moonslav59

The sample size of Japanese pitchers in MLB in their primes has certainly grown over the years, but it still pales compared to US and Latin American grown SP'ers. We'd need a percentage of success rate to see how much the country of birth adds to the risk factor. The Japanese leagues have improved since Nomo and Dice-K. The scouting has improved, there, too. No doubt, Yamo is a hug gamble. His age makes him very unique. In the last 30 years (1994-2023,) here are the top fWAR ranked Japanese SP'ers and their rankings: 49. Darvish 34.4 83. Nomo 27.5 (there might be 830 US born pitchers to 1 Japanese born pitcher in MLB since '94. Okay, that is likely hyperbole.) 109. Kuoda 22.4 (138. Ryu 20.0+ is from Korea, if we want to pivot to Asian pitchers.) 154. Tanaka 18.8 (Basically, about 1 in 40 of the top SP'ers- in the last 30 years are from Japan. 1 in 30 are from Asia.) 231. Maeda 14.3+ 283. Ohtani 11.8+ (286. W-Y Chen 11.7 from Taiwan) 290. Sirotka 11.4 301. Ohka 10.9 (7 in the top 300.) (C-M Wang 10.1 from Taiwan) 353. Dice-K 8.7 I might have missed some, as I just scrolled through the fangraphs' list. Since much of total career WAR is based on IP, starting their MLB careers laters than other nationalities must factor into lower WAR numbers- career.

We need 3, but adding 2 solid pitchers might be enough. 3. Bello 4. Sale or Houck 5. Pivetta or Crawford

We have 6 everyday players who can hit and not defend. We don’t need a DH. Devers Casas Yoshida Duran Refsnyder EValdez

With the way Devers plays D, one could argue we will start paying $300M to another DH in 24.

Evidence of the Sham.

Agreed. With 2 TJs, the team should get the opt out!

Think several lesser upgrades on O. You guys could sign Chapman and trade someone else to upgrade another position. Stanton at DH might kill your O or have a rebound and make a big difference. One thing for sure. Both our teams need some major additions.

Bleis has the "tools" but has a very small sample size. Yes, at 19, his ceiling may be high, but I'd put my money on Anthony and Teel over him. I also think Anthony and Teel may very well out perform Mayer in MLB. It's hard to know. Stats aren't everything, but I like the ceilings of Anthony and Teel, too. (Also, Cespedes.) Anthony is 19 and has 574 PAs in the minors. .849 OPS 1.020 in AA (44 PA) .981 in A+ (245) Bleis is 19 and has 445 PAs in the minors. .761 career in minors .607 in A- (142 PAs) .895 (167) Teel is 21 and has just 114 career PAs .977 OPS .979 in 3 seasons of college (812 PAs) Mayer is 20 w 885 PAs .819 in minors .609 in AA (190) .890 A+(164-23) .828(116 '22)

Very true, and the Sox have their share of well-hyped busts, but our record with everyday players is pretty good. Since the Devers call up in 2017, there has been a lull, but we had some draft penalties, the COVID draft and a recent GM focusing on HS players early in his drafts. It seems counterintuitive to think we've done better with pitching from Devers to Casas, but have a look-see: Summer '17 to Summer '23 (Grad dates) Everyday players: Duran '22 Wong '22 (Betts trade) Dalbec '21 Pitchers: Bello '22 Houck '21 Whitlock '21 (Yankee farm system- Rule 5) Crawford '22 Winckowski '22 (Beni trade) Casas and beyond... (May 2023>>>) Everyday: Casas EValdez '23 (Vaz trade) Pitchers: Bernardino (SEA system- waivers) Murphy Kelly Robertson (Kike trade) Jacquez (MiLB Rule 5) Soxprospects has our 6 top prospects as non pitchers. Our pitchers are... 7. Perales 9. Wikelman 15. Drohan (I think overrated) 20. Monegro 6 in a row from 23-28 7 out of 9 from 31-39

Throw over 95 mph as a starter?

I just have a sneaky feeling Cespedes is going to be very special.

When did Nate come back with hat in hand? (He signed with TEX Dec 27th.) We signed... 12/8 Martin 12/13 Jansen 12/15 Yoshida 1/6 Turner 1/12 Kluber 1/24 Duvall Any 2 of these last 3 equal the AAV Nate got. Nate vs Kluber & Duvall Nate vs Kluber & Turner

There wasn't a lot left on the table, in terms of the tax line, so I think he just spent it on non pitchers and the pen. As it turned out, our everyday players were lacking on D and over the second half on O, too. I doubt it mattered, but the concept of ignoring the rotation for 4 years bugs the hell out of me. Brez better change that.

I also get the context. When you slash like we did after 2019, and that was after letting Kimbrell and Kelly walk without replacing them, in kind, spending a lot to slowly catch back up is not a winning strategy. We have spent a lot, though, and if JH was just about making money, he'd have spent less. I understand the theory that he needs to spend "just enough" to give fans the appearance of being competitive, so they buy season tickets, game tickets and NESN subscriptions, in order to increase revenues, but I'm not sure he pulled that off. I think the success of 2021 gave JH some leeway to skimp more than he might normally have done. Was Story and Yoshida part of the "scam?" The Devers extensión? Those are expensive scams. I can't see us being highly competitive in 2024 without going up to the second tax line. Maybe 2025, with the loss of Sale might be different.

I can live with that, but a couple GMs have gone nutty (TEX & NYM.) I will not ding JH for not matching them, but I do think he should have done more. How much more? Maybe we are closer to agreement than we know. We also had a GM who ignored fixing the top of the rotation, especially after ERod left. Perez & Richards Wacha & Hill Kluber & Paxton I don't expect 100% perfection on FA signings, but that wasn't even trying.

I think Rafaela will be an okay MLB hitter (.700-.725 through prime years.) I would guess the odds are he does worse than this over better.

Our last trade for a real good pitcher was Nate in the summer of 2018. Before that, it was a regular thing.

Did we used to draft pitchers more highly? I know Clemens and Hurst were both #1s and Lester a #2. I'm not sure if the percentage of pitchers taken in round 1 or round 1 plus 2 has gone down, or not. That could be part of the drop, but I do think the pipeline/development aspect of our system has declined.

That was the sham. They tried to spend just enough to fool the fans into thinking we'd be competitive. The 2021 season allowed them to "prove it." I think they used that season to pretend they were doing the same, when really, we had no business contending in 2021. It was an outlier year. Signing Story and Yoshida, and now the Devers extension may be a sign they truly want to get relevant, but I'm not falling for it, until I see concrete changes.

I certainly think it's all been a smokescreen or sham, but it's wrong to say JH has stopped spending big. Not "as big," but he has spent a lot since the Story signing, and we haven't even seen the Devers extension kick in, yet. Did we spend wisely? That's debatable. Also, a big reason we have dropped in the spending rankings is that other teams have turned up their spending, big time. We went over the tax line in 2022, after major slashing before the 2020 season. That cannot happen without some major new spending. Arb raises happen every year. That's not the reason we went over. I'm not trying to apologize for JH. I think he made a major blunder by not making sure we kept Betts. I also think that once he left, we could have made a better financial effort to stay relevant, but to say we are not still spending a lot is hyperbole, at best or just plain wrong, at worst.

Even if our pipeline was average, I think SS's have a better success rate, overall. Draft a pitcher, when the estimated success rate and upside potential warrants it.

How about HRam for Beckett? Moncada for Sale? (Yes, a pitcher was included, but the major piece was a non pitcher.)

Agreed. I'm not trying to diss Mayer. I'm just super high on Anthony and Teel, plus it seems like Mayer has more trade value.x I also see a big gap between my #3 Mayer and my #4 Bleis or Cespedes.

Pretty close to soxprospects.com I think the top 3 have a pretty big gap between them and the next set of 2-3 prospects.

Even in 2022, more than half the player payroll budget was Bloom's.