moonslav59

Maybe Turner jumped the gun on the second half of season hot hitter tradition!

If we don't get a traditional ace, we'd need two guys like this year's Wacha and Nate (with no expectation they will continue being this good for more than one season.) Again, what are the odds any GM can go 2 for 2 on signings like theirs? It's easy to say, just do this, but the odds are so long, it's frightening.

Brannon homered, today (1-4.) Alcantara went 3-5 Joh Garcia 3-4 w 3B

You are right, but what are the odds of finding the next Wacha and Nate? Look at all the pitchers signed within the range of those two contract and what do you think the success rate is? We are 1 for 3 in contracts between $7-17M (Richards, Kluber and Wacha, and Wacha started just 22 games.) IMO

Trading Kike and Turner sould only save Turner's salary, next year. I'm only for trading Turner, if we are out of it and aren't planning on spending a lot, next winter.

As long as Duvall stays healthy, and Yoshida and Dugo keep playing well, a Duran-Refsnyder platoon offers a pretty good option vs using Kike as the 4th OFer. Kike at 2B would not be needed, if we traded him and cash for a prospect, as we could call up Valdez and use an Arroyo/Valdez platoon at 2B, when Story returns or with Reyes at SS until he returns, which is apparently going to be August as a SS. Another option would be to trade Turner, use Yoshida at DH and let Kike/Duran platoon in CF with Duvall in LF. (A Duvall/Refsnyder platoon does not work.) We could trade Kike and Turner and go with this: CF: Duran/Duvall platoon LF: Duvall v L and Refsnyder v R DH: Yoshida (call up Dalbec to replace Turner?) 1B: Casas 2B: Arroyo/Valdez platoon (Valdez takes Kike's slot on the roster) SS: Story or Reyes Personally, I think losing Turner and his second half traditional hot streak would greatly affect our chances in 2023, so I would not trade him, if we are still in it, but I don't think the alignment I just provides is all that much worse than now. Trading Dugo, Kike and Turner would be giving up on 2023 and losing Dugo & Turner for just 2024, as well. It would leave this: RF: Refsnyder (Abreu?) CF: Duran/Refsnyder LF: Duvall/Yoshida DH: Yoshida (Dalbec) 1B: Casas (Dalbec) 2B: Arroyo/Valdez SS: Story/Reyes

Would we get a 28th man for the roster for game 3? LOL

One interesting about that 1968 season is this... 1.12 ERA by Gibson was a 258 ERA+ Pedro: 1.74 ERA in 2000 was a 291 ERA+ (He led the league 5 times in ERA+ and had 7 straight seasons over 163 (6 of 7 over 188 and 5 of 7 over 202) Different eras. Gibson led in ERA+ twice in his career and was only over a 164 ERA+ that one season. Pedro did it 7 straight seasons!

That 171 OPS+ was the 3rd best in his career. 193 1967 177 1970 171 1968 156 1965 (All led the league) The next were 148 in '63 and 139 and 140 in '73 and '74. Some perspective: Top Ortiz OPS+ (Never led league in OPS+) 173 in 2012 171 in '07 Manny (never led league in OPS+ w BOS) 186 w CLE in '00 184 w BOS '02 174 w CLE '99 (only year he led the league in this category) 166 in '08 w 2 teams (He had 12 seasons over 150 and 16 over 144!

Liking may improve respecting and trusting a little more, but I've always resisted thinking all this makes much of a difference. I have some differences in opinions on some strategies Cora uses, but I know he knows way more than I do about strategy and the ins and outs of certain calls and decisions he makes. The amount of differences I have are such a small percent of all the choices he makes, that it does not come close to flipping me to disliking Cora as our manager. I understand the concept of firing a manager to create change, but change just for the sake of shaking things up is not something I like. It does seem to work, sometimes, even when a good manager is let go.

I think Duvall will be in LF some games, which improves the D. If he is in CF vs LHPs, instead of Refsynder, it is an improvement, too. If he is in CF, instead of Kike, and I can't believe I'm saying Duran, too, it is worse.

2020 should always be viewed as a write off, and for several reasons. 1. Short season. 2. Massive budget cuts that included the Betts/Price salary-savings trade. 3. No Sale and Erod due to injuries. 4. In terms of farm building, the shorter draft and loss of a full season of player development has to factor into the evaluation. If you start the clock from 2021, it looks like we have gone backwards on MLB win-losses. In terms of improving the budget, advances were clearly made. In terms of improving the farm and team-controlled roster depth, advances seem to be made, but mush is speculative and unproven. (Most of Bloom's farm additions are still 1-4 years from the bigs and 2-6 years from being mature enough to expect major contributions, so that part of the grading may end up happening after he is cone.)

I don't like the ghost runner, either. The W-L issues has been discussed to death. I'm fine with letting it rest.

Maybe Bloom with solve the issue by just trading Kike and cash at the deadline.

Just don't say improving metrics improves the W-L record.

So are some of the rules that determine who gets the win and who gets the loss- not just this ghost runner one. A pitcher goes 4.2 shut out innings, but the next guy lets up 5 runs but leads with the lead. The 5 run guy gets the win. Is one rule more stupid than the other?

Yes, that's why I said "don't carry as much weight," and not that the numbers I gave are unimportant.

Take away 2021, which many viewed as an aberration, anyway, and I can see steady growth, but minimal growth, of late. .400 to .493. In 3 more years, we should be at .586! LOL!

Yes, right now. I agree. I will say, I am getting closer to the point many seemingly have already reached, and some were at before the season even started, but I still have significant hopes we right the ship. My main area of optimism is that our weakest area- the rotation- looks to be greatly improving, and our second worst area- defense- should improve, now that Kike is no longer the SS, and the returning Duvall and eventually Story should help as well. Of course, the bats could stay dormant, but to me that is not expected. It is depressing, right now, so it is what it is.

His answer would likely be more about 2024 and beyond, but I really believe he thought and might still think he built a 2023 team that should make the playoffs. If the rotation keeps going like this, we just might,

Good point, and this shows why some of the stats I used that show he is swinging at out of zone pitches less than his norm may not carry much weight. Thanks for the deeper dive.

One more small tidbit of information highlighting the flaws of using the W-L records to judge pitchers.

If the team can't get above .500 why keep a SP'er who is a FA, after this year? Is .490 over .475 better than a decent prospect?

Woo was 2 hit with Scott hitting a 2 run HR in the loss. Por lost game 1, but Rafaela went 2-4. Mayer doubled while going 1-4 Meidroth 0-1 w 2BB Hickey 1-3 Kavadas 0-3 w 3Ks POR lost game 3-2 in game 2. Kavadas and Mayer both homers for 2 of the team's 3 hits. (Kavadas K'd twice/ Yorke 3 times.) Joirdan homered and doubled in GRE's loss. Anthony had 2 hits. FCL lost 12-11 (They scored 10 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th.) The team walked 9 times. Brannon 2-5 w BB & 3B Yuten 2-6 w 2B Alcantara 1-4 w 2BB Avila 1-1 w 2BB DSL Red lost 6-2 Arias 3-5 (1.023 OPS) The 10-0 DSL Blue was already mentioned

Games left before trade deadline: 3 NYY 4 @MN 3 @CWS day off 3 MIA 3 @TOR day off 3 TEX 3 OAK All Star Break- 4 days 3 @CHC 3 @OAK day off 3 NYM day off 2 ATL day off (7th day off in 18 days) 3 @SFG 3 @SEA (deadline before game 2)