moonslav59

I do think the farm is more bottom level heavy, but I don't think we are all that weak at the top. Here is a look at what the farm has given us, recently and the ETAs on those to come: We have no graduated prospects prior to May 2021 on our roster, except Devers (SEP '17. Graduated: 2021: Whitlock, Houck, Dalbec 2022: Bello, Duran, Crawford, Winckowski, Wong, Ort 2023: Casas, Bernardino, Kelly MLB Experience (not graduated): 13. Murphy, 11. Walter, 10. E Valdez, 22. Hamilton, 47. J Jacquez ETA (RED= Rule 5 this winter) 2023: 18. Mata (injured) 2024: 1. Mayer, 3. Rafaela, 5. Yorke, 6. Drohan, 20. Abreu, 25. Guerrero, 26. R Fernandez 2025: 9. Wikelman, 12. Bonaci, 14. Meidroth, 15. Jordan, 17. Paulino, 21. Hickey 2026: 2. Bleis, 4. Anthony, 7. Perales, 8. Romero, 19. E R-C, 25. Castro, 29. Ravelo, 30. Rogers 2027>: 16. Joh Garcia, 23. Cespedes, 27. C Coffey, 28. Alcantara, 31. Brannon, 32. Monegro In this light, the talent seems pretty evenly distributed.

It's hard to know just how good the farm is, especially with all the HS picks in our drafts. Ben's farm ended up not doing all that great in the bigs, but they brought us a lot in trade. We do seem weaker at the AAA level, but we just graduated Bello, Casas and Duran, and before that Whitlock and Wink.

Mayer.

Excellent post. I do think the GMs hire or keep the guys in charge of scouting, developing and indicating who to draft and sign, so they do deserve some credit.

That is something new, so maybe it is reversible. It is a concern, though. OPS v L .439 in '20 (22 PAs) .639 in '21 (137 PAs) .766 in '22 (101) .813 in '23 (145) I find these issues more concerning... OPS 3rd time through: 1.489 in '21 (18 PAs) only 3 PAs in 2022 .901 in '23 (51 PAs) Pitch 51-75 1.103 in '20 (15 PAs) .726 in '21 .663 in '22 (31) .931 in '23 (51) The real danger is likely a lefty the 3rd time through.

Cora said they wanted JS to pitch back to back days before a call-up, so here it is. He did well in both. Maybe gets called up Sat or Sun. Who goes down? Jacques?

Tough call with such a small sample size. I'd lean towards a YES. I'm terrible at projecting longer term deal amounts, especially for pre-arb players.

The Brewers are in first place, despite being swept by the A's 3-0.

Duquette left Theo a very nice foundation with very little deadwood and a decent farm system. I'm not sure I'd bump him over anyone, except Ben. Bloom's farm is largely TBD. Ben's farm was useful for DD to trade away for several ket pieces, but as it turned out, his prospects did not do as well as expected. Should he get points for the fact that DD turned them into Sale, Kimbrell & others. Too many poor big ticket decisions puts him last, in my book. I wanted to see him get another year or two at the helm, but in hindsight, I'm not sure we win another ring. 1. Theo 2. DD 3. Bloom (may pass DD, if his prospects amount to anything.) 4. Duquette 5. Ben

As players start returning from the IL, including maybe 3 from the 60 day, which would create a need to clear a roster slot, we will need to send some players to the minors and trade or DFA others. 60 Day IL Schreiber (may be called within a week) Story (mid August?) Sale (mid August, if at all?) IL Reyes (is ready, now. His rehab time expires very soon.) Houck (early/mid August?) Whitlock (mid August?) Kluber (not sure anyone cares) McGuire (August?) My Ordered DFA/Trade list: 1. Ort (2 options remaining) 2. Garza (3 options remaining) 3. Jacques (3) 4. Alfaro (0) only when McGuire is activated 5. Kluber (0) He might be 1 or 2 on my list, but maybe he can get one more chance to show he can be a plus. 6. Bleier (0) 7. Duvall (0) Trade Only 8. Kike (0- last year of control) or Arroyo (0- 1 more arb year) 9. DHam (3) He will not be DFA'd. Here is what I would do... Ups> Demote Schreiber> Jacques (DFA Ort as JS comes off the 60) Reyes> Trade Duvall or Kike (take Story off 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing) Houck> Walter Whitlock> DFA Kluber or Blier (take Sale off the 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing) McGuire> DFA Alfaro Story> DFA or trade Reyes, Arroyo or Kike (Keep Chang) Someone is likely to get hurt and placed on the short or 60 day IL, before all these guys come back, of maybe some of these guys never make it back, but this is the way I see it, right now. My healthy 26 man roster would be: Paxton, Bello, Sale, Crawford, Houck Pivetta, Whitlock, Winckowski Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Joely, (Bernardino or Murphy/ demote the other) Wong, McGuire Casas Story, Chang, Reyes, (Kike or Arroyo) Yoshida, Refsnyder Duran, (Duvall) Dugo Turner I think we should trade one from Duvall, Kike or Arroyo and keep Chang and Reyes on the 26 and 40.

Yes, more likely he plays OF or something over DH, but he might hit well enough to DH, IMO.

With our excellent long relief crew, we no longer have to worry about yanking Houck after 18 batters faced.

He has adjusted well. He still needs to walk more, but his D can carry him by itself.

I could see us thinking about selling high on Walter or Murphy. Selling low on Mata might be a mistake, but he could be a throw in. I think we will trade Duvall, even if we are mostly buyers. BTV accepted: To BOS: Stroman To SFG: Duvall & Walter To CHC: Perales & Simon

Fixed that for you.

True, but I would not say we should count on nothing. I'm hoping on Story, but I would not trade for a SS with Reyes and Chang healthy. I would not trade for a catcher while waiting on McGuire. I'm fine with Alfaro. The pitching mix is a harder call, and I'd add 2 SP'ers, as a result. When and if some pitchers comeback, I'd try to move Houck and Whitlock to the pen, and f Sale returns, Crawford, too. We might be okay, that way, if none return, except one from Houck, Whitlock, Sale or Schreiber.

I agree. In terms of counting on returning players, I see it tis way: I'm counting on Schreiber and Reyes, because both are looking good in rehab. I'm not sure how we squeeze Reyes into the 26 with Chang, Kike and Arroyo already in the MI mix and maybe Story coming back in mid August. Maybe I'm overly optimistic on a Story return and positive contribution. Maybe by Sept 1st? I'm not counting on anything from Sale. Been there- done that, too many times. I will only add that before my hopes were two-fold with him: 1) He can come back and pitch for a longer stretch. 2) He can regain most of his previous form. I do think part 2 was answered in May. Out of Houck and Whitlock, I'm counting on one to come back and do well. I'd love to see both come back to the pen, but we'd need to add a couple starters. (I do worry that they might come back and linger around 4.50-5.50 or worse.) I'm okay with Alfaro, so the McGuire return is not essential. If we feel like we should be buyers, and right now, I think we should be , but without trading top prospects. Acquire 2 decent SP'ers with hopes the pen gets a big boost from returning pitchers. It is hard to imagine a pen "boost," right now, because our pen has been near perfect, of late. I could see us dumping Kike or trading Duvall. Maybe a three way trade with Duvall, where we add a prospect (Walter?), the third team adds a prospect and the other team sends us a decent and reliable SP'er. We may have to trade Paulino and Mata for another decent SP, but more like a 5th starter type.

By the time Yorke and Mayer are both ML fulltimers, assuming that happens, we should be able to work it out. Maybe trade one or DH Yorke, until Story's contract expires.

They are waiting for one more loss. They've been fooled before.

Yo, tambien.

Lots of Bloom bashers have stopped coming around as much.

Woo won big. 3-5 Rafaela w 4 rbi (up to .916) 1-3 DHam w 2BB 2-4 Scott w BB (up to .900) POR won 4-0 Coffey 5IP, 4H, 0ER, 1BB, 10K (3.09 ERA) Schreiber scoreless inning Hickey 2-4 w HR & 2B (.887 OPS) Mayer 2-4 w 2B Rosier 2-4 (.859) GRE won 7-2 Blalock pitched well Anthony 0-2 w 3BB SAL won 6-4 Asigen homered (1st) AHern 2-4 w HR

The A's tried to hand it back to us, but we refused the offer.

I had hopes that Houck or Whitlock would be back earlier, but this could work out well. When you look at how well this team is playing, and you figure we have 4 of our original SPers and 3rd best RPer returning, plus your best defensive infielder who might also be our 3rd or 4th best hitter all returning in maybe 2-4 weeks, there seems to be reason for raising expectations.

Injury Updates: Big news: Story is scheduled to play 5 innings at SS on Friday, DH on Saturday and SS on Sunday. The rehab stint may last about 20 days (Aug 10th?) Cora says they will not rush him. Schreiber is scheduled to pitch back to back rehab games July 19-20 and may return between July 23-25. Cora said he may get called up before those back-to-back games. Sale felt good after mound throwing session, yesterday. It's unknown when he starts a game in the minors or returns. My guess is AUG 10-15, at the earliest. Reyes is lighting up the minors while rehabbing. He could be called up at any moment. He's out of options, so who goes? (Duvall or Kike trade?) Houck started throwing July 11th. He is expected to throw from the mound on July 25th. Cora says he "feels good." I'm guessing early to mid AUG. Whitlock has started playing catch. His return in unknown. McGuire is supposed to start rehabbing around July 25th, so it could be mid AUG for him. Kluber? I barely care, but who knows? Maybe he has something left in the tank. I'm not counting on anything from Mondesi, Kelly or Mills.