moonslav59

I thought we should have had a fire sale, last deadline. I agree: big mistake. I thought we should have been buyers, this deadline. I doubt it would have helped. I think I was wrong, this year and right, last year- in hindsight.

100% I was begging we add 2 SP'er.

I wasn't hinting that terrible hitting SSs can be of great value, overall, due to spectacular defense, but one can be a significant plus on fWAR while being a minus on offense. 2018-2023 fWAR Short Stops (6 year sample size) 13.3 fWAR Brandon Crawford (-13.7 Offense and +58.4 defense) 10.5 Nick Ahmed (-48.9 O & +83.9 D) 9.0 Elvis Andrus (-42.8 0 & +40.4 D) Some SSs who have very high fWARs based more on D than O, but are still okay to good on O: 31.8 Lindor (highest fWAR as a SS in MLB) +88.1 O and +104.3 D 19.4 Swanson (7th best fWAR) +20.0 O and +67.1 D (The guy I wanted us to sign) 10.0 Baez (8th in fWAR) +13.0 O and +74.1 D BTW, Story has been.... +18.2 +59.0 on O (6th best O number out of top 9) +35.4 on D (5th best D number out of top 9) Bogey +25.7 (3rd best) +128.1 on O (second best O number out of all SSs- T Turner at 135.0) +15.0 on D (The worst D number out of the top 9 fWAR SSs.)

Counting inflation and the posting fee, the Yoshi AAV is about like JD's- maybe less but with less production, too.

The difference between $40M/3 and $50M/4 deals vs $7M/1 & $10M/1 deals is likely a better gamble than $50M/4 vs $200M/8 to $250M/8 deals.

Indeed, and watching Mayer go on to greatness as the SP'er get implodes would be a double whammy hurt.

My theory is that the team's plan has been to wait on adding big SP'er contracts until the very end of the rebuild process, as they tend to decline quickly after signing. One example was signing Pablito and HRam before Price, instead of Scherzer, first then _____.

If Teel's bat is great, he can DH on "rest days." Yes, Wong would make for a fin e back-up, and we'd trade McGuire.

The thing about getting Gray is that the length of the deal would likely be shorter than others, due to his age. I'm not optimistic we outbid everyone for 2 top 7 or 8 pitchers, but I think we need to do just that, or trade for one while signing a top 4 SP'er.

It still happens. Luis Castillo was one example.

The word "pretending" seemed out of place. We are trying to win every game, and I think Cora is putting the team he thinks gives us the best chance to do that. I can see the value in playing Rafaela everyday, in terms of getting a better read on what we can expect in 2024, but I don't think a few more PAs changes that read much. We often hear about the fans wanting to see our best players out on the field, as in the Cora resting our best players, too often. Now, it seems like we are wanting Cora to not play who he thinks gives us the best chance to win. BTW, all that rest has really helped us, late in the season, right?

Taking small sample sizes and projecting to 650 PAs often raises eyebrows, but here are some fWAR guesstimates on 2023 Sox numbers at 650 PAs: 5.8 Abreu 4.3 Duran 4.2 Duvall 3.7 Rafaela 3.0 Devers 2.9 Verdugo 2.5 Reyes 2.1 Turner 2.0 Casas 2.0 Wong 2.0 McGuire 0.9 Yoshida 0.6 Refsnyder 0.0 Story & Urias

SS defense is worth way more than CF defense.

Current Sox OBP Leaders (375+ PAs) .364 Casas .354 Turner .345 Yoshida .343 Devers .338 Dugo Gone are the days of .375 to .410 OBP guys on the Sox. Under 375 PAs .471 Rafaela (17 PAs) and Abreu (38 PAs) .365 Refsnyder (224) .346 Duran (362) .340 Reyes (155) .338 Urias (75) .321 Duvall (302) .317 McGuire (172) .309 Wong (360)

I'm not anti-Dugo. I'd be fine extending him and trading the higher valued Duran is a larger package for a SP'er (see your MIA post.) He's a better defender and maybe even a better bet to do well on offense in the next 2-3 years over Duran. I like Duran's speed, and if I knew he could get on base over 35% of the time, I'd trade Dugo instead. IMO, one should go, this winter. Like you said, OF has a surplus, and I really like Rafaela and Abreu. (I even like Rosier.) I would not hand a starting position to any of these rookies, but I'd set it up where one slot could be won by either or both. I'd like us to trade Duran or Dugo and bring Duvall back, but not as our CF'er. Neither Duran or Dugo will bring back a very good pitcher, so a package would be needed for both. The one with Dugo would require better or more prospects attached, but something should be worked out.

...and a couple others, but this time, I don't blame them for thinking we had a chance. (Wrong again!)

It shows how important the metrics place on DD defense. If Story can just hit .730-.760, next year, and stay healthy, he may lead the team in fWAR.

I still like Wong better, on O and D, but the word on McGuire was that he was good on D. I figured we'd end up seeing improvement from him, eventually. Wong's bat has impressed me. Although I think Plawecki was pretty good on D, and Vaz had some good numbers in some areas of defense, I like our catcher D better, now. I had hoped our 2023 could come close to our 2022 catcher offense, and they have done just that! .694 in 2022 .712 in 2023 Other positions: .683 1B> .859 .724 2B> .649 .856 3B> .828 .815 SS> .641 (79 RBI> 66 RBI) .694 LF> .820 .671 CF> .842 .661 RF> .768 .763 DH> .774 +.176 1B +.171 CF +.126 LF +.107 RF +.011 DH -.028 3B (kinda the same.) -.075 2B (Had Urias and Reyes played 2B all year, this may have been not so bad.) -.174 SS (Bogey is at .756, so we would have seen something near -.059 had we kept him.) The improvement in OF offense has been astounding: .676 2022 .809 2023

How does "pretending the games matter" look differently than "playing your best to try and win?"

BTV really took an axe to Rafaela's value, recently. I'm not sure why. Abreu sure looked good, yesterday, but his defense has seemed shaky, tq say the least. Is he also best suited for LF?

It's hard to know how he can or will handle trading prospects, since his track record is pretty much non existent, except for Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. His track record on big signings is not off to a good start. If the prospects are not as good as we think, then trading as many as possible might work out well (kinda like DD trading away highly ranked prospects that mostly underperformed.) If the prospects end up being good or very good, there will be plenty of "space to play them all," or we trade a couple here and there, once logjams are determined. Right now, we don't have any AAA prospects beating down the door at any position, let alone one already filled by a stud. C: Teel can replace McGuire (trade RM) 1B: We have no top 1B prospect. Casas da man. 2B: We have room for the next MI prospect, here (or Story to 2B as Mayer plays SS) SS: See Mayer to SS and Story to 2B. 3B: Devers forevers OF: Plenty of room for Anthony & Bleis in a few years. Plenty of room for Rafaela and Abreu, now, and Dugo is gone after this year. Yoshida to DH opens an OF slot. Pitching? We could use 8 and have about 2-3 promising pitchers who may be called up in 1-2 years. There is room for one and all. (Only Yorke and Zanetello may end up being bottle-necked in the next 2-3 years, IMO.

Indeed, and I think not running out ground balls is part of the "cancer" opinion. My reason for considering a trade of Dugo is more about his one year of control and our need to flip a position from a LHB to a solid RHB. Counting on Rafaela's bat to be the RHB, after Duvall and JT bolt, is an issue. We aren't replacing Yoshida, Devers or Casas. We could trade Duran, instead, but then we'd need another OF'er after Dugo bolts. Hopefully, Story can be a big RH'd bat, but I think we need another.

No comment. BTW, I expected some response to this post: Re-visiting the Catcher-Pitcher dynamics on the Sox in 2023. Bello w Wong 3.27 ERA/.727 OPSA (321 PAs) w McGuire 4.05/.764 (256) Pivetta w Wong 3.38 ERA/.639 OPSA (280 PAs) w McGuire 6.36/ .881 (211) Crawford w Wong 4.89 ERA/.767 OPSA (301 PAs) W McGuire 2.81 ERA/.481 (98) Paxton w Wong 4.58 ERA/.724 OPSA (316 PAs) w McGuire 4.70 ERA/.846 (73) Houck w Wong 5.21 ERA/.734 OPSA (329 PAs) w McGuire 4.91 ERA/.833 (48) Sale w Wong 3.31 ERA/ .641 OPSA (284 PAs) w McGuire 11.25 ERA/ 1.061 (64) Major unbalanced samples Wink w Wong 3.56 ERA/.751 OPSA (181 PAs) w McGuire 1.42 ERA/ ,619 (111) Whitlock w Wong 5.52 ERA/.921 OPSA (198 PAs) w McGuire 5.40 ERA/.734 (70) Kluber w. Wong 6.00 ERA/.918 OPSA (51 PAs) w McGuire 7.33 ERA/.982 (206) Major Unbalanced sample sizes Martin w Wong 1.36 ERA/.615 (129 PAs) w McGuire 0.73 ERA/.350 (44) Jansen w Wong 3.86 ERA/ .743 (132 PAs) w McGuire 2.08 ERA/.487 (47) Some sample sizes are rather small and or lop-sided. Judge for yourself.

Fans still come to the games and watch them on TV. They enjoy winning more than losing. It's not "pretending."

We play the Yanks in our next series. If one team wins 4 or 4 out of 4, it could easily end up deciding their placement and .500 status.