moonslav59

I rescind my apology for questioning your Sox fandom.

A look at next year's budget and roster situation for Bloom, who will likely be GM, next year- like it or not. Lux Tax Budget 29.1 Devers 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 18.0 Masataka 16.0 Jansen 8.5 Martin 4.7 Whitlock 2.0 Refsnyder 125M Total Options: Turner: $13.4M player option/ $6.7M buyout: Project he takes buyout and will be a FA Paxton: $13M x 2 yrs club option + performance bonuses based on GS in '23. Club accepts. Kluber: $11M club option w no buyout. Sox decline option. Joely: $4.25 club option or $500K buyout: Project club buys him out. Bleier: $3.75 club option w $250K buyout. Project club buys him out. Est Option Total $14M for Paxton (counting bonus) Arbitration Estimates: 9.0 Verdugo (3rd arb of 3) 7.2 Pivetta (3 of 4) 5.0 Urias (3 of 4) May nontender (Project goes to arb) 3.0 Arroyo (3 of 3) May nontender (Project nontender) 2.0 McGuire (2 of 3) 1.0 Chang (2 of 3) 1.0 Schreiber (1 of 3) 0.8 Dalbec (1 of 3) Arb Total $26M for 16 Players $165M Total 24 Pre-Arb Returnees: Houck Crawford Bello Duran Casas Winckowski Wong Rafaela Murphy Walter Bernardino Robertson Mills Abreu Hamilton Kelly EValdez Mata Reyes (DFA?) Jacques (DFA) Lovera (DFA) Gudino (DFA) Garza (DFA) Ort (DFA) Est. $17M for pre-arbs, 0-3 yr bonus pool and 40 man roster players in minors. Est. $17M player benefits Tax Budget Est before any trades or signings: $200M The 5-6 DFAs opens up some slots for Rule 5 Protectees or eventual FA additions. Others may be traded or DFA'd to make more room. Here is the list of eligible Rule 5 prospects for this coming winter: (I removed players with no chance at protection) Angel Bastardo Allan Castro Juan Chacon Luis De La Rosa Nick Decker Shane Drohan Juan Daniel Encarnación Ryan Fernandez Ryan Fitzgerald Grant Gambrell Jhostynxon Garcia Wikelman Gonzalez Bryan Gonzalez Christian Koss Chih-Jung Liu Matthew Lugo Eddinson Paulino Luis Perales Johnfrank Salazar Stephen Scott Nick Sogard Jeremy Wu-Yelland Ryan Zeferjahn

NYY win Hou loses Updated standings: 66-45 TBR (-2 ALE) 62-48 HOU (-1.5 ALW) 60-50 TOR 57-51 BOS -2.0 WC3 (-4.0 WC2 & -7.5 TBR WC1) 57-52 NYY -2.5 WC3 56-52 SEA -3.0 56-53 LAA -3.5 Weekend Series: TOR @ BOS HOU @NYY TBR @ DET NYM @ BAL SEA @LAA

Do .145 hitters get arb raises? I think I might want Urias at $4.8M than Arroyo at $2.8M or more. Who know? Maybe we cut him, and you can gloat all spring long.

Good thing baseball players don't repeat their last 68 PAs over and over. It's easy to pick out his weakest area (BA.) His .235 career BA is not good, for sure, but his D is very good, and he gets on base okay (.331 OBP.) He also has decent power- kinda like Chang. Urias has averaged 20 HRs and 27 2B+3B per 650 PAs. (47 XBHs) He's not great, but those numbers are an improvement over: .720 Urias .693 Arroyo .684 EValdez .670 Reyes .624 Chang I'll take a decent improvement on O and D.

Woo won 17-9 Drohan was shady (5IP, 9H, 4ER, 2BB, 6K Robertson pitched the 9th (2H, 0ER, 0BB, 2K) Woo hit 7 HRs (2 by Scott, 1 by DHam, Rafaela, Fitzy, RHern & Zimmer) Scott 3-5 (2B w 2 HRs!) Fitzy 3-5 (2B w HR) Kavadas 2-5 Hamilton stole 2 (40th) POR is losing 13-6 in the 8th Dobbins got lit up (4.2IP, 6H, 7ER, 4BB, 5K) Jordan 2-4 w HR Rosier 2-4 w 2B

BTV Values of all Sox players acquired by Bloom RED- Bloom Non draft or IFA BLUE- Bloom Draft and IFA BLACK- DD carry-overs 63 Mayer 47 Casas 46 Bello 42 Duran 39 Devers 28 Bleis 27 Houck 24 Anthony 20 Crawford 20 Yoshida 19 Yorke 15 Verdugo 13 Rafaela 11 Whitlock 9 Schreiber 9 Alcantara 9 Romero 6 Paxton 6 Wong 6 Paulino 5 Wikelman 5 Winckowski 4 Walter 4 Drohan, Perales, Pivetta, EValdez 3 Jordan, Brannon, Hickey 3 Mata 2 Abreu, Cespedes, Monegro, Meidroth, Guerrero, E R-C, DHam, Bernardino, McDonough, Robertson 2 Murphy, Castro, Jimenez, Bonaci, Fernandez, Lugo 1 Refsnyder, McGuire, Chang, Kelly, Duvall, Rosier, Binelas, Ferguson, Kavadas, Dean, Paez, Rogers, Hoppe, Troye, Coffey, Gambrell, 1 Bastardo

What's your point? The O's drafter college players first, while we drafted HS players first. BTW, I think it's 3 first rounders that have made the bigs for the O's. '19 Rutscham '20 Kjerstad (still in minors) '21 Westburg '22 Holliday (in single A) '22 Cowser '23 Bradfield (has not played in the minors, yet)

Remaining Games: BOS 7 (3H/4A) BAL 5 (2H/3A) TBR 6 (3H/3A) TOR 7 (4H/3A) NYY 7 (4A/3H) HOU 3A TEX 3H LAD 3H DET 7 (4H/3A) KCR 3H CWS 3A WSH TOR 3A BAL 6 (3H/3A) TBR 6 (3H/3A) TOR 6 (3H/3A) NYY 7 (3H/4A) CLE 4H TEX 3A CIN 3H CHC 2H PHI 3A COL 3A OAK 3H KCR 3H WSH HOU 6 (3H/3A) BAL 7 (4H/3A) BOS 7 (3H/4A) NYY 3A TEX 3A MIA 3A ARI 3H LAA 6 (3H/3A) SEA 3H SDP 3A DET 6 (3H/3A) KCR 3H OAK

Exactly. That is what my post showed. I suggested just one of Houck or Whitlock return, and they'd go to the pen to fill Crawford's old long man role. What's the point?

We went 2-4 on the road trip, but after today's TOR loss to BAL, we are one down in the loss column to them and that last WC slot. We have the 6th best record in the AL. We are 5.5 GB the 3rd best record. We are 4.5 GA of the 11th best record (or 5th worst.)

Our pen is already pretty good. We might just need one from Houck or Whitlock to comeback and do well- not both. If one can take Crawford's previous pen roll, we might not have to see Jacquez and Llovera as much, if at all.

Maybe settling on a lower level trade like Flaherty might have made a big enough difference.

We'll never know what might have been available for the $10M or so "left on the table," budget wise. This is not meant as excuse-making, as I agree that more resources should have been focused on the rotation, but Bloom had to choose some areas to "gamble" on in-house solutions, so money could be spent on others. Some of those "gambles" seem to have paid off, so far, while 2 major areas were big misses. SP: He actually missed, at least twice. 1. He swung and missed on the $10M/1 deal for Kluber. 2. He gambled a mix of Sale, Paxton, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Mate, Walter & Murphy could cobble together to fill the other 4 slots. On the surface, it doesn't look like a wild swing and miss, but with the injury histories, it was a significant gamble that looks like a significant loss, unless pitchers return and lead us somewhere special. SS: We've beaten this one to several deaths, already. The plan was to let Kike and Chang hold down the position until Mondesi (May?) then Story returned (August?) When Kike's D blew up from day one, then Chang went on the IL, the choice looked like an obvious blunder. We added Reyes, but then failed to play him, until Kike's horrific D finally was noticed by Cora. One could maybe argue the original plan was not so bad, if Bloom had only added someone like Iggy or played Reyes more. As it turned out, maybe we could have used Duvall's money or some of that $10M, I mentioned earlier, to boost the SS and or SP'er slots, but at the expense of other positions Bloom did choose to seriously focus resources on- all seemingly high need areas. Pen: Our pen sucked, last year, and seemingly overperformed in 2021. Bloom threw a pretty big chunk of the winter budget on the pen OF: Our OF was one of MLB's worst in 2022- both on D and O. Bloom spent a lot of the winter budget on Yoshida. He also signed Duvall to $7M/1. Had he relied on in-house solution, Duran, instead of signing Duvall, maybe SP & SS would have been better. That was pretty hard to predict, and none of us ever suggested Bloom not look for a CF'er. (Bloom also extended Kike in the summer at $10M/1. Of course, we view that as a failure now, and some thought so, at the time, including "Like I said" Red.) DH: Turner was a golden choice for DH and back-up 3B, 1B and now 2B. End of discussion. Great signing. Other areas Bloom let ride with in-house solutions worked much better than SS and SP. 1B: Many complained we started 2022 with Dalbec and Casas as our only real 1B options. Dalbec sucked and Casas got hurt. We basically started with the same 1Bmen with Turner as insurance we really ended up not needed. Casas has been impressive. C: Wong has been a very pleasant surprise. McGuire struggled, got hurt and has not gotten good results from the staff. I'd say Bloom did right, letting this position ride. 2B: This position has been a mixed bag, much like last year. No doubt, the .639 2B OPS has not been good. It was .724, last year, so this looks like a gamble that lost, too. 2B has been one of the most shared positions, this year: 191 PAs Arroyo 100 EValdez 59 Kike 29 Reyes 24 Turner 7 Chang SP: Bello doing well was a gamble that paid off. Paxton was expected to miss time, early, but has done well. Crawford has been impressive in limited duty as a SP'er and long man. Winckowski has not been used as a SP'er but has done well in relief. (Murphy, too. Walter? OK.) Sale had a nice 8 game run after a 3 start troubling start to 2023. Houck did great the first time through a line-up but sucked afterwards. Whitlock never got on track. Mata was on the IL almost all year. It seems many gambles were taken and probably many were needed, unless we chose to spend less on the OF and pen. There are still 2 months left, so maybe something can be salvaged at 3-4 slots: SS, SP (1-2 slots) and 2B, but the final grade at all 3 will likely be bad. 9+ gambles seemed to pay off: LF: Yoshida (many felt he was a gross overpay) CF: Duran & Duvall (needs little explanation) DH: Turner (WOW!) 1B: Casas (no longer a "suspect," but now "my boy.") Closer: Jansen (What a difference a year makes at this slot.) Set-Up: Martin (WOW!) SP: Bello (WOW!) RP/SP: Crawford (WOW!) RP: Winckowski (WOW!) Maybe RF: putting Dugo in RF FT. OF depth: Refsnyder Certainly we can see moves that failed, but I'm finding it hard to see the whole picture as being something looking net negative.

The worst division winner, also.

Yes, the first round is 3 games at the higher seed teams' field.

To me, it looks like it will come down to the health of the 4 guys on IL and not having any key player go on the IL, either. We don't need all 4 to greatly improve our chances, but 3-4 would be great. With 3-4 back and producing, I think we are better than "punchers." With 2 back, "Punchers" might be right. With just 0-1 returning and doing well, we may miss the playoffs, altogether.

I liked the idea of a rental, but they all looked like overpays, in hindsight. I figured there must be some higher priced player whose high salary negated his skill value that we could get for someone like Paulino or Brannen, but I didn't see any deals like that made. I'm okay with what we did. Maybe the Sox scouting report on Civale warns of something. I know I am in a distinct minority, when I say I think a 96% healthy Sox team is a good contender in 2023 (only 1 key player on IL.) With 4 out of 26 key players on the IL, which puts at about 85% healthy, I doubt we can compete. Maybe if 2 of the 4 return and help, we can win. If 3 of 4 return and help, I would not bet against us. The 4: Story, Sale, Houck, Whitlock Let's play devil's advocate and say 3 of 4 return and help (just one from Houck and Whitlock.) This could be our set-up: 1. Duran CF/LF 2. Yoshiada LF/DH 3. Devers 3B 4. Turner DH/2B/1B 5. Casas 1B 6. Story SS 7. Dugo RF (Refsnyder RF v L?) 8. Duvall CF/LF, Refsnyder LF/RF, Arroyo 2B 9. Wong/McGuire C SP: Bello, Paxton, Sale, Crawford, Pivetta LR: Houck or Whitlock, Murphy SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino, Bleier or Joely Maybe, I'm a homer, but that team looks like a playoff team.

I do think the Civale trade options might have made sense, but not the rental deals.

I'm confident one of those 3 will help, and think the odds are 2 will, but we needed help NOW (actually weeks ago.)

HR 25 Dalbec 15 Hickey & Kavadas 14 Jordan, Rafaela, Abreu 13 Mayer 12 Scott, RHern, Binelas & Palka 11 Anthony, Yorke, Hamilton XBHs 37 Dalbec 34 Mayer & Fitzy 31 Hickey, Paulino, Anthony & Castro 30 Jordan & Yorke RBI 63 Jordan 59 Rafaela 58 Dalbec 54 Mayer SB 38 Hamilton 8 CS 37 Rosier 6 36 Sikes 6 33 Rafaela 11 30 Liendo 6 26 Ferguson 4 22 Paulino 6 120+ ABs OBP .431 Joh. Garcia .424 S. Nunez .406 Meidroth .404 Anthony .404 N Yuten .390 Kavadas .388 Dalbec SLG .599 Dalbec .549 Joh Garcia .537 Fitzy .535 Cespedes .520 Hickey .508 Rafaela .506 Jordan .498 Scott Nice BB-K numbers: 40-31 Yoiber Ruiz 26-19 Musett 30-32 K Diaz 66-77 Anthony 58-69 Castro 39-47 Scott Pitching OPS Against (27+ IP) .530 Monegro .542 Soto .587 Guerrero .599 Bolden .600 Dobbins .600 Denlinger .603 Henriquez .608 B Bell .608 Cepeda .609 Bastardo 50+ IP .611 Paez .619 Wikelman .622 Perales .628 L de la Rosa .660 E R-C .681 I Coffey

That was quite a game from Rafaela, Abreu & Scott. Woo drew 11 BBs. Woo is now 7 games over .500. Woo is in 3rd place in a 10 team league, but they are 0.5 GM Durham (TBR.) POR won 3-0 and is 16 games over .500. POR is in 2nd place, 2 GB Somerset (NYY.) 2nd best record in 12 team league. GRE won 6-5 to go 4 over .500. Perales K'd 10 in 5 IP (4H, 0ER, 3BB) Anthony went 3 for 4 with a BB, 1B, 2B and 3B. Paulino went 3-4, too. GRE has the second best record in their A+ league. SAL lost 7-1 to go 5 under .500. The FCL Red Sox are 22-16 (4th place out of 16) The DSL Blue are 20-20 (22nd out of 50 teams) Red is 19-21 (30th)

Like Jansen, Martin and Bernardino?

I think Civale was another option, due to multiple years of control.

That's hard to know, but I do think he has more to say in the matter than MVP is hinting at.