moonslav59

Your most "perfect post," ever!

Yes. To me, my biggest hopes upon his hiring was that he'd... 1. Build up the whole farm system, including significant upgrading of pitcher acquisition & development. (Almost a total failure.) 2. Find "gems in the rough," including pitchers, as the budget cuts necessitated. (Did so less than I expected, but he did nab Whitlock, Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino, Strahm and some non pitchers like Renfroe, JT, Duvall, Wong, Abreu...) 3. Do well on mid-level signings. (Almost a total flop in the $5M to $12M range, except for maybe Wacha and Hill, who did okay.)

I've been kinda high on Imanaga, or maybe more than most. I see him and Stroman as about an even risk. Hard to know. If you told me in mid December, we'd be adding Imanaga, Giolito, Teoscar and O'Neill, I would not have been happy. Now, with my hopes being lowered, it might be the best we can hope for. I'm trying to not use the word "expect."

....and Urias.

As Cypress Hill would say, "Don't chew know I'm loco?"

Do you see Teoscar as being an upgrade from Duvall, especially if we are thinking RF (or maybe CF?)

Does O'Neill hit the ball to RF or R-CF much? If so, those low liners may add some hits to his totals- just not HRs or DBLs, unless they find the gap or are down the line.

Everyone agrees on the need to improve our pitching development system, as well as identifying and acquiring young prospect pitchers through the draft, IFA or other ways like Rule 5, miLFA and trades. That being said, we have made it work for 15 years, in large part, by trading top prospects for frontline pitchers. They weren't always just everyday prospects. The Pedro trade (before the JH era) involved trading two highly regarded pitching prospects, that our farm has not duplicated since. The Schilling trade was for young pitchers, too. Beckett was mainly for HRam, but Anibal Sanchez was highly regarded, as well. Sale was mainly for Moncada, but Kopech was no slouch. Nate was not really thought to be a front line SP, when we traded a decent pitching prospect (Beeks) for him. Our large FA SP'er signings have had mixed to poor results: Price Lackey Dice-K Dempster, Richards and Kluber were not really a big signings. We look reluctant to sign big FA pitchers to more than what Giolito got, but we have made some sizable SP extensions, namely Sale, Nate, Porcello, Beckett, and Pedro- way back.

As you like to say, "I never said" F.E. was signed to trade for an ace. I did not hint that one specific signing was designed to trade later for a stud pitcher. We've drafted and signed way more non pitchers than pitchers. Some advance to a level where they can be traded (maybe as part of a package, maybe not) for a good or great pitcher. I'm not sure if Sox management does this with trades in mind, or not, but many on this board have mentioned that as a by-product of doing so.

I didn't say you said...

The bet will be null in 2 minutes, as someone will bash Wacha. Look, there is 10 guys or more I'd prefer over him. I like him a little more than Gio and maybe a bit more than a few posters, here. I don't think my position is all that extreme.

STEAMER is not a metric or stat. I've never argued xFIP is a bad stat. I don't think it's a great one, due to missing big on guys like Buehrle and others to lesser extents. All stats and metrics have holes in them, or exceptions. I'm not sure Wacha is an example of an exception, but those BAbip numbers that were lower than his norm could have been partially fueled by not allowing as many hard hit balls as his norm.

If you guys stop bashing Wacha, and I'll hardly ever talk about him. Your anti-Wacha obsession is about equal to my obsession- non existent. I like him about the same as Giolito, based on his recent 2 years vs Gio's. I also like Imanaga and Lugo more than most. I liked Gray and ERod. I like Monty and Snell to a lesser degree. I liked Yamo. There is not much discussion over them, but I like(d) all of them more than Wacha, except maybe Lugo.

Of course, the defensive team behind him matters more, and I can that being a big worry with Wacha and the 2024 Sox, but it's not like the 2022 Sox D was great.

Huh? Did I even hint at that?

I meant it to mean a solid #1 or 2 like traded for Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey, Sale and Nate. Not Pivetta, Winckowski, Paxton, Wacha, Hill, Richards, Perez...

Maybe, but I was not specifically referring to Wacha. The poster boy might be Mark Buehrle, who had a career 5.1 K/9 rate, but he pitched 16 seasons in MLB with a 3.81 ERA. His xFIP was 4.22. From 2000 to 2015, he was 7th in fWAR at 42.8. Out of 400 pitchers with 400+ IP in that period, he placed: 83rd in ERA- at 84 (near or tied with Lester, Harden, Cole) 117 ERA+ 134th in ERA T156th in WHIP at 1.28 .291 BAbip 238th in xFIP He might be the extreme case, but I do believe some good but low K pitchers suffer from xFIP focus- just not to this level. I also don't think BAbip is 100% luck. Sometimes, when a pitcher has a better year than his norm, his hard hit% and LD% are down, significantly, too. Wacha's best 4 ERA years: 2014 .288 BAbip/ 32.1 HH%. 21% SH%, 22.1 LD% 2015 .272 BAbip/ 29.7 HH%, 20.6 SH%, 22.2 LD% 2022 .260 BAbip/ 30.3%, 18.9%, 20.5% 2023 .266 BAbip/ 30.0%, 15.4%, 22.5% Career: BAbip: .295 Hard hit %: 33% Soft hit %: 17.3% LD %: 22.6% Wacha beat his career stats in 11 of these 12 indicators of pitching better, so of course his BAbip should be lower to some extent. Maybe some was luck, but not all of it.

One of the main reasons given for always drafting and signing IFA non pitchers is that you can trade them later for more known pitching commodities. That really has not happened for frontline pitching since Nate and Sale, before him. (Some did not view nate as "front line," when we acquired him, and only giving up Beeks is evidence of that position.)

I like Cease, but I prefer traing even more prospects to get a young pitcher with 3-5 years of control, not 2 like Cease. Since it looks like we may never go large and long on a 30+ pitcher ever again, we would not be extending Cease.

I can understand that feeling, but I can't see getting myself to that point. I love the game, a lot. I actually enjoyed watching many aspects of this team since 2021. I'm liking some of DD's unsung prospects doing well. The long stretch of HS players drafted kinds helped prolong the gap left b y trading so many top prospects, but a few are getting real close to the bigs. As you pointed out, tough: no quality young pitchers, except maybe Bello and one or two from Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and Wink.

We have some so-so to decent young arms on the big club and a couple longshots on the farm, but no "top quality:" I agree. 24 Bello, Max Castillo 25 Wink, Murphy 26 I Campbell, Walter 27 Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Criswell 28 Kelly, Weissert 29 Schreiber Note: I listed all with a sliver of hope. Some a teenie-tiny sliver. Farm: 19 Paez, Soto 20 Perales, E R-C 21 Wikelman, Monegro, Early 22 Bastardo, Rogers, I Coffey, Sena, Judice 23 Guerrero, Cepeda, Olivarez, Mullins 24 Fitts, Mata, Dobbins, Troye, Liu 25 Hoppe 26 Slaten, Gambrell, Penrod, Song Sure looks like an unpromising group on the farm!

I'd be shocked, if we sign Snell. Slightly shocked, if we sign Monty. No Matt Chapman. (Sorry notin, but you knew that.) I have zero expectations, but I'm holding out hope for Imanaga. Stroman might work out, okay, but I'm not high on him or anyone else. Duvall or Teoscar might be signed, but I'm not high on them, either. A big trade is probably the best hope for a major improvement to the MLB team, but I've all but lost hope on that happening.

True. Many of the best players from 2018 are not close to the same level, now, but the best of that young core are all gone, except Devers. Had they kept Betts, Bogey, Devers and vet Nate, we'd be better. JD is still good, but so was JT. ERod was a good one, but had some issues with DET. Letting Kimbrel & Kelly go was the start of this decline, but neither is great, now. Keeping Sale proved to a mistake. Keeping Beni would not have helped. JBJ sucks. Vaz is in decline. Barnes? LOL Price & Porcello are out of baseball, so losing them was inevitable. Time has passed many of the old guard, but I'm with you. You gotta lock up your young studs as early as possible, even if you get a couple wrong.

I'm not suggesting it's the best idea, and I'm certainly for trying to build a winning team in 2024, but my point was this: If all we do for the rest of the winter is make a big prospect trade for one young, controllable pitcher, we likely will not be winning in 2024. I'd prefer we wait until we are actually ready to go "all in." If that day will never come, then yes, I agree. Just do the best we can do under the constraints set by JH & Co, and see what happens. I'm all for trading Mayer, Yorke & Wikelman for Luzardo (3 yrs) or Garrett (5 yrs.) If we end up spending more, next year, or not, it should be a better Sox team to watch.

It just seems like more of Kluber, Richards, Perez and more.