Maxbialystock

Let's not forget that dinger was preceded by back to back doubles. tonight the Jay's are feasting on a carcass of a pitcher.

Sadly, the first was entirely predictable when it was clear Porcello was never going to throw anything low in the strike zone and rely almost solely on fast balls. The dinger was off a juicy curve just about dead center in the strike zone. More and more it seems to me Porcello took some kind of pledge to keep his pitches up regardless of the consequences.

Estrada's 4th start against us. As Kimmi says, in the first three games he was very effective. His September ERA is below 2, his best this season.

Farrell is no idiot. But I would be disingenuous if I did not admit that even I might have pulled Sale early on September 20 even though Sale absolutely did not want to come out. It may not have been necessary, but it would have been sensible. I'm not sure I buy the 41 pitches--28 would be more like it. Pull him after 6. Give Sale the extra shutout inning--a nice compromise.

Still no Betts. Four lefty and five righty bats against righty Estrada. Pedey in a slump. Bradley too. Davis not much. Moreland could be OK, but not HanRam.

Sale alternated good and bad starts earlier in the season as well. May was just as bad a month--also with 6 starts--as August, ERA of 4.24 vs. ERA 4.38. His two best months, with ERA's of 1.19 and 1.04 were April and July, and his two worst months were May and August. September was in the middle, ERA-wise. If you say Sale was wearing down in August, how do you explain May? Or, for that matter, how do you explain a better ERA in September than in August and that on September 9 and again on September 20 he pitched shut out ball? Also, how do you explain shutting down the Jays for 7 innings (with 11 K's and zero walks) on August 29 when he was in the middle of this 60 day decline?

OK, I think I know where the fire Farrell gang is coming from on this rest issue. On September 20, 2017, a day which will now live in infamy, Farrell failed to pull Sale after six innings and instead let him pitch 8 innings. Since Sale averaged about 14 pitches per inning that night, I think this boils down to 28 extra, needless, insane, ridiculous, thoughtless pitches. It made no difference Sale would have an extra day's rest before his next start at home against the Jays. Those 28 pitches clearly pushed Sale beyond his limit, and what we saw last night was a wreck, a pale imitation of the fireballing ace we had seen in the distant past--way back on September 20 when he struck out 13 over 8 scoreless innings. That Sale was now gone. Here's why I have a problem with that thesis. First and foremost, Sale still struck out 8 guys in 5 innings last night. Second his heater--the 97 mph and above version--was very much in evidence. He was also throwing changeups and sliders. However--and a small amount of this has to do with an ump who wasn't given him any corners--what I saw was that his breaking balls were up in the zone and therefore very hittable. In fact, one of Donaldson's dingers came off a slider and the other off a changeup, both up in the zone. All four dingers came off of pitches up in the zone, but not way up. In other words, just about right for a team facing Sale for the 4th time this season and with some pretty good bats. The most dingers by a MLB team so far this season is 232, and the Jays have 219. Then there is the fact that Sale has thrown just 502 pitches this month, easily the fewest in a month this season. Among those 5 starts he has actually pitched two shutout games, one for 8 innings and the other 6 innings. So, while I will give credit to moonslav, mvp78 and others for complaining during the September 20 game that Sale needed to be rested because the Sox had a big lead, I'm less sure than they that those 28 pitches pushed Sale over a cliff. I think it's just as reasonable to say he lacked command of his pitches last night and that the Jays were ready for those pitches up in the zone. Heck, back in July, by far his best month with an ERA of 1.04, he went 7 innings against the Rays and gave up 4 runs, including 2 dingers.

A fair point. Who does like to watch Porcello pitch? That said, at least he's a righty--the Jays just killed our two best lefties. Also Betts MRI says "no structural damage" to his wrist.

Pretty close to a must win from my perspective. If we lose and the yankees win, they are 2 back with 4 to go and we play the Astros for the final four games. The Yankees play Tampa tonight and again tomorrow, then 3 more at home vs. the Jays. I do not think Sale will be available on October 1, the last game. I would like to win the AL East and avoid the wild card game.

Koufax quit in 1966 at age 31 because he was diagnosed with traumatic arthritis in 1964 when he couldn't straighten his arm the day after pitching a shutout. The diagnosis was by the team physician, Dr Bob Kerlan. The next year, still fighting arthritic pain, he pitched his fourth no-hitter and the first perfect game by a lefty since 1880. He had 14 strikeouts. That same year, 1965, despite fighting arthritic pain, he was the WS MVP after pitching a shutout to clinch the Series. The next year, his last, he and Drysdale were holdouts for more money. That spring Dr Kerlan told him not to pitch another season, but he still pitched 323 innings, went 27-9, and had an ERA of 1.73. That became his last season in part because of the pain and in part because continuing to pitch could make his arm useless and even painful in his retirement. He certainly did not retire because he had no more great pitches or great games in him.

moonslav, et al, perhaps a few numbers might inform our thoughts about Sale's pitch count. These came from his game log on espn-- He has done about the same all year long on five days rest and on six days rest. Last time out he pitched an 8 inning gem on 5 days rest. This time he got killed with 4 dingers on 6 days rest. It's been like that all year. FWIW, he has started 13 games on 5 days rest for the season, which means 19 on 6 or more days rest. His monthly ERA highs and lows are: highest were 4.24 in May and 4.38 in August. Lows were April, 1.19, and July, 1.04. September is 3.72, between his 2 best and 2 worst months. His lowest monthly pitch count is 506 in September. Next lowest is 534 in April, then June with 548, then July with 574. All four months were with five starts each. His two worst ERA months, May and August, were also months in which he started 6 games and threw the most pitches, 655 and 611. His best three consecutive starts, all shutouts and averaging 7 innings per start, were this first three start after the ASG and on 9 days rest. By far the most dingers in a month came this month with 9. His average dingers/month for the first 5 months were 3 per month for a total of 15. He has 44 K's in 29 innings this month, about on a par with other months when he pitched more innings and had more K's.

I never said we are getting our money's worth. I just explained why it makes more sense to keep him than release him. He ain't Pablo.

9-4. Just about right for a debacle with our ace on the mound.

You know Porcello starts tomorrow, right? 10-17 Porcello?

A soupcon of hope in the bottom of the 8th and hitting for the cycle--dinger, triple, double, and single. Three runs even. Game still out of reach, but tomorrow's game might not already be lost even with Porcello starting.

I was right there with you--high as a kite, and ready to take on anyone in the ALDS.

Damn. All the more reason to hope I'm full of it.

Meh. We definitely missed Nunez big time, but he did not have him on that fantastic 8-1 road trip. Betts definitely a big loss. But that's it. Young did get the only double and only rbi. Beni and Devers looked awful but haven't been and certainly during that road trip. JBJ was lousy when we were winning and we still liked his defense, which helped us to win at least one game during that streak. Leon is in there to catch--that's the agreement. Marrero was/is needed for his defense and does have the righty bat vs. the lefty Happ, plus didn't he hit the ball hard a couple times? He certainly was a better choice at 2b than Holt or Pedey (who himself is in a slump among other issues).

Look, I don't like the guy one darn bit. But he's paid for and last year did very well. Apparently he has been hurt this year. So I think a bounce back in 2018 is entirely possible.

Clearly, I never took a course like that, but don't do half bad at that very thing when the situation calls for it. I love moonslav and Kimmi's optimism and definitely want them to be right and, in this case, me very wrong. Meanwhile, why not take a shot at my no doubt unfounded, even specious assessment. Shoot it down, please.

For me it's not boring. Really painful given the implications for the remaining 5 games, but not boring. I think it's very possible we are watching the demise of great hopes before this series with the Jays began. Our #1 and #2 starters have been demolished on consecutive nights, and tomorrow the great Porcello will be in charge of keeping this boat afloat. Almost as bad, we can't be sure if Nunez will ever return to the lineup or when Betts will. We could well be losing three straight while the Yankees win three straight, thereby closing to 2 games with 4 to play and us going against the Astros.

Meh. I don't much like him either, especially this year. But in this case I think we need to give Happ some credit--he pitched him perfectly.

That HanRam K with 2 men on showed the fundamental difference between a pitcher like Happ and basically any of ours. He threw four straight pitches low and away. One changeup and one 2-seamer were rightfully called balls, but Happ stayed there until the count was 2-2. Then he threw a four seamer 95 mph on the inside waist high and HanRam was helpless. Most of our guys can throw a decent fastball on the inside corner, but none is able to throw four in a row, 2 for strikes, low and away. No one.

Stunning work by the lineup. After the miracle double by Young with no one out in the 1st, the Sox have made 15 straight outs.

I am incredulous at the comments about Sale not pitching tonight in order to rest him for the postseason. But maybe I do understand. By not starting Sale, Farrell could have sent out Porcello, followed by ERod, Pom, Fister, and, oh yes, Porcello again for the last game of the season. The Yankees meanwhile will be down 3 after tonight and continue with their hot streak while the Sox rotation is shredded and the lineup continues to struggle as it has for big chunks of this season. I am exaggerating only a little to make this point. Last year the consensus on talksox, reiterated ad nauseum, was the Farrell rested guys which cost the Sox the homefield advantage. Imagine the furor this year if the Sox don't even win the AL East. Either way, it will be so, so nice to blame Farrell for not using the right players at the right time. If he doesn't start Sale tonight, he's trying to lose now. If he does start him, he's not resting him for the postseason. But it's gotcha either way.