moonslav59

Signing Nate, instead of Kluber and Duvall might have still kept us under the tax line, and we'd likely be in a playoff slot, right now, but we'd also be missing Nate for the rest of the season- an all to familiar thing with our best starters (Sale, Nate and Paxton.) We'd also not have Duvall, right now as Duran is slumping, again.

I wasn't counting Kike, as he was not a FA or winter signing, but I suppose you can count Brasier and Kike. More likely, if we did sign Bogey, we don't Martin, and Yoshida. Or Jansen & Turner Or Turner, Martin & Duvall I know including Kluber makes signing Bogey better, but we were always going to sign a SP'er. At one point, Eflin looked like the better choice, but he's out for the year.

Despite Porcello and Price not even being on the 2020 team, they started more games than Nate from 2018-2020 65 Porcello 57 ERod (despite missing 2020's COVID season) 52 Price 52 Sale 42 Nate Despite not being on the Sox for most of 2020, Nate has started more games than Nate from 2020-2022" 65 Pivetta 61 Nate 34 Perez (not on '22 team)

Or, if IP and GS makes you a workhorse.

Not really true. Pivetta has been more dependable than Nate, and he was demoted this year, not injured. 30 GS in 2021 and 33 in 2022 (led league in GS) Richards was demoted not injured. Wacha started 23 games in 2022, which is about the same percent of games missed due to injury as Nate's 4 year numbers. Perez was very dependable. (He was demoted from the rotation n 2021- not injured.) Hill got hurt, but still started 26 or 32 games- a way better rate than Nate's. Kluber got demoted and then hurt. GS leaders by season: 2019 34 ERod 32 Porcello (talk about dependable in GS and IP) 25 Frail 22 Price 12 Nate 15 Velazquez+Johnson 2020 12 Perez 9 Nate 7 Godley 6 Mazza 10 Brewer+Houck+Hart 2021 32 Nate 31 ERod 30 Pivetta 22 Richards (demoted) 22 Perez (demoted) 22 Houck+Sale 2022 33 Pivetta 26 Hill 23 Wacha 20 Nate 26 Wink + Crawford 20 Bello+ Whitlock and 2023 21 Bello 19 Eovaldi (on IL) 16 Crawford (was in pen) 16 Paxton 13 Frail 13 Houck 10 Whitlock Yes, Nate provided the best prolonged pitching by one pitcher since he came here in 2018, but he was not and still is not, and never has been a workhorse.

Then, subtract just about every other signing to match his AAV. Go ahead: take the worst contracts, then compare, I'm not even convinced signing him to a $200M/7-8 deal, earlier will prove to be worth it.

The other being Chris Frail.

The big killer was Judge, although an injury to him should not have been "stunning. fWAR '22>'23 11.5>3.5 Judge (looks stunning but the injury was not shocking) 3.7> 0.9 Trevino (a big drop, but did you really have high expectations, here?) 3.0> 0.5 LeMahieu (I don't really see this as stunning, due to his age and trend) 2.8> 1.9 Torres (pretty close and certainly not a stunning drop) 2.4> 0.8 Rizzo (This is not far from expectations) 1.2> -0.4 Stanton (This one hurts but not totally unexpected) 2.3> 0.0 Carpenter (You expected this repeated?) 1.7> 0.0 Higgy (a drop) 1.6> 0.0 Donaldson (Totally expected) 1.4 IKF>1.7 Volpe (an improvement) 1.4 Hicks>1.6 Bader (an improvement) 1.5>- 0.6 OCab 0.3 Gallo>-0.4 McKinney (meh) Team 2022>2023 .241>.230 BA (.276>.266 BAbip) .325>.305 OBP .426>.399 SLG .751>.703 OPS

Signing Bogey would have been a big mistake. Not adding someone like Iggy, when he was available during the season was a bigger mistake. Not playing Reyes a few games, when Cora chose to start Kike, instead, was also a mistake. Hell, as bad as DHam looked, he seemed better than Kike. (I'd have even tried Arroyo at SS over Kike,)

How the 4 games between HOU and SEA go, might determine who we need to pass (along with passing TOR.) SEA and HOU play 4 more games. A 3-1 or 4-0 split might make one target easier than the other. A 2-2 split would allow us to gain 2 games on both, if we go 4-0, or 1 game on bth, if we go 3-1 in those 4 games. Other than those games, we will have to rely on other temas to beat the teams ahead of us. The only teams ahaead of us, who we can pass to make the playoffs, is HOU (7 games) and TOT (3 gms.) The Rays are a long shot, and we only play them 3 more times.

I'm not sure why Bloom's blunders turns Nate into some kind of durable or dependable stud horse.

I've never come close to defending Bloom's choices on rotation additions or moving guys like Whitlock to the rotation. No way does Wacha and Hill even begin to move the needle.

Winck has had an up and down season, with his poor outings bunched up. Wink's AUgust was going great, until his last game Aug1-Aug 15 1.50 ERA amd .668 OPS Against Amazing what one bad game can do... ERA/OPSA 1.50/.517 first 24 IP (14 gmes. 3.72/.787 next 9.2 IP (5gms) 3.12/.758 next 8.2 IP (7gms) 12.46/1.601 next 4.1 IP (3gms) 1.29/.667 next 14 IP (10gms) 9.00/1.029 last 4 IP (5 gms) A different view: 1.50/.517 first 24 IP (14 gmes.) 5.16/.973 middle 23 IP (15 gms) 1.56/.687 last 17 IP (14 gms) not counting his last game on Aug 17th) 3.00/.763 last 18 IP (15 gms) counting his last game

It wasn't about being better, although he was. It's about the Sox not signing any SP'er to more than 1 year from 2019-2023. His only comp was Sale. We was a workhorse in 2021 with 32 GS- The only year he had more than 23 GS since 2016 with the Yanks (24 GS.) 2019: 12 out of 32 starts (38%) 2020: 9 out of 15 (60%) 2021: 32/32 (99%+) 2022: 22/32 (69%) Total: 75/111 or 68% I'm not trying to bash Nate. I'm glad we had him, and the extension was fine, but 68% is not a workhorse, even if it's the best on the Sox over that period of time.

He's on the IL, now. His last start was July 18th.

We had a revolving door of 1 year signings. Calling Nate a "workhorse," within any context is a joke (or sarcasm.)

Yes, I know. That's why I mentioned passing HOU and TOR, not the team we don't play, SEA. We play 7 vs HOU and 3 vs TOR. THat's enough to pass both. Passing both gets us in the dance. (Not that we can't pass the surging Mariners, either.) Of course, sweeping TOR won't be easy, while also going 6-1 v HOU, but at least it's in our own hands with them. Going 2-1 v TOR and 5-2 v HOU would give us a great chance at passing both. Also, since HOU and SEA have 4 more games, that's 4 losses split up, somehow, so maybe just 4-3 v HOU might be needed, if HOU knocks SEA down a few pegs, or SEA does it to them. No doubt, we have our work cut out for us, but we do still have our destiny in our own hands, and don't need other teams to win or lose.

I agree, and who knows? Maybe, JH would have decided to spend more than he has, or he could have just told Mookie to sit tight through the farm build up. They could have traded Devers and been in this same situation, but with Betts not Devers. It's a big maybe, because we don't know if Betts would have signed with us at any price. I try not to think about the loss of Betts, because it hurts, so much. I try to understand why JH made the choice to go cheap on the most complete player we've had in over 50 years (at least.) I've accepted what happened, somehow, but what seems to bother me most, now, is why so many blame Bloom for it. I know that seems weird, but somehow I've made peace with JH's choice, and feel like the 4 rings he helped make happen will never get me to the point where I hold the Betts situation against him enough to turn on him. For one thing, we never know if Betts might have just not wanted to sign with us, or the Dodgers would have offered some outlandish amount, even you and I would maybe say, let him walk. It's all too speculative and convoluted, at this point, but no doubt, it hurts like hell seeing Betts play like he has always played and smile like every fan loves seeing a guy who loves the game as much as he does.

SEA beating up on HOU is now making the Astros a better target to pass.. We play them 7 times in the next 2 weeks, so just maybe... 70-64 HOU WC2 68-55 SEA WC3 68-56 TOR -0.5 65-58 BOS -3.0 (-2.5 TOR and -4.5 HOU) We play... HOU 7 times TOR 3 times SEA 0 times HOU still has 4 games vs SEA, including tomorrow. TOR is done playing HOU & SEA.

Because they play so many games against teams we have to pass, we may not need to go 27-12. We might be able to go 24-15 or 23-16, with some targeted wins v HOU and or TOR.

His OPS went up 49 points! 4-6 w 2B 5-5 w 2B, HR 4-4 w HR 4-6, today WOW!

"Excellent?" I was wrong saying he's "not plus," but you and I differ on this one. He has looked plus, this year, but overall, I'd say he's about average. He's not part of the problem with our D, but I'd trade him for other reasons.

TOR pulled out a close one, as the Reds has 2 & 3rd with 1 out in the 9th. SEA is up 6-2 on HOU, which is making our 7 games with HOU in 2 weeks a possible flip in the standings opportunity, if we can romp.

...and the rest of 2023. We need Casas to improve at 1B and Devers to get back into a decent defensive groove that he has shown a few times over the past 2-3 years. Duvall is decent in CF. Duran in LF is better than Yoshida, but having Yoshida DH, squeezes Casas or Turner to the bench. The way Duran is slumping, maybe some sort of rotation or platoon can get everyone just the right of playing time. Good to see Dugo hitting, again, but his D is no plus. (I think we trade him, this winter.) I really like the Wong and McGuire tandem behind the plate, going forward. With Teel in the wings, we have one less position to worry about.

He really has been impressive, basically all year. After his first start, he has a 3.13 ERA. I think Pivetta will likely have a rotation slot, too, unless he implodes. If we can get Urias or Y.Y. from Japan, I'd be thrilled, but getting 2 solid SP'er would make my day (or half decade.) SP1. Urias SP2. Bello SP3. Y.Y. SP4. Crawford SP5. Houck SP6/LR. Pivetta SP7LR. Sale SP8//LR Whitlock LR/SR Murphy Set Up Bernardino Set Up Schreiber Set Up Martin Closer Jansen