike hits LH'er much better: He started 19 of 20 v LH'ers- Good, but maybe could have been 20 and one less vs RH'ers. He started 41 of 49 v RH'ers (Maybe 40 would have been better, some might say 0.) He did it with Dalbec, last year- a huge L-R split guy. He played Ref vs RHPs, a lot, last year. [/b]

It must. Fielding Errors by year 42 '18 52 '19 26 '20 (short season projects to about 65) 58 '21 37 '22 20 '23 (Pro-rates to about 41) Throwing Errors 35 33 19 (short season projects to about 59) 49 48 29 (projects to about 60 for 2023) Throwing Error Leaders: 24 Kike Projected from 12 in 2023) 12 Devers '18 10 Devers '21 9 Devers '20 8 Devers '19 6 Bogey '18 & '21 and Renfroe in '21 FE is way different: Kike has just 2, which projects to 4 over a full season) 14 Devers '19 12 Devers '18 12 Devers '21 9 Dalbec '21 8 Bogey '19 6 Bogey '22 6 Renfroe '21 Kike has 12 of our 29 throwing errors but just 2 of our 20 FEs. 14 of 49 total or 29%!!!! Note: he's had about 310 out of 2420 Total Chances, too. (13%)

I'm not concerned about how it is set up or trying to guess at how it they are determined: I'm concerned that it seems immovable by even 1 game.

I get it, but are you saying there is zero chance the team takes the $24M/2 or $55M/4 options?

That is a separate issue and worthy of a separate debate. The other issue was clearly related to your issue in 2020 and to a lesser extent before 2021, and IMO all the way to March 2022, when Bloom signed Story. I can't really say Bloom botched the spending prior to Story. He was given a negative budget in 2020, and didn't come close to replacing the salaries of Betts, Half-Price and Porcello by 2021, and also had to deal with no Sale and his contract plus no ERod in 2020. To me, the judgment begins with Story and runs to now, but I'll start with the winter before 2022 until now, and here it is: The only Big Contracts (3): $314M/10 Devers: begins in 2024 and is hard to judge, right now. $140M/6 Story: looks like a total failure but made some sense, at the time, but could be TBD. $90M/5 Yoshida: looks good, so far, but it is very early. The Moderate deals (4): $32M/2 Jansen: looks good, to me. $24M/3 Kike (I added 2 deals): looks bad, now, despite a solid second half to '21 and an awesome post season. $21.7/2 Turner (assuming he takes the option): looks good, to me. $17.5M/2 Martin: looks good, to me. ($18.8M/2 Barnes extension sucked) (JBJ trade that added significant money to the budget sucked) Shorterm $7-10M/1 or $14-20M/2 Deals $10M/1 Richards: YUCK! $10M Kluber: YUCK! $7M Duval: TBD $7M Wacha: looked good, to me $10M/2 Paxton: TBD $2.5-$5M/1 or $5-$14M/2 Deals $5M/1 Hill: Looked good, to me $8M/2 Diekman: Bad, but getting McGuire and shedding $5.5M helped. $3M/1 Strahm: very good I gave my comments, but I'm not trying to make excuses or apologies, here. I ask you to think about what expectations should be on the money spent on mostly moderate to low budget deals, and then opine on just how bad, okay or good Bloom did, in retrospect or maybe how these deals looked at the time of their signings. Personally, I don't think he has been as horrible as many make him out to be, and feel our poor records have been related to other issues more than how many mistakes he's made on stab-in-the dark signings (not counting the Story deal, which was a major choice made.) Looking at the list above, what is your grade? Looking at that grade, how does those signings compare to the issue of Sale & his contract giving us next to nothing plus almost every big-named vet from 2018-2019 giving far less production from 2020-2023 or not even playing for much of that time? How much does the farm giving us only Houck from mid 2017 to mid 2022 compare in effect on the team record and our budget? Of the top of my head, I might say ... 40% lower production and injuries to our carry over stars 40% virtually no farm input for 5 years (3.5 in Bloom's era) 20% Blooms signings (I did not mention Bloom's additions of Wink, Schreiber, Refsnyder and others at less than $3M/yr and his farm building or his budget improvements.) This is his record just as much as the losing W-L record since 2021.

Bonehead choice- maybe 2-3 times, this year, out of thousands made. Not a bonehead manager. I'd feel better, if Cora determined he wants to give ____ a day off, next week and then choose the pitcher who is toughest for ____ to hit. I think I remember, in at least one case, the day after the day off saw a correct-handed pitcher going for the opps.

True, but he might end up costing $55M/4 not $10M/1, so that is major.

But he has a horrible stretch, last August and likely in other years, too, as well as red hot streaks every season.

I wasn't talking about this last Devers rest day, although it was before a day off. He sat 2 players before a day off and vs a wrong-handed pitcher, at least twice, this year. Don't ask me to prove it, please.

Yes, last in FLG% and just .006 from 15th, .007 from 10th, .009 from 5th and .010 from best. Here is a more advanced metric look, which (except for UZR/150) also shows we have gotten worse but are not "the worst": Fangraphs DRS (a cumulative number, but ranking is not) 18th in '21 (+4) 23rd in '22 (-4) 25th in '23 (-19) UZR/150 11th in '21 (+1.4) 23rd in '22 (-2.5) 6th in '23 (+3.7- don't ask me how.) D Measure (a cumulative number) 23rd in '21 (-20.6) 26th in '22 (-21.5 27th in '23 (-10.5)

I'd bet Cora is the only manager that routinely gives players a day off on both criteria: Before or after a team day off AND vs the wrong-handed SP'er. It is really a bonehead choice to make. I think I remember it happening twice, this year with respectable batters, but it probably happened more.

Does the evidence show Devers is swinging at more bad pitches, this year? Out of Zone swings: 38.7 Career 40.3 in 2022 37.6 in 2023 In Zone swings 76.4 Career 77.3 in 2022 80.8 in 2023 Overall swing rate: 53.7 Career 54.5 in 2022 54.2 in 2023 He is swinging more than his career numbers, but as a result of swinging at more way more pitches in the zone and less out of the zone. He's making more contact, too> 67.1% Career out of zone[> 67.2 in 2023 80.9% Career in zone? 81.9 in 2023 (I'm no expert on these types of numbers, so please correct me, if I am wrong- somebody.)

There is more than one scenario, where he ends up a pretty cheap deal: 1. The team does not take the option, and Wacha says no to $16M x 3 remaining, and this could happen if Wacha starts 28+ games with an ERA under 2.99. Cost $7.5M/1 ($4M + $3.5M signing bonus) 2. The team refuses the option, and Wacha says yes to the player option, and this could happen, if he sucks or gets hurt going forward. Cost: $6.5M x 4 years Only the 3rd option looks expensive (Wacha takes the player option), but if he is doing as well as 2022-2023, it's still not a gross overpay, and could end up a bargain to SD. Cost:about $14M x 4

Whether it was luck or whatever, some catchers consistently got a 1 or more run better ERA from certain SP'ers nearly year after year, than the back-up. (Usually Leon v Vaz or Plawecki v Vaz, but earlier with VTek vs whoever, too.) 1 run every 5 games is a huge factor. One had to expect a learning curve with not just 2 younger and or new catchers to the ML team, but a near total staff changeover from 2022, as well. Maybe the improvement of late, is showing the learning curve is over. IP Leaders in 2022 180 Pivetta (demoted to pen) 127 Wacha GONE 124 Hill GONE 109 Nate GONE 78 Whitlock 77 Crawford 70 Wink 65 Schreiber 62 Brasier GONE 60 Houck 57 Bello 54 Davis GONE 51 Sawamura GONE 45 Strahm GONE 40 Danish GONE 40 Barnes GONE 38 Diekman GONE 28 Ort (demoted to AAA) 14 Kelly + 6 Sale (on IL) 100+ combined IP GONE from Robles, Seabold, Bazardo, Valdez, Familia, DHern, German & Feliz Catchers: McGuire 27 games started w BOS prior to 2023. C Wong 20 games started as a C w BOS prior to '23.

We are not "small market." Currently, we are high end "mid market (middle third,) and we have gone up and down in the past, winning rings after "going cheap" for a year or two. It's not making excuses or "apologizing" for anything. it's realizing the way it is and knowing no matter how hard we can reason that Henry can and or should spend more, if he doesn't, it is what it is. The fact is, JH has started spending more since March 2022 with the Story signing. The Devers extensión, alone, nullifies any talk of small market, but it kicks in, next year. It's not an apology. I think we all wish JH would spend more, but his history shows he will not go 3 years in a row over the line and still has 4 rings to his name. I'm not ready to call for another owner. I guess, if that's apologizing, to some, I'm guilty as charged, but I don't see it that way. I think, when JH hired Ben, his idea was to get back to the early Theo plan of establishing and maintaining a strong farm, while spending big, when needed, here and there. Yes, we were the top spenders for a few years, here and there, too, but not to the point where we were taxed at the 3rd year rates or incurred stiff penalties on drafts and IFA bonus pool money for over-spending. (The lower draft picks for losing Nate and Bogey could hurt, some.) The plan DD implemented worked very well, but it was polar opposite to what the early Theo, Ben and now Bloom plans and strategies. It is no coincidence that we only had one semi-meaningful prospect graduate between Devers in 2017 and Bello in late 2022. That's 5 years of basically nothing, as compared to so many homegrown studs we saw from Theo and all the talent we acquired by trading away much of Theo and Ben's farm by DD. We've seen an uptick in farm infusion, some looking real good. We've seen additions like Whitlock, Wink and Schreiber, all with 2+ more years of team control start to change the idea that we cannot improve on increasing our young pitcher production. That area still has a long way to go, but we have moved in the right direction: something the later years Theo, Ben and DD did not do. Again, this is not apologizing, but just pointing out some good aspects of Bloom's reign both now and looking forward, on the pitching front. The W-L results have sucked since the end of 2021- no doubt. With this budget, we should be winning more. That is on Bloom and the players who have not been meeting expectations based on their previous production and age curve projections. Maybe Cora is to blame for some of this under-performing. Nobody is pretending JH does not have money. We just can't force him to spend, and using his reluctance to spend or overspend as the reason for us losing, seems like apologizing for underperforming players, to me. If these pitchers pitched like they could since the start of April, and our hitters hit like they could (and did in April,) we'd be in a playoff slot, right now with a budget re-set in place and 2024 looking brighter. I still think JH will spend big, again. I've given up on projecting when that will be.

Indeed, but there does seem to be a consistent flaw in fWAR that penalizes pitch to contact pitchers who consistently get weaker contact than some higher K pitchers. As long as we know that, we can "paint" our own picture, but in some ways, I think WAR was designed to minimize the needs for having to add other "data points." It tries to take that away, as much as possible. Nobody uses it as the be-all-end-all, but how hard could it be to make adjustments for these type of pitchers, rare as they are?

I'm not arguing "bad luck" or anything, and one could point to Wacha's previous numbers before 2022, but this has got to be driving Bloom nutty: Martin Perez 4.65 BOS 3.36 TEX ('22-'23) Jeffrey Springs 7.08 BOS 2.53 TBR Nathan Eovaldi 4.05 BOS (20/33 GS last year) 2.49 TEX (13/13 GS this year, so far) Connor Seabold 10.55 BOS (6 GS/21 IP) 4.70 COL (8GS/54 IP) Michael Wacha 3.32 BOS 2.89 SDP (so far) A little different tangent: 2019 3.81 ERod 34 GS (0 GS in 2020) 4.28 Price 22 GS (0 GS in 2020 for BOS & LAD) 4.40 Sale 25 GS (0 GS in 2020 and not much afterwards) 5.52 Porcello 32 GS (0 GS for anyone, afterwards) That's zero GS'd from 113 GS'd from just these 4 guys! There might be just as long a list of pitchers who did better with us, but I doubt by this much, under Bloom's range. One could argue, Bloom saw the talent but missed on the timing. (He also really wanted Eflin (3.28 in 12 GS) and I think Heaney (4.05 in 13 GS) this past winter- just not enough to get them to sign with us.)

What is it, if both say no?

Two years in a row. I'm not so sure FIP works equally with all pitchers. Low K pitchers who get weak contact more often are penalized.

I said "some sense," and I think the idea was, he may play SS for 5 of the 6 years. Even that money for an .800 2Bman with near GG defense is worth it. I'm just saying your "no sense" point seems too much.