moonslav59

Yes, I think we can, if we don't sign anyone else to a significant contract and for more than one year. The problem might be that his contract could keep us from extending Bogey, Betts or JBJ or replacing Kimbrel, HanRam or Porcello in kind, when their time comes up. I think we'll know more about Devers by next winter and choose accordingly. Machado would be a great addition, and Devers could move to 1B.

Well, we do have Holt, Rutledge and Hernandez who all could turn out better than Shaw in 2017.

My eyesight is bad, so I post in bold. I think Buch is worth the $13.5M, but not much more, so I can see why his trade value is low. My point is that as time wears on, a GM will become desperate enough to overpay. I'm not for handing Buch away, like the Seth Smith suggested offer, as we got Moreland for cheaper than Smith.

The players could have gotten a 26 man roster at least.

We can't look that far ahead, but we do know that not having all these promising prospects and adding a few more players that will require expensive contracts to keep around once their contracts expire is going to make staying a good to great team beyond 3-4 years is going to be very difficult or very expensive for Henry. Let's try to look at the next few years, in terms of who we'll need to replace and how much money will be coming off the books: 2018 $197M Limit: We lose Buch $13.5M, Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M $ Abad ~$2.0M (Total: $27.5M) -- We may be able to fill next year's needs from within (Moreland>Travis, Young>Swihart and Buch> Owens or Johnson), but we could also just sign one year contracts to fill the gaps and carry over the $27M savings to the next year. We will also have arb raises to account for. ______________________________________________ 2019 $206M Limitassuming we keep Sale & HanRam on options) We lose Kimbrel ($13M), Pomeranz, Kelly, Ross (CK + all arbs: estimate $25M) -- Replacing Kimbrel could be costly. Maybe Thornburg, Smith or Kelly will be capable and ready to be a closer. We'll still have 5 starters on the books, so maybe we can get by without replacing Pom in kind. Again, arb raises will eat up some of the available money. One year contracts can hold us over for next year's must year for extending Bogey and replacing Porcello and others. I'm not sure any farm products will help this year. _________________________________________ 2020 $208M Limit: We lose Porcello ($20.6M), Ramirez ($22M), Sale ($13.5M), Sandoval option ($17M or $5M option), Bogaerts (last arb), Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge, Workman (Total: estimate $105M-$5M buyout=$65M) -- This when the reckoning really begins. It's hard to project this far out, but I think we can keep Bogey and Porcello or replace them with high cost FAs and still be under the limit, assuming we haven't signed any big FAs from the previous 1-2 years. Maybe Groome will be ready by this time, but expecting him to replace Porcello is a lot to ask. __________________________________________________ __ 2021 $210M Limit: We lose Betts, JBJ, Wright, Smith, Vazquez &Leon (Total estimate: $55-70M) -- Too far away to project, but here is when having top prospects ready for the bigs would have helped out.

We can't look that far, you are right, but we do know that not having all these promising prospects and adding a few more players that will require expensive contracts to keep around once their contracts expire is going to make staying a good to great team beyond 3-4 years is going to be very difficult or very expensive for Henry. Let's try to look at the next few years, in terms of who we'll need to replace and how much money will be coming off the books: 2018 $197M Limit: We lose Buch $13.5M, Young $6.5M, Moreland $5.5M $ Abad ~$2.0M (Total: $27.5M) -- We may be able to fill next year's needs from within (Moreland>Travis, Young>Swihart and Buch> Owens or Johnson), but we could also just sign one year contracts to fill the gaps and carry over the $27M savings to the next year. We will also have arb raises to account for. ______________________________________________ 2019 $206M Limit:(assuming we keep Sale & HanRam on options) We lose Kimbrel ($13M), Pomeranz, Kelly, Ross (CK + all arbs: estimate $25M) -- Replacing Kimbrel could be costly. Maybe Thornburg, Smith or Kelly will be capable and ready to be a closer. We'll still have 5 starters on the books, so maybe we can get by without replacing Pom in kind. Again, arb raises will eat up some of the available money. One year contracts can hold us over for next year's must year for extending Bogey and replacing Porcello and others. I'm not sure any farm products will help this year. _________________________________________ 2020 $208M Limit: We lose Porcello ($20.6M), Sandoval option ($17M or $5M option), Bogaerts (last arb), Thornburg, Holt, Rutledge, Workman (Total: estimate $70M-$5M buyout=$65M) -- This when the reckoning really begins. It's hard to project this far out, but I think we can keep Bogey and Porcello or replace them with high cost FAs and still be under the limit, assuming we haven't signed any big FAs from the previous 1-2 years. Maybe Groome will be ready by this time, but expecting him to replace Porcello is a lot to ask. ____________________________________________________ 2021 $210M Limit: We lose Betts, JBJ, Wright, Smith, Vazquez &Leon (Total estimate: $55-70M) -- Too far away to project, but here is when having top prospects ready for the bigs would have helped out.

There are so few teams over or near the luxury limit, so I'm not sure how much the tiny raises in the limit is going to affect the overall scope of player salaries and raises. My guess is player salaries are going to continue to skyrocket as will owner profits.

Hill knows this. He has wanted Buch from the Sox, because he knows he could have a great year and get hem to the playoffs. He also knows he could suck or get injured, so he doesn't want to give up much to get him. He's got a point, but I don't think he values Buch as much as the Sox and I do.

Anybody who might acquire Buch would know about the injury risk, a risk of a prolonged struggle or just plain have a full bad season, but they'd be trading for the chance of getting the good Buch. Unlike many other high risk-reward pitchers out there, Buch has actually had several extended stretches of good to HOF level pitching. In today's market, he'd get more than $13.5M/1, but not so much more that we could expect a great return. Buch has a lot of value to this team. If this year goes like past years, we'll be needing more than 6 starters. If we don't, I'm pretty sure he'd help out a lot in the pen, at least until Smith is back to form, but $13.5M is a lot to pay for that role, and if getting under the luxury tax is a significant priority, it makes the most sense to me to trade Buch, but maybe waiting until Smith returns would be the best timing. By then, we may also know if we need a good 6 & 7 starter.

There is a very small chance our farm will be very strong 3 years from now. Beni, Devers, Travis, Johnson, Hernandez, K Martin and Ysla will all be graduated. We will have Groome and whoever we acquire between now and then. Groome will be close to ML ready by then, but how many of the future acquisitions will be near ML ready in 3 years? These guys in the system now have a chance to move up and be ranked in 3 years (age in 3 years): Dalbec 24 3B (1B?) Chatham 24 SS (maybe replace the departing Bogey?) Ockimey 24 1B Chavis 24 3B Longhi 24 1B TBall 25 P Raudes 21 P Shawaryn 25 P Lakins 25 P Anderson 25 P Cosart 25 P Shepherd 27 P Pimental 25 P Bautista 24 P Matheny 25 C Beeks 26 P Y Abar 22 OF B Mata 20 P We're going to have a low draft pick next year and probably lower ones over the following 2 years, and getting players on the international market by outbidding poorer teams just got a lot more difficult. If we can find more Mookie Betts in the 5th round, we could get there, but I wouldn't say there's a "good chance". I agree, kimmi's account was hacked or she missed typed her thoughts. .

As it looks now, the Yanks should be better, but the Jays and O's worse.

I expect a slightly better overall team in 2017 that is better balanced. Better rotation (by a lot) Better defense (especially if Pablo can hold his own at 3rd) Better bottom-of-the-order line-up Maybe a little worse vs RHPs Maybe a slightly worse pen (until Smith gets into form)

I nver valued 1B defense all that much either, until someone provided a list of all the starting 1B on the championship teams over the last few decades. It was pretty eye-opening how many were GG or near GG quality. That list was made many years ago, so I'm not sure what an updated list would look like.

Except he can't back up Pablo at 3B.

Well, if the real Shaw was more like the second half Shaw, then we did well by getting him out of the line-up and getting Thornburg for him. Word has it, that's who Milwaukeee wanted.

Yes, and I was a bit surprised we traded away Pablo's best back-up without signing a corner IF'er that can play 3B too, but I had just lost faith in him. I know I could have been wrong.

That makes 3 of us.

I expect top 5 Cy Young.

Shaw did give us some early season production, especially with the RBIs, but I really didn't expect it to continue going forward.

Well, if he sucks, Swihart should be better, but seriously, I think Leon and Vaz will be a huge upgrade over this: .585 Vaz (184 PAs) .468 Hanigan (113) .500 Holaday (35) These 332 PAs were more than Leon's 283 PAs at an .845 OPS. Think of it this way, if Leon can give us .680 at 400 PAs, and Vaz can give us .650 at 200 PAs, our catcher OPS will be .670, will be an improvement on 2016's .665 total catcher OPS. Maybe they won't do that, but I certainly think they could. Anything from Swihart should up those numbers.

I've googled the new CBA, but found nothing with details.

He might be the 7th starter after Sale, Porcello, Price, ERod, Wright and Pom. That's pretty expensive for a 7th starter or even a 6th..

I don't know about the international signings but I'm quite sure that starting in 2017 any team that goes over its LT limit forfeits all of it's Revenue Sharing. I heard going over, maybe by a lot, reduces the allotment for signing draft choices and the international pool money. Any idea what amount the revenue sharing is? If it's over $5 or 10M, then there's a pretty big incentive to get under the cap, especially when you factor in the 50% tax on the amounts going over the limit. To me, the scariest thing is penalizing/reducing the draft and international pools for going over. Anyone know about that?

Losing Shaw should allow for us to gain on offense. Beni all year. Young all year. Leon all year. Moreland added for RHPs. I'm not pretending that all of this will make up for the loss of Papi, but with other improvements made to this team, I don't think we need to look for all Papi's numbers to be replaced. If I had to bet, I'd say we will score withing 50 runs of last year's team. I'd even bet on scoring the same over finishing 100 runs lower.

I think we'd have given Buch the option, even if we had traded for Sale beforehand. Buch can be traded for a prospect, at worst. At best, he could net us a good prospect or two, or a decent vet from another position. I do think the Sale and Thornburg signings have increased the odds Buch will be traded, but I wouldn't bet on him being traded before the opening day. Remember, we used our 10th starter (O'Sullivan) in early May this year, and then still needed to trade for another starter (Espi>Pom) later.