moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I will not only repeat it, I'll double down. Bogey is not a good defensive SS. Nowhere will you ever find me saying I did not want him to return, or that he was a net negative value. I liked the Story signing, and before I knew of his injury, assumed he'd play SS and Bogey 2B. If they were both on the Sox, now, I'd have the exact same position. I'm not sure where this tirade is coming from.
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I can't disagree with anything, except the shift rule change. Do we now need to put an asterisk next to Ted Williams, as he was hurt by the shift and newer guys cannot be?
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No problem for JH, unless and until, the product on the field leads to major losses in profits.
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His few long term deals, so far, don't look great. I'm not sure upper brass would have allowed more, so I'm not sure we can blame Bloom for so many 1 and 2 year deals, as we rebuilt. I'm hoping we see 3-4 major signings, this winter, Anything less, to me, would be punting to 2025, and would not go over well.
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No doubt. Big "if" though, as we do not know Bogey would have accepted $160M/6 of even $200M/6, at any point in his time with the Sox. I agree, though, if it was possible, it would have been better, so far.
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Okay, I misread your position. I do see value in holding off on major SP'er signings until the instant we feel a window is open, and not beforehand.
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I hear you. Winter major moves: Kluber- stinker Yoshida- not so good, so far Jansen- Bingo Martin- Major bingo! Turner- Bingo Duvall- pretty good, despite the injury Minor moves: Good: Reyes, Beranrdino Meh: Chang, Tapia Bad: Mondesi and the revolving door of about 10 guys at the 7-8 RP'er slots. The winter before 2022: Story- stinker for 2022 and 2023 JBJ- stinker Wacha- good RHill- good Strahm- good Schreiber- good Diekman- bad (see McGuire) Minor moves: Good: Refsnyder, McGuire, Abreu + EValdez Meh: Pham Bad: Robles, Davis
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9/9 Orioles at Red Sox
moonslav59 replied to vegasbob's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I don't disagree, and maybe the fans would prefer to see Rafaela and not Dugo or Yoshida. My point was about fans wanting to see a win more than anything else, which certainly has some merit, too. BTW, we did start Abreu and EValdez. Today, we are starting Rafaela and Abreu. Knowing Cora, it must have been hard to pencil in Abreu after getting on base 6 times, yesterday. He was due for a rest day. LOL -
My point was they were not interested in Scherzer, because they went for building up the foundation BEFORE going for an expensive pitcher. Many were surprised we topped everyone for Price, the next year. They may be surprised we outbid everyone for a top SP'er, this coming winter... or not.
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Exponentially, YES!
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Wrong, in hindsight. Most of the SP'ers traded for at the deadline have not done what we would have needed to put us in the race, let alone into a WC driver's seat. Yes, at the time, I do think we should have been buyers. Adding Civale would have been a good move for this year and next.
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I thought we should have had a fire sale, last deadline. I agree: big mistake. I thought we should have been buyers, this deadline. I doubt it would have helped. I think I was wrong, this year and right, last year- in hindsight.
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100% I was begging we add 2 SP'er.
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I wasn't hinting that terrible hitting SSs can be of great value, overall, due to spectacular defense, but one can be a significant plus on fWAR while being a minus on offense. 2018-2023 fWAR Short Stops (6 year sample size) 13.3 fWAR Brandon Crawford (-13.7 Offense and +58.4 defense) 10.5 Nick Ahmed (-48.9 O & +83.9 D) 9.0 Elvis Andrus (-42.8 0 & +40.4 D) Some SSs who have very high fWARs based more on D than O, but are still okay to good on O: 31.8 Lindor (highest fWAR as a SS in MLB) +88.1 O and +104.3 D 19.4 Swanson (7th best fWAR) +20.0 O and +67.1 D (The guy I wanted us to sign) 10.0 Baez (8th in fWAR) +13.0 O and +74.1 D BTW, Story has been.... +18.2 +59.0 on O (6th best O number out of top 9) +35.4 on D (5th best D number out of top 9) Bogey +25.7 (3rd best) +128.1 on O (second best O number out of all SSs- T Turner at 135.0) +15.0 on D (The worst D number out of the top 9 fWAR SSs.)
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Counting inflation and the posting fee, the Yoshi AAV is about like JD's- maybe less but with less production, too.
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The difference between $40M/3 and $50M/4 deals vs $7M/1 & $10M/1 deals is likely a better gamble than $50M/4 vs $200M/8 to $250M/8 deals.
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Indeed, and watching Mayer go on to greatness as the SP'er get implodes would be a double whammy hurt.
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My theory is that the team's plan has been to wait on adding big SP'er contracts until the very end of the rebuild process, as they tend to decline quickly after signing. One example was signing Pablito and HRam before Price, instead of Scherzer, first then _____.
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If Teel's bat is great, he can DH on "rest days." Yes, Wong would make for a fin e back-up, and we'd trade McGuire.
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The thing about getting Gray is that the length of the deal would likely be shorter than others, due to his age. I'm not optimistic we outbid everyone for 2 top 7 or 8 pitchers, but I think we need to do just that, or trade for one while signing a top 4 SP'er.
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It still happens. Luis Castillo was one example.
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9/9 Orioles at Red Sox
moonslav59 replied to vegasbob's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
The word "pretending" seemed out of place. We are trying to win every game, and I think Cora is putting the team he thinks gives us the best chance to do that. I can see the value in playing Rafaela everyday, in terms of getting a better read on what we can expect in 2024, but I don't think a few more PAs changes that read much. We often hear about the fans wanting to see our best players out on the field, as in the Cora resting our best players, too often. Now, it seems like we are wanting Cora to not play who he thinks gives us the best chance to win. BTW, all that rest has really helped us, late in the season, right? -
Taking small sample sizes and projecting to 650 PAs often raises eyebrows, but here are some fWAR guesstimates on 2023 Sox numbers at 650 PAs: 5.8 Abreu 4.3 Duran 4.2 Duvall 3.7 Rafaela 3.0 Devers 2.9 Verdugo 2.5 Reyes 2.1 Turner 2.0 Casas 2.0 Wong 2.0 McGuire 0.9 Yoshida 0.6 Refsnyder 0.0 Story & Urias
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SS defense is worth way more than CF defense.
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Current Sox OBP Leaders (375+ PAs) .364 Casas .354 Turner .345 Yoshida .343 Devers .338 Dugo Gone are the days of .375 to .410 OBP guys on the Sox. Under 375 PAs .471 Rafaela (17 PAs) and Abreu (38 PAs) .365 Refsnyder (224) .346 Duran (362) .340 Reyes (155) .338 Urias (75) .321 Duvall (302) .317 McGuire (172) .309 Wong (360)
