moonslav59

6 of their top 7 hitters by PAs are over .810. 7 of their top 10 are over .813. Which of these guys are suspect? .931 Luke Raley .916 Yandy Diaz .889 Arozarena .854 Harold Ramirez .844 Josh Lowe .836 Isaac Paredes .813 Franco Okay, maybe, just maybe Harold Ramirez, but I'm surprised Brandon Lowe is not over .810.

True, but we have a better chance passing BAL than TBR and maybe even a second place HOU or TEX.

I'm kinda hoping BAL loses. We have a better chance passing them.

Laser shot!

Like most younger players, he wasn't getting any help from the umps, and I think that messed with his head, early on. He seems to be on track, now, but future adjustments will likely be needed, as well. I have no problem with his hitting skills and outlook. The D kinda smacked me upside the head, but he should improve there, too. I'm with Nick: it sure is fun watching these kids get a shot and play well. Bello Casas Crawink turned it around. EValdez & Duran and even Murphy. Several of our "near ML ready" prospects, like Mata, Walter and Rafaela have struggled out of the gate, but others on the farm have taken some big strides forward, and Rafaela is heating back up. Many of our top prospects are not expected to help, this year and some beyond 2024, but it's pretty well spread out on ETAs: SP's estimates: 2023: EValdez, Mata and Murphy (listed as 2024) 2024: 1. Mayer, 3. Rafaela, 5. Drohan, 13. Walter, 14. Abreu 2025: 4. Yorke (listed late '24), 11. Paulino, 12. Wikelman, 16-17-18 Jordan, Bonaci & Hickey 2026: 2. Bleis, 6. Anthony, 7. Romero, 8. Perales, 15. E R-C

Ober is pretty tough. His ERA and WHIP has improve from year 1 to his 3rd year. Time to turn things around for the poor guy! I'm hoping Kike can earn the 2B slot and keep Arroyo on the bench, where he may not get hurt.

Looks very promising, despite just a 15 IP sample size.

That's because our pitching is awesome, now! No Sale? What the hail! No Houck?- Whatchootalkinbouk? No Schreiber? Ummm,,, Who cares! We got Paxton & Bello. We got Whit & Crawford. We got... ummm... who cares!

If you HAD to... I might decide to keep one from Duran or Rafaela (25-30), Yorke + Anthony (30) plus Bonaci + Walter (10) and hope 65-70 gets us an ace. Like I said, I'm torn. I love the idea of building up the farm, and letting it mature, then, when you have a logjam, you make a trade. We are not there, yet.

18 year old, Jh. Garcia, homered twice.

Chaim sometimes posts under the name OldRed.

If you had to trade prospects for an ace or a pitcher who might become an ace, which ones to you trade? BTV Values: you likely need to come up with 80-100+ to get an ace: 65 Mayer 34 Bello 30 Duran 30 Bleis 28 Casas 25 Rafaela 24 Houck 23 Whitlock 22 Verdugo & Yoshida 19 Yorke 11 Anthony 9 Romero 8 Wink 7 Wong & Alcantara 5 Bonaci, Meidroth, Paulino, Paxton & Walter 4 Bastardo, Jordan, Hickey, Drohan, Mata, Valdez 3 Refsnyder, Blayock, E R-C, Murphy, Abreu You can't trade 10 guys from the 3-5 group to get to a $40M value, either.

My bad. I clicked on Tony Fossas. LOL

Yes, and some went on to pretty good careers: Tony Armas Jr. & Carl Pavano (Pedro) Fossas (career 111 ERA+) & Jorge de la Rosa (career 100 ERA+) (Schilling) Anibal Sanchez (Beckett) Kopech (Sale) Who do we give up for the next one? Hopefully not Bello. Drohan and Mata? Drohan, Rafaela, E R-C and Romero?

I'm pretty confident in the Casas progression. I think he will keep growing and getting better on D, with power and even more on the OBP.

I think Wong and McGuire needed a learning curve to get to know our staff, and they shortened the curve to about 6 weeks. I think even veteran catchers need a couple weeks or more to get to a comfort zone with a new staff. I projected our catching would be as good or better than 2022's and most disagreed. They both will be fine on D and with the staff, IMO. They were not so great in April, but maybe that was 90% on the pitchers. I like McGuire and Wong pretty evenly, but it is early to judge.

In many ways it is nice to see we are having a problem finding room for so many good players to get a chance to play, and it does show Bloom doesn't get every signing or trade wrong, but we really needed pitching, IMO. (That is now looking like maybe he got that right, too, despite the horrific Kluber signing.) If you go straight by the numbers, which even a stat geek like me would never suggest, here are the splits of the players involved in the logjam, and this is before Story returns. Devers plays everyday at 3B. Reyes plays everyday at SS, until Story returns. Arroyo and Kike share 2B with maybe Valdez added to the mix, if we trade Kike or Arroyo. Catcher is not platooned, except for maybe a few game choices, here and there. 5 Positions to fill: DH, 1B, LF, CF, RF (RED= Must play everyday v this split) 2023/Career Vs RHP 1.088/.757 Duvall- small sample size- could sit a game here and there .900/.823 Verdugo- a lock v R .872/.746 Duran- should start vs every RHP, unless he slumps .861/.861 Yoshida- has to start v all RHPs .730/.752 Casas- room for some days off but not a platoon .728/.832 Turner- room to have a few days off v R .657/.670 Kike- out of the conversation in CF v R .520/.623 Ref- sorry, no starts v R Yoshida, Dugo and Duran should start everyday v R, so that leaves two slots open: to me, Turner should play everyday, but I can't sit Casas v R, either, so Duvall looks like the odd man out. Maybe all 3 share time off v R. Sitting one, every 3 games v R is not really fair to either one. Maybe a trade breaks the logjam, but who? Duran? Duvall? Casas? Dugo? Vs LHPs 1.000/775 Duvall- small sample but needs to start v every L .987/.771 Ref- lock to start v every L .978/.826 Turner- lock to start? .809/.809 Yoshida- really needs to play FT .720/.680 Casas- probably should sit v all LHPs and some RHPs .718/.685 Dugo- hard to sit him any day, but maybe he could "rest" more v L .659/.813 Kike- does not have to improve his O to squeeze Duran out, but Duvall wins. .618/.503 Duran- should be platooned The top 4 seem like locks: Duvall, Ref, Turner and Yoshida, so one slot is open. I'm pretty sure Cora is locked into keeping Dugo FT, and I can't see starting Casas over Dugo, but if Kike heats up, he might squeeze into some time in the OF v L. (See Kike at 2B, below) FYI: Catcher: Massive reverse splits, this year v R .841 Wong (116 PA) .605 McGuire (100) v L 1.122 McGuire (14 PA) .558 Wong (55 PA) 2B v R .739 Valdez .657 Kike .623 Arroyo v L .659 Kike .623 Arroyo (.986 Reyes/.830 Chang)

Or Duran.

Yes, I know that. My thought is something like Dalbec & Pivetta for a slightly better SP'er. Dalbec and one of Lugo/Bonaci/Hamilton/Koss for a prospect who is included with several others in another deal for Bieber or the like.

The bigger problem is who sits, Turner or Casas? I want both playing, everyday. Maybe give Casas a few extra days "of rest" vs lefties, so righties Turner, Ref and Duvall have a place to play, without sitting lefties Yoshida or Dugo. I could see Duran and Casas alternating days off when we face a lefty. v L CF Duvall or Duran LF Yoshida or Duvall DH Turner of Yoshida 1B Casas or Turner Turner or Duvall have to sit v RHPs, if Duran plays against every RH's SP'er (This is a nice problem to have but is not ideal- both should be playing FT.) v R CF Duran LF Yoshida or Duvall DH Turner or Yoshida 1B Casas

Depends what the second or third pieces are, but yes, Dalbec alone won't bring back much.

As long as Turner and Casas stay healthy, Dalbec gets no PAs on the big club for 2 years, so yes. The benefit we get is an open 40 man slot. Another team might start him on the big club, the day after they get him, or at least platoon him.

Why do you get the impression I dislike Wong? Was it because I defended McGuire over unbalanced tiny CERA sample sizes? I like both our catchers and projected they'd be as good or better than the Vaz/Plawecki of 2022. They are clearly better than the 2023 Vaz/Plawecki, so far. I thought Casas was supposed to bring us some decent D at 1B, something we sorely lacked, last year. Maybe he will improve over the second half. His offense is light years better than what we had at 1B, last year. I think his power will show up more, going forward.

No buy out, either.

Good points. The Turner deal could be $15M/1 or $21.7M/2.