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Everything posted by moonslav59
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The one guy in MLB with less power than Masa. -
Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread
moonslav59 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's deals like this that make me think Masa is not worth nothing. -
Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread
moonslav59 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Arraez $12M/1 w SFG. Will play 2B. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Just say no to Arraez, Even if he agrees to play anywhere. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You can't even fathom one benefit from Devers playing 1B after Casas got hurt? That's bizarre. SFG played him at 1B because he fit there better than 3B, since they had a 3Bman and a DH. For us, Mayer at 3B and Devers at 1B made some sense. It made sense to Brez, but he knows way less than you, I guess. A player undermines his boss in public, but you see less than 1% blame for that. Again, bizarre. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Nope. 99% Brez. Back to disagreeing with Ole Red. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Well, it sounds like you are predicting coming up short and have already decided we will fail. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Okay, my bad: you said "just about everything," except making excuses, and that sounds like everything done on paper, to me. Breslow is incompetent at just about everything besides making excuses. He’s a master at that. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm not sure Brez ever asked Cora to talk to Devers, so I won't place any blame on Cora, unless and until that becomes known. I do think it's odd that if Cora knew his boss wanted Devers to play 1B and did not want to ask or see the need to ask, something is askew between their relationship. Who is to blame for that? It's hard to know. It would not be the first time a manager disagreed with what the GM wanted him to do with the players given to him. I only said that if Brez asked Cora to talk to Devers and he would not, then maybe I'd put some blame on Cora, too. Maybe. Maybe Devers says no to Cora, and nothing changes- he's still gone. Maybe Devers respects Cora enough that he agrees to do what seems to me to be what's best for the team, and he's still here. Maybe. I'm not sure who is most to blame, but it does appear to be mostly on Brez, from what I know and opine. -
Red Sox sign Ranger Suarez. 5 years $130 Million
moonslav59 replied to Jasonbay44's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Signing E Suarez or trading for Paredes will likely have to mean finding a way to cut some salaries. Including Bello, Sandoval or Duran in a trade for Paredes keeps us under line 3. Signing Suarez to over $19M AAV would likely mean we have to trade 2 from that list or find cuts elsewhere. I admit my talk of dumping Masa and or Hicks is far-fetched and even combined may not save $8-9M in AAV, as we will need to pay much of it. There is some variances on how much bellow line 3 we are, but maybe it's just $4M, and that is probably needed to pay for bonuses or deadline additions. It might be safe to say any additions we make going forward has to be offset by equal salary done away with. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's a close call between Duran and Abreu, and I did not come to my opinion lightly. I like the extra year Abreu has and his age (2 years younger.) Abreu costs less. Abreu is a GG RF'er- a very difficult position to play in Fenway and on the road. Duran is okay in LF and CF but may play more DH in 2026 than many want to believe. To me his value as a DH (vs Masa/Romy/Casas/Campbell) is less than his value as an OF'er to us and every other MLB team. Duran has been a better batter than Abreu, but Abreu passed him in OPS last year. You speak of 30 HRs, but the 2025 ISO numbers were Abreu .223 (best among returning Sox players) and .185 from Duran (barely ahead of Narvaez, Romy & others.) Duran's speed is a game-changer and is hard to place a value on. He blows Abreu away on this. OPS+ Duran: 69 at ages 24-25 121 at 26 132 at 27 114 at 28 (This does not suggest a decline is in place, but is concerning) Abreu: 120 at ages 24-25 116 at age 26 (less than Duran at 26 but more than Duran at 28) It's hard to project who will better, but Abreu has more power and plays better defense. That should continue. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Much of that is still speculative (or suspect as one poster would call it,) but on paper he has made massive overhauls and upgrades from top to bottom on pitching. The everyday players were largely handed to him by Bloom & even DD. His biggest add was Breggie, and now he's gone (O'Neil too). His biggest lasting additions are Narvaez & Contreras. He lost Devers and others. Considering the graduations of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Narvaez and others under Brez, having a pretty highly ranked farm is another good thing. Part of that is captured by the pitching upgrade as being the "best." -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
From what I know, if I had to assign blame on the Devers fiasco & departure, I'd probably put Brez first, but I also think Devers should have moved to 1B w/o public comments. If it's true that Cora refused to even ask Devers to move to 1B, when his boss wanted that to happen, I think that is unsettling, at best and worthy of some blame at worst. 99%, no. Maybe over 50%, yes. I am a bit relieved to see we have spent more than the 2025 budget, but the power gap remains. That's on Brez, because we see he had the budget to spend more on batting than pitching and chose not to do that. That being said, teams can win with different roster constructions, and maybe the pitching will carry us to glory, or the batting will do better than we expected. The winter is not over, yet, either. -
Red Sox sign Ranger Suarez. 5 years $130 Million
moonslav59 replied to Jasonbay44's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Maybe it was understood that when we signed Suarez, Brez was expected to dump some salary (like one from Bello, Sandoval or Duran- all about $8-9M AAV.) Maybe the dumps are not to pay for Suarez, but to help pay for E Suarez or adding the $9M cost of Paredes. That third tax line might be set in stone. Like it or not. -
Red Sox sign Ranger Suarez. 5 years $130 Million
moonslav59 replied to Jasonbay44's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We'd likely be looking to trade shorter term players like Sandoval, Gray or two year guys like Chapman & Whitlock. 3 year guys like Duran would likely be next. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
1. He's not done. 2, Tied for 7th on projected total fWAR is subjectively competitive or not. We are 1.1 away from 6th, 1.6 away from 5th and 1.8 from 4th. One could argue that's close enough to call competitive. 3. Adding a 2.4 Paredes or the like would move us to 4th or 5th, assuming the teams ahead of us don't make major additions, too. While I do share your view that we should have improved by more, the winter is not over. If we stop now, or other teams just ahead of us add more than us, I will not be happy, but I won't say "everything" he has done is bad. I understand that might have been hyperbole, since you have admitted some moves are good and have been good. I wish we had gotten Alonso, Schwarber of KMarte, even if it meant one less pitcher or even no Gray & Contreras, maybe, as long as the leftover money was uses on a RP'er or two, or an upgrade somewhere else. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
2.5 years in and these are the Brez additions: Crochet, Ranger, Sony, Oviedo, Sandoval Chapman, Slaten, Weissert, Harrison, Watson, Moran, Hicks Contreras, Narvaez, Romy, Eaton Early, Witherspoon, Bennett, Sandlin, Phillips, Eyanson, Holobetz, Samaniego, Delzine & others J Gonzales, Godbout, Soto, Azocar, Ramos, Rivas, Cason, Guzman, Heyman, Primera, Silverio & others Others he added but are now gone: Bregman, Giolito, O"Neil, Buehler, Wilson, Grissom, Criswell and others -
Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread
moonslav59 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We are logjammed at DH & OF. Unless we play Rafaela at 2B, Masa only plays if an OF'er sits, and since 3 of our 4 OF'ers are LHB, it's not complicated. It would be better to offload Masa over Hicks (with Duran) even if we paid enough money to even it with Hicks. The flex we give Cora is a big plus: DH: Vientos/Casas/Romy/Campbell 3B: Baty/Vientos/Mayer/Eaton 2B: Mayer-Romy/ Baty/DHam 1B: Contreras/Vientos.Casas Yes, we lose OF depth, but we still have Campbell to play LF. (If we trade Hicks not Masa, we'd have Masa as LF depth.) -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So, 78 to 81 to 89 wins was just blind luck by an incompetent GM? "just about everything" is a phrase I fully disagree with. He refocused the pitching from the farm, to 40 man and 26 man rosters. He has extended our best young players beyond their last arb year like no other Sox GM, thereby lessening the chances we lose our stars to free agency- something that has been a huge thorn in our side since DD's departure. He has made several unquestionable good trades and signings/extensions that automatically brings into question your "everything" statement all by itself. He's made mistakes- some big ones. He's not a good communicator. He's at worst, partially responsible for the Devers fiasco and ultimate trade. The Sale trade might have made some sense, at the time, but backfired on both ends in spectacular fashion. The Priester trade looked bad, last year but is still TBD. The Buehler signing was bad and twice the cost of Kluber or Richards. There are some lesser deals that were bad or look bad, so far, but there have been many good to great deals and signings and extensions. Not everything has been bad, and we have clearly improved. -
Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread
moonslav59 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I see Vientos as close to even with Masa but with more power. I see power as the bigger need. I do prefer a RHB Masa vs a LHB Masa, in theory. I think Baty + Vientos > Duran + Masa, since Duran and Masa are both our DH's. We fill an open position and replace out two DHs with one, and yes he's a RHB. (We still have LHB Casas to DH, if needed.) -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Who are you arguing with? I keep saying I agree he should spend more. I point out he's spent $50M more than 2024, but that is not enough, since he had cut so much from 2019, that context is needed. However, do you really think a top 6 spending team can never have a significant hope of winning a ring, especially a team with several lower paid pre-arb and arb players? A team with several young players locked up for many years at what will eventually be below market costs. (Right now, for example, K Campbell's $7.5M looks like an underwater deal.) -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
My whole point of the trade is that it frees up the money that might be currently keeping us from signing E Suarez, now. There were reports we have talked to ESuarez's agents. We might also be waiting for the Suarez price to drop. We may be waiting on a trade to reach a yes point before pivoting to Suarez. Suarez has not signed elsewhere, either, so we have no way of knowing if we are the front-runner or not- or a top 2-3 frontrunner. I'm not as high in ESuarez as I was earlier in the winter. He glove sucks and we added a 1Bman. We have 4 -5 DHs, now. Trading Duran takes away our best DH option, so that dynamic changes because of the trade. The budget relief from adding Masa or Hicks allows for a significant addition, whether it's ESuarez or some higher priced trade target. Maybe it allows us to trade for Paredes and sign a RP'er or two. There is merit to the idea of trading Duran plus Hicks/Masa to allow us to add 2 key pieces. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd only do it if the $10.3M AAV for Hicks plus the $7.7M saved on Duran allow us to add someone like E Suarez. Duran & Hicks <<< Baty & Suarez (with the $21M saved) I do think Duran is better than Baty, but I see Duran as our 2026 DH or mostly at DH. His OPS maybe be marginally better than Masa/Romy/Casas/Campbell. The gain we see from Baty vs DHam/Romy is larger than the loss from Duran vs Masa & Co, Now, if you want to say Masa=Suarez, then okay. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Does that show budget vs revenue? (It would have to be projected 2026 revenue, too.) I applied this year's budget to last year's revenue and it bumped us up a few slots, but I'm not sure how accurate that methodology is. I'm not sure how many teams have jumped their spending by $26M. My guess is our ranking from 2024 to 2026 will improve but still be under #16. I'm not sure being near the middle of the pack is something to get irate about. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That all makes sense, but we are projected at 23rd in everyday player fWAR, which includes defense. While I don't put total faith in fWAR nor projected anything, it is so low that even if they said 15th, I'd be worried our offense is worse than 2025 and maybe even below average. fangraphs has our batting projected to be ranked 16th, as far as I can tell. If we added a Paredes or even Donovan, we'd likely be above average, but maybe not top 10. Last year our offense was ranked 11th with out OPS at #9. We were 7th in Runs but the home field advantage needs to be factored in. That being said, we were 6th in road runs and 8th in runs scored at home.

