moonslav59

I like Shaw a lot and suggested several trade combos, last winter. I think he will be a much better hitter than his first 550 PAs have shown. I just worry about counting on more speculative value rather than proven value.

Matt Shaw turns 25 this November and has a 100 OPS+ to start his career (550 PAs) That sure beats.... 88 OPS+ from Durbin at age 26 and 728 career PAs 76 OPS+ from Mayer at age 23.5 and 336 PAs. We'd need to see vast improvement for Shaw to be called even a "good" hitter. Do we really need more speculative value added?

That seems an easier path. Abrams at SS or Torres at 2B could help, if no great bat DH can be added. Who are you thinking of as that DH? This assumes we will be buyers: would even Abrams and ______ (DH/LF) be enough?

Could be, but who knows. It's hard for any GM to make up for all the players lost and aging stars with big contracts to rebuild when spending less and less each winter. Maybe deadline moves could have swung some seasons, but the "new GM" would have had to have great winters, year after year. Hard to do on peanuts.

Is Murphy out for all of 2026? BTV has this: Story -39.5 (owed $44.2M) Murphy -18.7 (owed $38.5M) Adding $19.3 Narvaez would about even it up for BTV. We'd "save" almost $6M. Maybe ATL would ask for $5-10M. If we did that, maybe we'd swap out Duran for Narvaez, and that would save us on Duran's future arb costs.

Have they ever agreed to not counting a season as a contractual year?

One of the most memorable and quick Sox declines was Jim Rice. While he dropped sharply from .911 (141 OPS+) to .791 (112 OPS) from ages 30 to 31, he had an uptick to a 123 OPS+ at age 32 and 137 at age 33. Then the walls caved in: Age 34: 101 OPS+ Age 35: 102 OPS+ Age 36: 70 OPS+ in 56 games Retirement. I'm sure there are worse than this, but this struck me as a quick and steep decline.

It's nice to see a few DSL and FCL players off to good and great starts.

Yes, and we knew that. We also knew there would be decline around age 34-35. How much he declines could alter our final viewpoint. I think we all still wish we'd kept him. My point has always been that if JH had kept the same budgets, I doubt we'd have been much better off.

I think counting on Rafaela, Contreras & Abreu is about the only 3 we can have enough trust in. I really like Anthony, but he needs to have a full season to gain my trust. I'd be okay with Mayer-Durbin for 3B or 2B, but counting on both is too scary for me. (They could maybe platoon.) I'm pretty sure Brez & Co is counting on Anthony, Mayer and Durbin as 2027 FT'ers. We need to not count on Duran, Story and Yoshida. Our catching tandem cannot be counted on as being a net plus in 2027. That leaves 2 infield slots, LF/DH and C as open for additions. That's 4 slots on the everyday side with the pen needing reliable additions as well. C: _______ (Narvaez/Wong/Gasper as #2) 1B Contreras (Romy) Count one in parenthesis as a starter/platoon slot filled: 2B (Romy) _______ Romy SS (Mayer) _______ Mayer 3B (Durbin)_______ Durbin LF/DH Anthony (Duran as 4th OF'er) CF Rafaela RF Abreu DH/LF ______ (Yoshida/Duran) The rotation has to be counted on as needing no 2027 additions, since there is no way JH & Co spend to fill all the everyday slots and add a quality SP'er. (I doubt Gray comes back on mutual option.) Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Early and one from Houck, Crawford, Bennett, Oviedo, Bello or Eyanson Pen: Chapman, Whitlock, _____, ______, ______, Slaten, (SP converted), one from Weissert, Moran, Watson, Kelly, Samaniego or a converted SP like Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Bennett or Holobetz. Needing 3-4 everyday players and 2-3 key pen pieces is probably too much to ask for, and this assumes we don't trade Chapman or any players controlled into 2027.

Good point. We could use a 2025 Betts, this year, and the 150 games played was his second most since 2017. He still was not vintage Betts, however.

While we can and should blame the "off season," I have to think the 3 major additions were the best 3 off season moves we've made in a very long time. To me, the foundation turned out to be weaker than many of us thought it was. That goes back to past off seasons and even into the Bloom era.

I seriously doubt this management teams decides to start a total rebuild process. I think they trust a sizeable core of the current roster (26 and 40 man as well as the farm) to get us to a better place. That trust MAY end up being the downfall of this think tank. Many here seem to think the word "may" is poorly chosen, or they think the core or "foundation" is too few in numbers and or lacks true star power. Almost every MLB has some sort of question mark, but clearly other teams have more top quality players than we do. When it comes to "promising players" and prospects, we might be near or above many teams, but hope should never be the main strategy. I see our core for at least the next 3 years as being: Crochet, Suarez & Contreras (despite being 34.) Tolle, Abreu and Rafaela have yet to prove they have true complete star abilities. So, maybe we have 5-6 true "foundational" players. That is woefully short, unless the team has way more next level good players to make up for the lack of star power. Our "next level" has some promise, but few have shown top results for a sustained time, so far. Anthony has the most promise with Early pretty close. Whitlock has shown he can be an excellent set-up man. Slaten has a ways to go. Romy has not proven he can play FT. Houck and Crawford do not have 3 years of control. Duran looks like he is in decline and has just 2 arbs left. Bello and Casas might be toast. Mayer and KC have lost much speculative value. Durbin might be a decent player, but not someone who is clearly better than most team's 3B/1Bman. The farm still has some hopes and prayers, but many are 1.5 to 2.5 years away. Arias is 20 and in AA (soxprospects says his ETA is early '27, but we can't expect greatness or even plus play out of the gate.) Eyanson (21 and AA) might be the best farm hope for near immediate help. Witherspoon (21 and A+) is still working on refining various pitches. Bennett (25 and AAA/MLB) is ML ready but still questionable aon hos much of a plus he can be. The following A+ players have some serious upside, but may not be a help until 2028 or 2029: Gonzales 19, Godbout 22, Azocar 19 & Valera 20. Phillips, Holobetz & Cespedes are too much of longshot material. Soto, Delzine and Primera are all beyond 3 years away.

So far Contreras has been a nice "slugger" and plays plus defense, but I agree. I think the vast majority felt we came up short on adding big bats, last winter. Berny Ortiz is too far away! (LOL)

The Romy injury might be more impactful than we imagine, but I don't think his and the injuries you mentioned are much more than the average injury totals in MLB.

It does right now, for sure, despite the success of his 3 major additions, last winter: Contreras, Gray & Suarez, plus the mid season extension to Chapman.

We all knew the back end of his 10+/12 year could get scary. His deal began in 2021, so he's really had just 4 good years in the deal (21-24.) In those 4 good years the Dodgers won rings, and Betts averages 133 games a year- missing an average or 23% of all possible games. His OPS was .899 (145 OPS+) While .873 in a very nice OPS, he only topped that once in those 4 years- that doozy of a 2023 season at .987 -2nd in MVP voting) While he might resurge, 2025 was not a great year, either: .732 OPS (102 OPS+) 2025-2026: .714 (99 OPS+) in 199 games. He turns 34 in October. He is owed... $25M at age 34 30 at 35 30 at 36 30 at 37 27.5 at 38 and 39 (2032) $115M of deferred money will be paid from 2033 to 2044. That's $285M still owed- almost what we reportedly offered him ($300M/10.) Many use the rings as the main guide of success, and I have myself used this. Years from now, the deal may look rather "meh." One thing is for sure, the return of Verdugo, who turned into Weissert & Fitts, Wong & Downs gave us very little. One could argue Fitts was a main part of the Sonny Gray trade, but that gets rather complex. I wish we had kept Betts, but he'd be no savior for this season.

Some OPS numbers of players mentioned over the winter... .973 Kurtz .972 Wood .965 Willson .962 A Vaughn .949 Jeffers .938 Murakami .930 Schwarber .915 Yandy Diaz .903 Max Muncy LAD .894 CJ Abrams .881 Rushing .844 N Lowe .839 Donovan .837 B Lowe .808 Alonso .800 Kody Clemens .794 G Torres .791 O'Hearn .787 Arraez .785 Teoscar .761 Okamoto .753 Neto .752 Meidroth & Willi Castro .750 KMarte .735 V Grissom .725 Paredes .718 Chisholm .709 Tucker .706 Devers & M Andujar .699 Hoskins .697 M Shaw .692 Willy Adames .690 Bregman .687 J Naylor .684 T Gray .680 R Lewis .674 Stott .658 Bogaerts .657 Seager .656 Hoerner .652 J Bell .646 Bichette .641 Betts .636 E Suarez .635 DHam .634 Vaz .626 Baty & Bohm .606 Realmuto .601 Yanner Diaz .598 T Turner .596 Swanson .574 Ozuna .566 O"Neil .534 Rengifo .532 Polanco .472 JGarcia (37 PAs) .462 Refsnyder (99)

MLB.com Injury Report Crochet: [He] said on June 12 he is "getting close" to throwing, something he hasn't been able to do since suffering a low-grade left lat strain on May 28. Anthony: Expects to have imaging soon to determine how much his injury has healed in the last six weeks. He will resume swinging once the pain lessens. Romy: Expected to start a Minor League rehab assignment on June 12. Sandoval: Made second Minors rehab start on June 11, pitching 1 2/3 innings as he continues his build-up to a starter's workload Sogard: Expected to resume swinging the week of June 15. Oviedo: Started a throwing program in mid-June, but isn't close to a return. Crawford: Continues to have right forearm tightness. Casas: Is in the early stages of a hitting program, but not close to a return. Story: Given the projected 8-to-12 week timetable to return following his May 21 surgery, Story won't be eligible to be activated until just after the All-Star break. Houck: Making 75 throws out to 105 feet three days a week, and 30 throws at 60 feet three days a week while throwing changeups those days. Targeting mound work in late June.

If we sell, these have to be some players we shop: EST $$$ owed at deadline(1/3 of 2026) $7M Gray (mutual option on 2027) $4M Chapman (with $13M mutual option for '27) $4M Sandoval (Any takers? LMAO) $3M Duran (2 more arbs) $2M IKF $400K Wong (2 more arbs) $300K Coulombe ___________________ The DUMPS (Lucky to find a trade partner) $38M Story '26-'27 (including $5M buyout for '28) $24M Yoshida '26-'27 ____________________ Hmmm.... $59M KC '26-32 w 2 option years ($4M buyout '33) $48M Bello '26-'28 + $1M buyout for '30 $3M Whitlock ($8.25M option for '27 & $10.5 for '28)

With #1 Tolle and #3 Early graduating (and #30 Watson), many prospects rose up by attrition, but some jumped more than 2 slots. 6>2 Eyanson 10>4 Bennett 11>6 Godbout 15>7 Azocar 23>11 Delzine 36>13 Primera 34>14 Cespedes 32>15 Rivera 29>24 G Rodriguez 31>25 Heyman 38>27 M White 35>28 Finley The tumblers: 5>8 Valera 12>19 Romero 13>16 Uberstine 16>30 Castro 17>23 Ramos 22>52 Taylor 26>29 Silvero 28>39 Ziehl _________________ The lower 30 movers 60>31 D Brown 53>33 Brannon 51>34 Jo Garcia 55>35 YRod NR>37 Andujar NR>40 Winnay 54>45 McShane NR>48 Mayers, NR>49 Berny Ortiz, NR>50 amboa Tumblers: 33>43 Bleis 43>53 Guzman

Big shake-up on soxprospects.com's rankings, since I got back. https://www.soxprospects.com/index.html Some stats... OPS Leaders (150+ PAs) 1.007 Brannon AA .977 Arias AA .941 M White A+ .927 Jo Garcia AA .902 Godbout A+A+ 50-149 PAs 1.180 Ro Hernandez A+ 1.083 Jo Rodriguez CPX .896 Mussett A .860 Brito CPX ______________ FIP (20+ IP) 2.34 Ingrassia 2.63 Brown 2.96 Eyanson 3.03 Delzine & Bennett 3.11 Berrios 3.25 Bastardo 3.24 Rivera 3.35 B Morgan

I'm probably lucky to miss the last 2 weeks of chat and watching the games. For the first time in forever, I won't go back and watch the games, It seems pointless. This season is so discouraging and depressing. There have been some good performances here and there, and a few players are doing well, but what a horrible meltdown this team has had, so far. I'm not throwing in the towel, but there is no reason to expect a turn-around. If the deadline were today, I'd trade every 1 year guys and also Duran and 2-3 year players who seem to not fit into the future. I'm not for a total rebuild and a 5 year plan. I'd look for ML players or near ML prospects in return. This is hard to watch. I saw the game last night in the plane to Houston. Hard to stomach.