moonslav59

I don't think anyone cared about Bloom's minor league signings. If they did, they should not have.,

Hardly anyone has done anything, yet. It's too early to judge anything about Brez.

It's a minor league deal!!!!

Tigers sign Maeda for $24M/2. Yuck!

Sox sign Wyatt Mills to a 2 year minor league deal!

Of course a 6-7 year deal for Bogey at $22-23M would have been better, but we signed him for $20M x 3 that ended at age 30. .907 OPS '18-'20 and 137 OPS+ .823 OPS '21-'23 and 126 OPS+ Looks like a damn good deal. JD gave is an .889 OPS over 5 years (135 OPS+) Per 162 games: .292 33 107 Looks like a damn good deal. These two deals are among the best in recent Sox history.

$20M x 3 was a steal!

I have not seen any MPH numbers on Yamo or Imanaga. fangraphs has Monty at about: 91-94 in 2021 92-94 in 2022 93-94 in 2023 These are not great velocity numbers. Sonny Gray: 92-93, 91-93, 92-93 (about the same as Monty) Blake Snell: 94-96, 95-96, 95-97 (looks significantly better) ERod: 91-93, 90-93 (missed time), 89-93 (lowest of these 4.) I think Brez might be looking closely at Seth Lugo: 92-95 (topped out at 97) 93-95 (topped at 96) 92-94 as a SP'er only (topped at 95) I'm not sure what the other 2nd or 3rd tier pitchers are at. Statcast has these numbers for 2023 (1500+ pitches) on 4 seamers: 97 Ohtani, Luzardo (trade?) 96 Severino, Galsnow, E Cabrera & Cease (trade?), Cobb 95.5 Snell 95 M Keller (trade), Paxton (Bello and Pivetta are at 95.) 94 Lorenzen, Clevinger (Sale & Houck) 93 Lugo, Monty, Giolito, Flaherty, Gray

Agreed. I'm not going to believe a change has been made until I see it. I cannot bring myself to believe the statements made, anymore. I could see us signing Lugo and Flaherty/Wacha/Stroman, and I'd be pissed, if that's the best we do at upgrading the rotation. Another scenario might be that we sign Lugo and trade for Cease or Burnes. Depending on what we give up, and if we extend the pitcher traded for, that might be good enough for me, but just barely.

The Bogey and JD deals were two of the best contracts the Sox have made since the Manny deal. We were not burned. We got Bogey for $20M x 3 in his prime. We got very good production from JD over his deal, despite lower RBI totals near the end. Sure, I'd have preferred a longer deal with Bogey, but it was a great extension signing.

Are the highest spin rate pitches all fastballs?

I think stats like ERA+ and ERA- help factor in the eras pitchers pitched in, and Pedro's 7 year stretch is the best in MLB, IMO. ERA- rankings: 1. Slim Jones 30 in '34 2. Pedro 35 in '00 3. Maddux 37 in '94 4. Gibson 38 in '68 5. Maddux 39 in '95 (the best 2 year stretch in MLB history) 6. Pedro 42 in '99 9. Clemens 44 in '05 11. Clemens 45 in '97 13. Pedro 45 in '97 17. Clemens 47 in '90 20. Pedro 48 in '03 23. Pedro 50 in '02 39. Maddux 53 in '97 40. Maddux 53 in '98 (A great 5 year stretch: see below) (Pedro had an ERA- or 53 in 2001 but just 117 IP) 75. Clemens 57 in '98 (A longer stretch of greatness, but not a 7 yrs stretch like Pedro: see below) 83. Maddux 57 in '93 88. Clemens 57 in '86 94. Clemens 58 in '92 Comping the 3: Pedro 13 seasons from '93-'05 with all 100+ IP (7 year stretch in RED) 68 80 83 88 45 61 42 35 53 (only 117 IP) 50 48 82 68 Greg Maddux 15 seasons from "88-'02 (all 199+ IP) with best consecutive 7 in RED: 87 80 86 87 61 (1992) 57 37 39 64 53 53 (1998) 79 65 71 64 (2002) Clemens: 20 seasons from '86 to '06, all over 140 IP, except the last one: 57 (1986 w SOX) 65 72 77 47 61 58 99 57 86 72 (last season w SOC) 45 (TOR) 57 97 (NYY) 77 80 99 88 68 (HOU) 44 52 (only 113 IP) 7 Year numbers, overall: ERA- Pitcher (IP/ FIP) 47 Pedro (1403/2.61) 2nd Johnson at 60, 3rd Brown & Prior 69, 5th Maddux 85 53 Maddux (1675/ 2.59 FIP) 2nd Clemens 65, 3rd Johnson 69, 4th Pedro, Morris & Rijo 71 63 Clemens (1799/2.63) 2nd: Musina at 66, 3rd Guzman 69, 4th Appier & Tudor76 Pedro's IP is 270-400 less than Maddux and Clemens best 7 year stretch, but the ERA- is better than Maddux and much better than Clemens.

Agreed, but also those who try to get the highest spin rate on hard thrown breaking balls, go under the knife often, too.

I agree that Yamo will demand an opt out or two. He has the potential to be great, and could end up better than what the highest contract offer is. When you deal with opt-outs, the structure of the pay by years is more important. If it's backend loaded, then the opt out is less likely. Of course, he'd prefer a front end loaded deal with an opt out after the big payday seasons. It's hard for me to put a number on the highest I'd go. The posting fee is pretty big, too. I don't think MLBTR's projected $225M/9 gets it done. I think he might get $270M/10. At age 25, there is really no comp, except for maybe Tanaka, who signed at age 25 for $155M/7 way back in 2014! My view may change, but right now, I might offer $280M/11 or $290M/12. The extra years would bring down the AAV, and those years would only be at ages 35-36. (Those are Sonny Gray years.)

Look at what Pedro did during the big scoring era!

Some are saying the same about Snell or Monty for 7 years. Maybe Gray takes a 4 year deal, but I doubt it. The BB/9 numbers for Snell scare the bejesus out of me. I kinda like this priority order: 1. Yamo 7-11 yrs 2. Monty 6-7 yrs 3. Gray 4-5 yrs 4. Snell 6-7 yrs Then a big drop: (#3-4 SP'ers) 5. Imanaga 3-5 yrs? 6. ERod 5-6 yrs 7. Lugo 3-4 yrs 8. Wacha 2-3 yrs (#4 starters- I'm not that interested, but if it improves the pen by moving Crawford or Houck there, maybe it's worth it) 9. Y Rod (27 yr old from Cuba) 3-4 yrs (RP or SP?) 10. Stroman 2-3 yrs 11. Giolito 2-3 yrs 12. Flaherty 2-3 yrs 13. Clevinger 2 yrs 14. Mahle 2 yrs 15. Paxton 1 yr (#5s- not the way I like to "improve" the rotation) 16. Lorenzen 2 yrs 17. Montas 1 yr 18. Severino 1 yr 19. Maeda 2 yrs The Wild Cards: 1A. Ohtani 6+ ys (Not interested in paying large for a DH & injured pitcher) 2A. Clayton Kershaw 1 ys (Will likely sign with LAD) 2B. Trevor Bauer 1-2 yrs (I might give him a try.) 4A. Julio Urias (Good enough to be a top 5 SP signing, but he may end up in jail: PASS!)

That's given. I was responding to the point about Brez's willingness to get so bold right out of the gate- or not.

I like the "There was no point..." comment.

Agreed, but first Brez is the one that would have to bring the deal to them and push for it- or not.

Signing Yamo would come down to trusting the scouts, the radar guns and your own instincts. I think Brez will make 1-2 "gutsy moves," this winter. How gutsy is the question. I'm thinking one big trade of prospects that are not "his type" and one major signing, which to me is anyone as good or better than Monty.

My dream is Yamo, Monty & Lugo, but this is the realistic thread. Both Monty & Gray are probably not realistic. Maybe Monty & Lugo are the best we can hope for.

I think we have a legit top 5 chance, depending on JH's willingness to fork it over. A lot will depend on what Brez & the scouts think, if JH gives the green light. I think he is worth the hefty gamble.

Breslow is apparently focusing on hard throwing pitchers. Here is a look at the FB velocities of our prospects, according to soxprospects.com: 7. Perales 94-96 (tops at 99) 9. Wikelman 94-96 (97) 15. Drohan 91-93 (96) 20. Monegro 93-95 (96) 23. Dobbins 92-95 (97) 24. E R-C 91-93 (95) 25. Guerrero 96-98 (100) RP 26. Bastardo 93-95 (97) 27. Mata 95-97 (99) Out of options 28. Hoppe 96-99 (100) RP 31. Fernandez 96-98 (100) RP 32. Walter 89-93 (94) 33. Troye 93-95 (98) RP 34. Rogers 91-94 (96) 36. Gambrell 91-94 (96) 38. Penrod 92-94 (96) 39. Paez 89-91 (92) 44. I Coffey 88-90 (91) 46. Cepeda 95-96 (98) RP 47. Sena 94-97 (98) RP 49. Olivarez 93-97 (100) RP 52. Zeferjahn 95-97 (98) RP 54. Liu 93-95 (98) RP 55. Soto TBD 56. Early Low 90's 58. Cohen TBD 59. Mullins 90-94 RP 60. Song 89-92 (93) Top Velocity for SP'ers (as of now) 99 Mata 95-97 (out of options- may make pen) 99 Perales 94-96 97 Wikelman 94-96 97 Bastardo 93-95 97 Dobbins 92-95 96 Drohan, Rogers, Gambrell, Penrod

SNY's Andy Martino reports that Yamo's plan on choosing a team to sign with may be like this: 1. The first stage is a round of phone calls and Zoom meetings with all of the interested teams. 2. Yamamoto is then expected to arrive in the United States for a series of in-person meetings and further negotiations with however many finalists make this second and presumably last stage of talks. The timeline for these in-person sitdowns is after baseball’s Winter Meetings (December 4-7), which will allow teams a better sense of the pitching market if some other top hurlers are signed or traded in the interim, and allows Yamamoto’s camp that same knowledge as well as perhaps extra negotiating leverage, if remaining suitors are even more desperate for pitching. Though Yamamoto’s posting window extends until January 4, it “is not expected to require that much time” for the right-hander to decide on a contract. It would tentatively seem like he might have his decision made sometime between mid-December and Christmas Day. Martino also adds a clarification to a statement made by Wolfe earlier in the week, as the agent told Japanese media during a conference call that his client would have no problem playing with another Japanese player. Due to a translation error, this was incorrectly interpreted as Wolfe saying that Yamamoto was prioritizing teams that already had at least one Japanese player on the roster, which isn’t the case.

MLBTR reports... Right-hander Yariel Rodriguez held a private workout today, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the Red Sox and Padres were the two teams with representatives in attendance to watch the righty, who threw two innings during the workout. Rodriguez, 27 in March, was declared a free agent by MLB earlier this month after he was granted his release by the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez spent three seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Dragons, racking up a 3.03 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 175 1/3 innings during that time. His 2022 campaign with the Dragons was particularly impressive as he dominated to the tune of a microscopic 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 frames, with a 27.5% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate. After his dominant work in Japan, Rodriguez suited up as a starting pitcher for his home country of Cuba during the World Baseball Classic, during which he struck out ten while allowing two runs on five hits and six walks in 7 1/3 innings of work between his two appearances. Following his appearances in the WBC back in March, Rodriguez sat out the remainder of the 2023 campaign as the Dragons placed him on the restricted list prior to granting the righty his release last month. Public evaluations of Rodriguez are few and far between thanks to the unusual nature of his free agency, but given his unusual youth for a free agent and dominant numbers overseas, it’s easy to see why teams in need of pitching help would be interested in his services, particularly if they believe he can start in the majors. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez #28 on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list earlier this month, projecting him for a four-year, $32MM contract. Earlier this offseason, Romero relayed a list of ten teams that had shown interest in Rodriguez that included neither Boston nor San Diego, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times indicated that the Rays were among fifteen teams that were represented at a workout held by Rodriguez last month. It’s unclear what level of interest the clubs connected to Rodriguez thusfar this offseason have in the right-hander, though it’s easy to see how the Red Sox and Padres match up as potential fits. Boston has made it clear that additional starting pitching help is a priority for the club this offseason, including the possibility of pairing a top-of-the-market arm with a second, more affordable piece. Rodriguez could make plenty of sense as a secondary acquisition for Boston. Young arms like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford have all shown an ability to pitch both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, helping to ease the risk involved in signing an arm like Rodriguez, who hasn’t pitched regularly out of the rotation in professional games since 2019.