moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes, if he goes on the IL, Dalbec will be called up. Who plays 1B when Cora rests casas once every 16 games?
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Here is a better way to look at it. GS split seasons. Wacha averaged 23.3 GS per season over the last 3 seasons. 150 slots for SP (5 x 30 teams) x 3 seasons= 450. 269 pitchers started 24 game over the last 3 seasons in any given season. That is over half or 450. 90 top tier out of 5 91-180 2nd tier 181-270 3rd tier which is where Wacha sits (high end of 3rd tier.) High end middle 271-360 4th tier 361-450 5th tier He's high end middle and this is his worst stat over the last 3 years. -
No, it's not, but you keep focusing on just the bad stats, when you often cite WAR. ERA- and WHIP are not meaningless stats, either. He is first in WHIP among the sample of pitchers in question. He is 3rd in ERA-. Does that mean nothing?
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In all fairness, better pitchers like Bello were not in MLB in all of 2022. He is likely about in the middle of FT SP'ers IP and GS from 2-22-2023 and 2021-2023. 2021-2023 GS (225 SP'ers with 100+ IP 94 Monty 84 R Hill 83 Stroman, Snell 82 Gray 79 Pivetta 77 Naate 74 Perez, ERod 70 Wacha (58th in MLB!) That's top 2 tier out of 5 tiers. Adjust for younger pitchers not in the bigs all 3 years, and he's likely about 75th out of 150.
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Nice line to pick. Wacha places 65 in IP as a SP'er from 2022-2023. Out of 150 SP slots in MLB, it's not good, but it is far better than most. IP 2022-2023 as SP: 267 Pivetts 262 Wacha 260 R Hill (2 teams) 253 Nate (BOS & TEX) 209 Bello (understandable, since he was called up in '22) 169 Crawford 122 Houck 108 Sale 367 Monty 346 Gio 308 Snell 304 M Perez 303 S Gray 272 Stroman 245 ERod
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Yes, that was my point. (Perez not Seabold.) In other areas besides xFIP, he was near or even better than many of the other SP'ers like Nate, Bello, Sale and ERod. Look at ERA- vs all of 'em- he's 3rd WHIP: He's tops in this stat IP is above Sale and near ERod & Nate 3 years IP 477 Pivetta (some as RP) 452 Perez (2 w TEX) 436 Nate (some w TEX) 429 R Hill (2 other teams) 401 ERod (2 yrs w DET) 386 Wacha (2 yrs elsewhere) (I won't count Bello for obvious reasons) 170 Richards (113 as SP) 151 Sale No doubt, the IP is not good, but... . ERA- 85 Nate 87 Sale 93 Wacha- a very decent number 93 ERod 99 Bello (106 Giolito) 107 R Hill 112 Richards 117 Kluber WHIP 1.17 Wacha 1.18 Nate 1.19 Sale (1.28 Giolito) 1.29 ERod 1.30 Kluber 1.32 Pivetta 1.34 R Hill 1.39 Perez 1.45 Bello 1.66 Richards Don't tell me WHIP and ERA- are meaningless stats.
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I'm liking the trade more and more, as I read about Grissom, and remember the recent years of calling Chris freakin' Sale, Freakin' Chris Sale.
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Well said. The Betts situation did "break" things, and what made it worse was the fact that we didn't even try to replace his and Price's contract money with anyone resembling a decent MLB player, until maybe Story in the late spring of 2022.
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I almost always use 3 years, and did provide the 3 year numbers on the Wacha-Gio comp. Just make sure you exclude WAR with your xFIP points made, and we'll call it even.
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It's a rarity and did not happen in 2022 or 2023, at all. GS 2023 Even counting DH starts, all Sox players got 11 games off. 149 Devers at 3B (+2 at DH) 135 Dugo OF 115 Casas 1B (+2 at DH) 2022 Even counting DH starts, all Sox players got 11+ games off. 149 Dugo (+1 DH) 146 Bogey (+2 DH) 139 JD at DH (0 in the field) 137 Devers (+3 at DH)
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Bader to NYM.
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I understood what you meant.
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So, who plays 1B, when Casas sits the mandated 10+ games of rest by Cora? I know you do not want dalbec on the 26 just for that. Until we sign someone else, who can play 1B, and somewhere else, I hope, I think EValdez might be the best option. (BTW, I'm not sure he belongs on the 26 either, but I think more than Dalbec.)
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No. I am using just your stat of choice, xFIP. I like the stat, but think it really hurts non-high K pitchers who get the job done. I value WAR, ERA- and ERA+ more than xFIP.. I also value WHIP and OPS Against as much as xFIP. In these areas, Wacha compares much more favorably. I know you also value WAR, but have not used that in this discussion. In your stat of choice, he falls about in the middle of Sox SP'ers over the last 2-3 years. Throw out Seabold and 4 were better- 4 were worse. That's his worst stat placement.
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Those are facts I did not know. The married part happens all the time. 14 year olds looking like 18+ does not, but does happen, at times. I must admit, I'm being pulled towards this being worse than just "creepy."
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...and their inability to pay attention to details and accurate, consistent messaging.
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Well said.
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So, in effect, after subtracting the $17M we are paying, they get Sale for $21/2, or $10.5M x 2, actual cost. That looks better than our Kluber and Richards deals.
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Wacha's numbers would have been better had he pitched for a better defensive team than BOS in 2022.
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Is it delusional to favor Wacha over Giolito by a slim margin? Both are big question marks for 2024.
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I'm not as high in FIP as you. I value ERA- and WAR more. I just printed the 3 year numbers, and BTW, 4.13 would be better than about half of the Sox primarily SP'ers since 2021. 2021-2023 xFIP (Blue= Almost all IP as SP) 3.38 Whitlock (much as a RP) 3.57 Schreiber (the guy you have little faith in) 3.59 Sale (lack of IP hurts) 3.63 Nate (1 yr w TEX) 3.72 Houck (much as a RP) 3.89 ERod (2 yrs w DET) 3.96 Bello (3.97 Giolito) 4.06 Pivetta 4.13 Wacha (2 yrs with others) 4.22 Wink (much as RP) 4.33 Perez (2 yrs w TEX) 4.38 Kluber ( 2 yrs w others) 4.53 Richards 4.56 R Hill (2 yrs w others) 5.63 Seabold (2 yrs w others. Last in MLB)
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I know you are big on xFIP, and it a very telling metric, but you also use fWAR a lot and value other numbers, too. 2022-2023: xFIP 4.23 Wacha 4.08 Giolito fWAR 4.1 Wacha (5.7 bWAR) 2.8 Giolito (3.3 bWAR) ERA- 79 Wacha 119 Giolito (6th worst in MLB- 230 IP min) WHIP 1.14 Wacha 1.37 Giolito K% 21.3% Wacha 25.5% Giolito BB% 6.9% Wacha (14.4 K%-BB% 9.0% Giolito (16.6 K%-BB%) Do you really agree, it's delusional to think these two are about even with Wacha being slightly better? At the risk of being accused or cherry-picking a time frame, here is my usual sample size chosen: last 3 years: 71 pitchers with 350 IP from 2021-2023 xFIP 4.15 Wacha (525 IP) 3.97 Giolito (369 IP) fWAR 5.7 Wacha (5.2 bWAR 6.9 Giolito (7.6 bWAR ERA- 88 Wacha 106 Giolito K/BB 1.20 Wacha 1.58 Giolito Giolito passes Wacha by adding just 1 more year to the sample size, but is trending in the wrong direction.
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It's really "delusional" to like this over that? 4.89 ERA (4.70 FIP) in 346 IP 3.27 ERA (4.01 FIP) in 262 IP Sure, we need a SP'er who goes 170+ IP over someone who goes 130+, but we have a bunch of pitchers who can give us 4.89. 2022-2023 Red Sox SP'ers ERA as a SP: 4.39 Bello 4.59 Crawford 4.76 Whitlock 4.85 Crawford 4.92 Houck To me, it's a close call on Wacha vs Giolito, but it's not delusional to like either one over the other.
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He's 22, now, and was maybe 20-22 when this happened. Is it all that freaky to date a woman you think is 18 or maybe even looks 20-25? I want to hear all the evidence before judging someone.
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If we are never going to sign a real ace SP'er, and it doesn't look like we have any pitchers on our farm any better looking than Bello or Crawford, eventually, we will have to trade prospects to get one. It does not have to be this winter. We could see how our prospects look for one more season, while also getting a better read on the future of Story, but at some point, I think we have to do what we did to get Pedro & Schilling and a ring, Beckett and a ring, Porcello plus Sale and a ring... TRADE! We aren't getting an ace for a 5 player package of #4 Rafaela, #6Yorke, #7 Perales, #8 Abreu and #9 Wikelman.
