moonslav59

Here is how BTV views our 4 winter trades: ATL: Sale -5.7 + $17 Cash BOS: Grissom 17.1 (net +5.8) SEA: L Urias 1.2 BOS: I Campbell 1.9 (net +0.7) Combined (2B + P matches up): ATL/SEA: Sale, $17M + Urias= 12.5 Boston: Campbell & Grissom= 19.0 BOS: +6.5 ___________________________ STL: N Robertson 1.6 + V Santos 0.4 BOS: O'Neill 5.7 (net BOS +3.7) NYY: Verdugo 4.8 (net +1.9) BOS: Fitts 2.1, Weissert 0.8, Judice ??? Combine 2 (RF + Ps) STL/NYY: Dugo + Robertson + Santos= 6.8 Boston: O'Neill + Fitts + Weissert= 8.6 BOS: +1.8 Overall: BOS +8.3 FA Signings: +0.9 Giolito (Value: 39.4/ Salary 38.5) +0.7 Max Castiilo (3.8/3.1) Rule 5: +0.9 Slaten

lol! .

Hard to know. They did lose JD. It might depend on what we pay and or expect back. I'm not sure who wants him, assuming at a discount rate, at some degree.

Good points, and I did say Giolito probably equals Paxton + Sale, but the rotation was our big weakness, and looks no better, on paper, IMO. I do think it is natural to compare last year's team to what we think this year's team looks like to see if we can expect better, about the same, or worse. Of course, nothing is for certain. I think I have reason to not be optimistic, right now. I do realize the winter is not over.

It's not, but normally, that happens when the team looks like it improved on paper- not always, but usually. Yes, the winter moves are not over. I'm not broken up over losing Sale, Dugo and Urias. (I expected the last two might happen.) Losing JT and Duvall is pretty significant, and maybe O'Neill and Grissom can make up for that (or upticks from more players than not.) Losing Sale and Paxton may seem like a plus, but their GS'd ranked 4th and 5th and 39 GS is almost 1/4th the total. Giolito is known for starting 30+ games a year, so that comes close to matching the 39 GS lost and 199 IP, too. The rest of the players lost look to be addition by subtraction, and our depth looks good enough, so we can expect improving on their numbers. About 200 PAs by Urias and Tapia at .700. About 650+ PAs of sub .640 OPS by the others lost, combined. Kluber, Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Brasier and others combined for a putrid 150+ IP. Hopefully, we see just 0-5 IP from the likes of Jacques, but there is no guarantee Campbell, Criswell, Mata, Slaten, and others do better. How well will Schreiber and Bernardino do? Were they just "flashes?" Hell, soxprospects has Wink starting in AAA, so that is a sign our pitching depth is pretty good, but again, to me it looks a lot like we are repeating the quantity over quality plan, over and over, with the same results. Maybe as spring approaches my optimism will return, but I think I'll need a big boost or two with some significant additions by then.

I'm thinking we have less than 1% chance at landing Snell. Less than 25% at landing Monty. Less than 40% at Imanaga or Stroman. If you add all these up, maybe we have a 50% or better at landing one of these 4. Then, maybe 50% at landing Teoscar or Duvall. Maybe less that 50% at adding another SP'er, assuming we get a top 4, like Paxton or Ryu. I might be overly generous with these numbers.

Me, too, and there is still time to make some additions, maybe some quite significant ones. So far: Lost: Turner (626/.800) Dugo (602/.745) Duvall (353/.834) Urias (109/.698) Sale (103 IP/4.30 ERA) Paxton (96 IP/4.50 ERA) Kike (323 PAs/.599 OPS) Arroyo (206/.638) Chang (112/.552) Tapia (97/.701) Mondesi (None) Kluber (55 IP/7.04 ERA) Brasier (21/7.29) Bleier (31/5.28) plus a bunch of minor leaguers who saw some ML time. Additions: Giolito O'Neill Campbell Slaten Fitts M Castillo C Criswell Weissert plus some minor leaguers who may get MLB time (Olivares, Benitez, R Perez, M Contreras, J Westbrook and more...) This is not the overhaul I'd hoped for, but maybe more is to come, shortly.

Who is Juan Soto? LOL.

Yea, that was kinda bogus mentioning TOR might add some, later, but I did mention they "lost the most," so maybe they might be faves for 5th place, right now- or co-faves.

Thus spoke MLBTR... Six teams in on Ryan Brasier. Why can't we ever be in on studs like him?

I'm not sure what "not losing last place" means. It kinda sounds like winning last place. It does seem very much like the Sox are favored to "not lose" last place. We have not replaced JT or Duvall. O'Neill for Dugo is close to a push. Grissom looks to be a plus, and some kids stepping up their game should probably happen, but Giolito did not come close to fixing our rotation, and is a big question, himself. I realize other teams lost players and have not equaled their losses with additions, but... BAL has so many really good young players, with more coming up, soon, and some are nearing their prime years. TBR never goes away. They can lose really big players and never seem to miss a beat. NYY gets Rodon back. It's like they just signed him. TOR seems to have lost the most, but I think they have money to spend and will add Snell, Monty or Imanaga plus maybe more. Maybe, someday I will flip a switch towards optimism, but that day seems far away. [/b.]

It's all part of the great sham. Try to do just enough to fool the fans into thinking you are trying to win. Another one year deal based on hopes of a bounceback. Sound familiar?

It does seem that way, despite all these statements like, "We need to trim salary first, then...[we will make you an offer.]" The Sox might be one reason the best pitchers remaining have not signed, yet. They are waiting for Jansen or Yoshi to be traded. Then, I woke up.

No, and that is likely a very rare case. I do think he'll do better, but not great like Godzilla great.

Certainly, Yoshida is not held in high regard by most Sox fans. Jansen has 1 year left on a team in rebuild mode. Maybe we can get more for him, now, than at the deadline. I agree, Brez has shown he much more bolder than Bloom, and he seems to be quickly trying to make a mark on this team. If he does trade these two, one could look at the list of top 4 trades and say, those were the guys who needed to go, or did not fit into the Brez type team. Yoshida Jansen Verdugo Urias I'm really not torn up, if all 4 go, but I'd like to see some nice returns and or replacements on the roster (and budget.)

Agreed, and I was careful not to say "firesale." I can't believe anything they say, so this talk about "freeing up budget space for a SP" could all be a further sham. It could be as simple as they have lost total faith in Yoshida (and maybe their own scouts who gushed over him, too.) I can see trading Jansen, who has one year left and is aging. It would not upset me, if we did actually use Yoshida's money to add a very good SP'er, but I'll believe it when I see it. BTV accepts: Yoshida & Jansen (+$10M cash) to LAD for Michael Grove (LH RP w 6 years of control)

MLBTR reporting the Sox have been taking calls on Yoshida and Jansen. What a dumb time to finally decide to sell- off. At almost any point in the last 3 years would have been better.

But, haven't you heard? IP and GS are most important, and Cease had more of both than ironman Gio. in the last 3 years. (IMO, the CWS will get a prospect equal to one of our top 3 or even more.)

I said that 2 posts ago.

I do think he'll do better, but I can't see him doing that great.

Do the Mariners lead the bigs in significant trades over the last few years, or what?

I agree, even though I think Yoshida will improve, next year, especially if he DHs more than 60% of the time. What a mess, this team has become. We look to be deciding to have a sell off, just when we have the worst sell-off players on the roster. Story and Yoshida? Pivetta and Jansen? If this was the plan, all along, we should have sold off 1, 2 or 3 years ago, and been years ahead of the curve.

Maybe the Padres would want yet another SS (Story,) but damn, they are looking to cut salary, too.

When compared to his pay, probably yes. 1.6 bWAR is not horrific. (0.6 fWAR is bad. They say he was worth $5.1M in 2023.) Out of 133 qualifying batters, Yoshida placed: T 50th OBP (.338) 64th in SLG (.445) 63rd in OPS (.783) His D killed him. Some slight improvement on O and 90% Dh'ing could change his value, significantly. On AUG 7th 2023, he had the 25th best OPS in MLB. (84th best fWAR at 1.4)

I was thinking prospect pitcher development. Add Springs to your list.