Maxbialystock

Further data worth considering. Individual Sox DWAR's this season: Betts 1.8 Leon .9 Bradley .4 Vazquez .2 Kinsler .2 A million guys, mostly pitchers 0 Holt -.1 Pearce -.4 Swihart -.4 Moreland -.5 Benintendi -.6 Devers -.9 Bogaerts -1.0 JD Martinez -1.4 Nunez -1.5 Individual Sox OWAR's this season: Betts 8.7 JDM 6.8 Bogaerts 5.6 Benintendi 4.0 JBJ 2.0 Holt 1.6 Pearce 2.4 (I doubled his 1.2, which he earned in 50 games) Devers 1.2 Moreland .8 Nunez .6 Swihart 0 Kinsler -.1 Vazquez -.4 Leon -.9 Overall WAR Betts 10.9 JDM 6.4 Beni 3.9 Bogie 3.8 JBJ 2.1 Holt 1.3 Moreland .9 Pearce .6 (.3 doubled) Kinsler .1 Devers 0 Swihart -.3 Leon -.5 Vazquez -.8 Nunez -1.1 The overall WAR's are the most suggestive. Of the top 5, 4 are outfielders, which argues for moving Mookie to 2B. But the WAR's also suggest maybe Holt should be at 3B instead of Devers. Also, the strong need for 3 catchers to make it easier to pinch hit for Vazuez/Leon.

Like the kid from Duke who couldn't stop tripping people. The is an element of entitlement in all this. Both are very talented, and I think they assume they don't have to abide by the rules. And guess what? So far both have been absolutely right. There is no real penalty.

I think we all need to agree on something pretty basic. When the Sox go to LA, it will be almost obligatory to keep JDM in the lineup, and he can only play in the outfield. So, one way or the other, the Sox are going to have to pay a price in defense. My view is that the smallest defensive price to be paid is moving JDM to LF and leaving Mookie in RF and JBJ in CF because the latter two are much better at their positions than Beni is in LF. Moving Mookie to 2B keeps more good bats in the lineup, but pays a heavier defensive price with JDM in RF and Mookie at 2B. I think Mookie can handle 2B, but not as well as Kinsler or Holt. Plus I feel confident that Machado would try to injure him as he did Pedroia. No easy choices, and I will be happy with whatever Cora decides.

To remind: the purpose of the OP was discussion. Rare is the Sox fan these days who would question a decision by Cora. That said, I think the case for playing JBJ in CF, Mookie in RF, and JDM in LF is the strongest. Beni sits for two reasons: JBJ has the hotter bat, not just in the postseason, but in August and September; and he is the better outfielder. I would hasten to add, however, that historically--all of last year and most of this year--Beni would start, period. His cumulative WAR (which includes offense and defense) for 2017 and 2018 is 6.5 to JBJ's 4.9. He is also the only guy who seems comfortable batting 2d. And this. Two more games before going to Milwaukee, and those are likely to be important data points.

I disagree but think your view is entirely plausible. Last night I was simply stunned at how much better he was. vs. his first four saves.

What the heck is your message here? Are you honestly saying that folks who thought Cora especially but also DD did a good job are pollyannas who failed abysmally to fix this team? I'm sorry, but to me it's beyond question that DD made two fantastic moves to ensure success in 2018 and nothing else matters. He dumped Farrell--who wasn't all that bad--to get Cora, who has been terrific. And he brought in JDM, the reincarnation of David Ortiz who has had the same effect on the lineup that Ortiz did. And together his new manager and he agreed it was high time to designate HanRam for assignment, which meant paying him not to play for the Sox. Great move! I would love to claim I'm a pollyanna because the actual character had a positive effect on everyone around her. But I'm not. I'm more like Cassandra. I can recite from memory all the things I see wrong with anyone on the team. But I'd have to be blind not to see the effect Cora and DD have had on this team which I entirely agree is less than perfect individually, but an absolute powerhouse collectively.

My thought is that Mookie and JBJ are either gold glove or close to it in the two toughest OF positions, so right away I like keeping them exactly where they have been. Beni's post-season OPS is .625 to JBJ's .853--big edge to JBJ. Moreover, JBJ's August and September OPS's were .826 and .827 vs, Beni's .771 and .667. So JBJ has a significant edge on offense and defense. No contest. Beni sits 3 games. Mookie at 2b weakens two positions on defense--2B and RF. And, if LA is in the WS, you can bet Machado ("the machete") will go after his knees, ankles, whatever. Ty Cobb reborn.

He's gotta play and it's gotta be in the OF. Who drops out? Can Mookie move to 2B?

Agree on all. Nicely said.

Back to the future. Catchy title, no? I simply don't know enough about NL teams to say which team would be tougher. And you know something? That just might be the right call--they are equally tough/easy. The Brewers had 4 more regular season wins, but the Dodgers have been here recently and the Brewers definitely not. Both have lower OPS's than the Sox and lower ERA's. Both had to play single playoff games before the NLDS started. One big LA edge, however, might be that during the regular season their run differential was + 194 and Milwaukee's was + 95.

And who would no better than us--hanging on every pitch? On another thread everyone is identifying the many plays and players who contributed in both the ALDS and ALCS--and everyone of them is right. But I tend to gravitate toward Cora who I think brought the best of his guys by his decisions and by the way he has molded this team. But your point is dead on. Yes, Cora was great, and so were the players, but it sure wasn't easy. OK, OK--maybe the 16-1 game was easy.

All good.

I found last night to be a game changer in terms of my view of Kimbrel and I completely buy the notion that he was tipping his pitches. He only has 2 pitches, so knowing which one is coming would be huge because it's the difference between a blazing fast ball and a big breaking knuckle curve that gives him the edge. I still would be reluctant to give him a long-term contract, however.

Sox did take 3 of 4 and 4 of 5 and 5 straight on the other teams' fields, but I sure didn't see any cakewalk. Kimbrel made sure of that. I do think the Sox should be favored. They have yet to lose a WS in the past 15 years and have won 3 of them, sweeping 2 (Cards and Rockies). But you gotta play the games, and strange things can happen.

You don't know the dates? First game is Tuesday, Oct 23, so of course Sale and Price can start games 1 and 2, and Price would actually be getting an extra day's rest. I would be tempted to go with Sale and Eovaldi, however, because they will be more of a contrast in pitching styles. Sale and Price are a lot alike.

The above is by no means dead on with respect to specifics--not all of those predictions held true. But what is absolutely stunning about it is that it first appeared on page 4 of this thread when the conversation had already devolved into talking about Kimbrel's future and other arcane matters. And iortiz was absolutely the only real optimist about the ALCS. Everyone else, including me, thought the Astros were formidable. Certainly no one thought winning 3 in Houston was possible. The best anyone other than iortiz could say was that it would be a tough series. And that's actually true. However, iortiz and iortiz alone claimed that Price could be great in this series, and he was dead right. Last night Price clearly outpitched the greatest postseason righthander starter in MLB history--well, at least in Verlander's mind he is the greatest.

Agree with cp176 that Farrell wasn't as awful as many claim, but I sure have to take my hat off to DD for letting him go and going after Cora, who all season long has been a big factor in this season's success. In the postseason, if anything, he got better, which was hard to do. Last night to me was the throwaway game, the one the Astros were sure to win because they had to win and because Verlander was on the mound. With Sale out and Price on short rest, I would have gone with ERod, but out Price came and it really was a different Price. He did not begin with blazing fastballs near the center of the zone. He did keep the ball low. He did throw a lot of changeups (but nary a slider). And he mostly kept that stupid cut fastball out of the zone. I don't think Cora told him to do all that, but credit him with giving Price another shot. The simple fact that he gave Price the ball had to make Price feel pretty good. Very few of us thought dumping HanRam was a bad idea. Also, a shout out to iortiz, who had tons of confidence when many of us did not. I personally believed the hype about the Yankees, who earlier in the season I likened to an oncoming freight train, and then about the Astros, the flawless reigning champions. Well the freight train ran off the tracks and the flawless aren't quite so perfect. An added note about the Astros and Astro fans. Boy, talk about a sense of entitlement. The entire Astros world seems to believe that the interference call was a gross injustice, almost as if Betts had claimed into the stands, taken the ball out of a fan's hands, and then claimed he caught it. To me there was no question the fan hit Betts glove when he was about to catch the ball. I don't mind admitting that where his glove was at that moment was very much a judgment call which the cameras could not help with. However, I also think it's a stupid rule to draw the line at the wall/fence because I think fielders should have more leeway than that. In this case, Betts himself never came close to leaving the field of play, so everything he did should have been protected/allowed. I also found it laughable that the Astros manager claimed Betts was one or two rows into the stands. And they said all those things after the game had ended, which means they truly believe the Sox scoring 8 runs had nothing whatsoever to do with the outcome. Talk about blinders. After last night's game, Verlander did his share of whining too--Devers home run in his judgment was a cheap shot, a lucky dinger, a 330 pop fly that ended up in the stands. Hey, Justin--no crying in baseball. And did he have a good word about the opposing starter, who threw 6 shutout innings? Of course not. Sore loser.

The Sox have won three WS in this century--the John Henry era so far--and lost none. The pitching is nowhere near as good as it was in 2013, but the lineup is, in the words of the Astros manager, relentless, and the pitching and defense can surprise you. A lot of unknowns with the Dodgers and Brewers because we don't play them often and not at all this season. So one presumes the scouts have been doing their jobs. We do know that both teams have pretty good pitching and so-so hitting and that the Sox just took 4 of 5 from a team with very good pitching and pretty good hitting. Playing in their ballparks will be tricky because JDM is our best postseason hitter and Cora will be very reluctant to lose one of his regular outfielders. Too bad Mookie doesn't play 2b any more. Wouldn't that be a fix? I've been rooting for the Brewers out of sheer enmity for the Dodgers, but weather-wise Milwaukee can get chilly even with climate change.

Amazingly, this wasn’t too far off the mark. He has kept the ball lowe and mostly thrown cutters out of the zone and fast balls on the edges. Lots of changeups, but not a single slider so far. And it worked for 2 innings.

Baloney. 1st AB tonight he got fat fast ball he popped up. 2d AB same exact pitch, but no swing, but he did swing at two marginal pitches. No patience. None.

Horrible at bat.

Here's a thought. Anyone else remember the ALCS in 2004 and the one in 2007? Both years the Sox were exactly where the Astros are right now, down 1-3 in games. Then both times the Sox took three straight. I think Houston has that potential, so every Sox fan who is inclined to worry now officially has a sound basis for doing so. I have spoken.

Pretty good target, agreed. Don't see 5 and could be 3 or less. Since I'm one of the more renowned pitching coaches in MLB history, I have free advice for Price. He should do these three things: use his breaking stuff--slider, changeup, curve if he has one, to get the outs; use his fast ball and cutter as waste pitches; try to keep the ball low in the zone.

You are of course both right. We should be paranoid, but the Sox have also been fantastic in this postseason. Here's one reason for continued anxiety. Sox ERA so far is 4.13. In 2013 it was 2.59. In 2007 it was 3.29. Clearly, our pitching won't hack it. But guess what the team ERA was in the 2004 postseason? 4.47. And guess what the Astros--you know, best pitching staff in MLB by a country mile--is this postseason? 4.21. So there is hope.

I would have started ERod tonight and am fascinated Cora did not. I'm sure he's right, of course. This ALCS has been really tricky for Cora to manage: starters who can't get started; closer/stopper who leaks a lot; offense that works but in unexpected ways (especially JBJ); injuries to key guys (Wright, Sale, Moreland); defensive issue at 3B; going against two 100 win juggernauts, both of whom were favored to beat the Sox. Tonight is all of the above and more. Sale is out. Price pitched Sunday and gave up 4 walks, a dinger, and 4 runs in 4.2 innings and threw 80 pitches. The bullpen has been worked hard, especially Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, and Kimbrel. ERod, Hembree, and Workman should all be ready, and tomorrow is an off day. My real point is that Cora seems very good at improvising. And boy is he decisive. ERod pitched to one guy, walked him, and was gone. Brasier took over, finished that inning unscathed, and got 2 outs in the 7th before Barnes came in for the final out. Then, lo and behold, Kimbrel, THE RESTED ONE, came in for a 2 inning save with a 3 run lead. Maybe the first time ever, especially in a Sox uniform. But he walked 3 guys, gave up 2 hits, and even got another HBP--and the last out, the game-winner, was a Bregman hard liner that Beni made a great play on--thank goodness for the glove on the right hand. To me Cora has the rare ability to be decisive even when he leaves someone in. He fully assimilates the current situation--and the overall context of the game and the series--and simply knows what he wants to do at any given moment. So I see tonight as simply more of the same. The lineup is intact and gives Cora some options. It all begins with Price of course. And it helps that there are still two games at Fenway if needed.