Maxbialystock

I've only watched a few spring training games but have been lucky and seen most of the key guys--especially Sandoval. He still looks heavy to me but is clearly lighter. More than that, yesterday (or Saturday) I saw him start a DP from well behind the bag at 3B with a perfect throw to Pedroia. Plus he is hitting and seems reasonably mobile. If he can keep his weight down and keep playing this way, I think he is the answer at 3B.

Excuse me, but didn't Benintendi actually play 34 games in LF last year and wasn't his WAR .7? Is fangraphs predicting he will have trouble with the curve or something? 1.7 seems low.

Interesting.

You know of course that Lou Boudreau created to a shift against Ted Williams, who was very much a pull hitter. He didn't bunt, but did tinker with hitting to LF. I think in the end he pretty much stayed with pulling the ball and relying on line drives finding holes in the defense. I think today's shifts are probably better designed and based on real hitting patterns, so the bunt the possible fix.

Very sensible, but how do the Sox manage three catchers? My memory of last year is that Swihart had the job at the end of spring training and promptly lost it within 30 days of the regular season beginning, largely because the pitchers didn't like him. And that's why, completely out of the blue, they moved him to LF. It looks to me--as superficial as I no doubt am--as though we have one catcher who can hit, and two who can field and call games, but no one who can do both. Am i wrong?

Agree with the naysayers. WBC is a joke.

Anyone who says DH is the issue has got a point because Ortiz is irreplaceable. You can't count H.Ramirez as the replacement because his bat was in the lineup last year. Me, I count Moreland as Ortiz's replacement, clearly a step down. However, I think Benintendi's left bat will mitigate the loss of Ortiz. So I went with the bullpen as the biggest concern. Last year it wasn't much good until September. Our returning closer is somewhat erratic. We lost some others who were pretty good last September/October.

VFW = Veterans of Foreign Wars.

Why no mention of CERA in all these catcher comparisons?

Now it's official. The home team lost 6 of this year's 7 WS games. More to the point, Cleveland swept the Sox in the ALDS for the simple reason they were better.

I seem to recall somewhere on this thread a huge outcry over the absolute importance of home field advantage, that Farrell should have made a better effort to get it against Cleveland, and that not having it is the real reason why we lost 3 straight in the ALDS to the Guardians. So far in the WS, out of 6 games, the home team has won once. If the Cubs win it all tonight, it will be 1 game out of 7 won by the home team. My take on the Sox in the ALDS is that Porcello and Price simply weren't up to the task. They were awful. End of story.

I love it. You are no doubt right.

I think it's worth a thread even though he's only had 1 year. But reportedly he likes to make things happen right away. I give him credit for: not sending Sandoval or Ramirez elsewhere while paying for part of their salaries; getting Price even though Price absolutely did not live up to his rep or salary in 2016; getting Kimbrel even though Kimbrel clearly has control issues (partial blame on the pitching coach); acquiring Ziegler, who proved useful; getting Young as a platoon outfielder who overall worked out well; only getting rid of one prospect, Espinosa, albeit a great pitching prospect; not firing Farrell this year, but also not giving him a long-term contract. What I blame him for: getting Price, who is more price than performance and by a good margin; dumping Espinosa to get a so-so Pomeranz; not going after Miller or chapman when Cash had the fire sale.

How quickly folks forget all the bullpen moves Farrell made in September once he got some decent arms. Then, presto magico, Kimbrel took a dive, actually several dives, and of course Farrell got the blame. Let's not forget too that in game 1 of the ALDS Porcello gave up 5 runs in 2 or 3 innings, then Price in game 2 gave up 6 runs in 2 or 3 innings. Porcello and Price took the Sox bullpen (and the manager) out of the equation. I agree managers can make a difference when they have a really good bullpen as both Francona and Maddon have, but let us not forget the role of the GM's involved. The Yankees Cashman dumped both relievers, Chapman and Miller, the pundits are now raving about. The recipients of this largesse were the Cubs GM Theo and the Guardians GM. They correctly figured out that you can't have too many great arms in the bullpen. Where the two managers have sort of broken precedent is in bringing those great arms into the games relatively early and relatively often. The simple rule now seems to be: once you get a lead, hang onto it for dear life. This mostly applies, however, to the postseason. During the regular season you need those starterers eating innings.

I think it's really hard to count Cleveland out when the Series is at 1-1. I also think the cold weather will be a factor, but have no idea which way that will go. On paper, the Cubbies are clearly better, but you gotta play the games. In 1954 the Guardians had a great pitching staff, solid hitting, and I think set the 154 game AL record for most wins, but they lost 4 straight to the Giants.

Well said, top to bottom. I personally am biased against an ace--too risky. Plus, as you say, we have 6 starters. I love the phrase, "three glaring needs" and agree with all three. At the same time, however, you provide a partial answer to 3B with 6 names and do the same with the DH issue. So let me add one new thing. I think it's foolish to try to get a big bat to replace Ortiz because he quite clearly is irreplaceable so we shouldn't even try. Nobody else in the entire AL came close to doing what Ortiz did in 2016. Instead, try to improve the rest of the lineup, especially the bottom third, which seemed to headed south in the final month or so of this season. I think the first six in next year's lineup will include Betts, Bogaerts, Pedroia, HanRam, DH combo, and Benintendi. That leaves CF, 3B, and C. I would probably stay with JBJ in CF and Leon/Vazquez at C, which gets us back to 3B. Even there, as you say, there are options. One further thought on the lineup for 2017. This year with Ortiz the Sox scored 100 more runs than the 2d best (Cleveland) lineup in the AL. So lop off 75 of the runs, the cost of going with an ordinary mortal (Pablo/Young, whoever) as the DH, and you still have a very good offense. You also make a good case for our rotation in the 2d half of 2016--it looks promising for 2017. So maybe the real "glaring need" is, quite simply, the bullpen. When they were great in September, so were the Sox--best September in MLB this year and best Sox September in a long time.

I'm the presumptive great defender of John Farrell and have no problem with Oldtimer's insistence that Farrell is partly responsible for losing 8 of the final 9 games, including all three ALDS games against Cleveland. However, in the same breath we also have to blame Farrell for the best September in MLB this year and the best the Sox have had in a long time and how that month got the Sox to 93 wins and the ALE title in what was the toughest of the six MLB divisions. I would also point out that 7 of those 9 games were close--2 run margin or less--and that 4 of the 5 final losses were by 1 run, so it wasn't as though the Sox rolled over the way they did in 2011. I myself have complained about Farrell on this thread. But, oldtimer is being completely onesided if not blind if he doesn't recognize that Farrell had to have done some good things as manager this year, which is why he will be back next year.

Probably because the Sox actually got to the postseason this year, I'm somewhat interested in the current series. To me the ALCS and NLCS both confirm the primacy of pitching--especially game 2 of the NLCS when Kershaw shut down the Cubs 1-0. In 3 games the Jays have scored 1, 0, and 2 runs, and that third game includes having to pull the Guardians starter in the first inning. Youk has a point about game 4 of the ALCS, but I still see Cleveland going to the WS. They are getting great pitching and just enough hitting. As for the NLCS, I think the Cubs take it, but I am rooting for the Dodgers.

Since this HFA discussion is ultimately about Farrell, these thoughts 1. Yes, HFA is advantageous. No one doubts that. However, so far in all postseason games it's about even-steven on home vs. visitor winning, plus someone said the long-term edge is 55-45 in favor of the home team--not a real big edge. Plus the Sox took 2 of 3 in Cleveland in the regular season, 4 of 6 overall and had almost the best road record in MLB. Yes, Cleveland did thrive at home this year, but not against the Sox. 2. The real issue is whether Farrell even cared about HFA. The critics say, "nope, he gave everyone off the final week when the Sox lost 5 of 6 after winning 11 in a row. Nobody cared, least of all Farrell, who only wanted to rest his guys, let Ortiz celebrate, etc." The critics are dead wrong. For one thing, the Sox didn't clinch until Sep 28, the second game of the final six, which Kimbrel lost by walking 4 guys. This was totally unexpected because the bullpen was terrific in September. But there is no way, no how a rationale can be made the Sox weren't trying that night. They lost, but they also won the ALE when Toronto lost. The next night was the one game of the final six when Farrell rested some guys and started Owens instead of whoever. Anyway, the Sox lost their 3d straight at Yankee Stadium. 3. The final series at Fenway was against the Jays who had everything to win/lose in that series. The evidence that Farrell also wanted to win is unassailable. Thus the Sox won the first game, 5-3, with Porcello on the mound. The Sox lost the next two, both very close, despite starting ERod and Price. Kimbrel, our $9M closer, gave up the winning run in the first game, and in the final game of the season, despite Price and using the regular lineup (as was true of the first two games), the Sox lost 2-1 when Ziegler gave up the winning run in the 8th. Some complain Price should have stayed in longer than 5 innings, but its doubtful he would have gone beyond the 7th. Moreover, carping keep forgetting that the Sox scored just 1 run in that game--the same number Price had given up. 4. That final week needs to be seen in context. In the final 1/3 (Aug-Oct) the Sox played 2/3 of their games on the road and had very few days off. Farrell could have justified giving the key players more than that one rest day (game 3 at Yankee stadium), but stayed with his regulars for the 5 of the final 6 games because, quite obviously, he wanted the HFA too. 5. Kimmi was one of the few who argued rest was the right thing for that final week. In retrospect, she may have been right. Farrell should have rested his guys more than he did. Chances are very good they were tired. 6. However, I think the real problem was that Porcello and Price simply weren't up to the postseason challenge.

Maybe he didn't for the same reason he sent Bradley--who was dead, dead, dead at the plate--for his final at bat. Players can surprise you.

Pomeranz stayed up in the zone throughout this inning. I never noticed before, but out there on the mound he looks like a great big baby.

Really? He was one heckuva lot better than Porcello and Price. We have a deep, rested, bullpen. 4 innings is enough.

I must be the only guy who is actually watching the game because what I have seen is a solid pitching effort by Tomlin of the Guardians. For one thing, I believe he has thrown a first pitch strike to almost every if not every Sox hitter. He has mixed his speeds and locations up, and he has hit a lot of corners.

Very dangerous situation here.

That, ladies and gents, is a pitcher out there on the mound for the Sox--not a thrower as both Porcello and Price are too inclined to be. He mixes up not only his pitches, but also locations, and is therefore hard to anticipate, whereas with both Price and Porcello most hitters can afford to sit on their fast balls or wait for a changeup or something to be left up in the strike zone. Neither of them could go 3 innings without give up 4 runs. Buchholz has now gone 3 and given up 0 runs. What a difference when a real pitcher is on the mound. Like most everyone else, I never thought I would say that this season.