Maxbialystock

The Sox let Mookie Betts, whose average WAR over five seasons was a fantastic 8, go to the Dodgers, who are now paying Mookie $365M for 12 years, guaranteed. The problem with Bogey is not that he isn't worth more than the $22M he is currently getting, it's that he wants more and he probably wants 7 years of more, say $25M-$30M per year for 7 years.

Complete agree Bogey has lost little if anything. His defense has in fact improved and his WAR to date is 5.3--only 6.3 in 2019 was better. That 5.3 WAR is the 9th best in MLB right now and the highest among MLB shortstops. The problem is he turns 30 October 1 and wants at least 5 more years and probably 7 with a bump-up in salary--all of which would of course be guaranteed. My guess is his agent is asking for $25M x 7 = $175M. Remember Mookie Betts? His WAR right now is 6.2, 4th best in MLB, and he's on a 12 year, $365M guaranteed contract--and he's the same age as Bogey--both were born in October, 1992.

An excellent post with very accessible language and numbers. I think Moon has said $80M will be available and $100 at the outside. So you two track on money available. However, you missed completely on Bogey and Devers by implying it's all about a one year pay raise. Both want big and long-term, which is exactly what DD gave Price and Sale and the Dodgers gave Mookie Betts ($365M guaranteed for 12 years). Bogey turns 30 in 3 weeks, so I'm guessing what he wants is 7 x $25M=$175M, guaranteed. Raffy turns 26 on Oct 24, so he is going to want at least 10 years, but more likely the 12 years Mookie got. And my guess is his agent is asking for $30M/year for 12 years--$300M, guaranteed. And, frankly, I'm inclined to agree with John Henry and/or Chaim Bloom. Big and long-term contracts which are guaranteed are very risky.

Next stop, the Trop. Worst ballpark in MLB with the 3d worst attendance, 14K/game.

Good explanation by Old Red. My meaningless vote is to play hard and get over .500. No "tanking." I believe I have seen some games which the score--drive by weak hitting and pitching--suggest tanking by the Sox, but I do not think it was.

Of course he is. That's what I said and even cited his cumulative WAR's over his last five years with the Sox--40, which is an average WAR per season of 8. I think just one other MLB player was better, 2015-19--Mike Trout with 45 cumulative and 9 WAR per year. Nobody on the Sox will come anywhere near Mookie's average of 8 for five seasons this year. So, no question he was a big loss. That said, I think paying him what the Dodgers are paying him would make it very difficult to keep Bogey and Devers and/or to fix the pitching. And let me add this minor point. In 5 + seasons with the Sox Mookie's accumulated WAR was 42.3 and he was paid a total of $33M, so the Sox paid him less that $1M per 1 WAR of performance His contract with the Dodgers is 12 years for $365M or $36.5M per season--all guaranteed. In three seasons with the Dodgers his accumulated WAR is 17.8, for which he is being paid $110M, or $6M per 1 WAR of performance. Let me hasten to add that clearly the Dodgers can afford Mookie and all those other good players--a total team salary of $266M this year. I'm not sure the Red Sox can. Indeed, if you subtract Mookie's $36.5M, you get $230M, which next year John Henry might go for because the Sox will also stop paying Price's $16M and some others. moonslav thinks about $80M in salary will be freed up for new acquisitions. Of course both the Sox and the Dodgers know what the least expensive way to acquire excellent ballplayers is to draft and develop them. Indeed, I think that was one of the reasons why the Sox were so terrific in 2018. They had a bunch of talented players who had not yet reached free agency (Mookie was still paid $20M under "team control") plus select acquisitions like Price, Sale, Kimbrel, Eovaldi, and JDM. Their total payroll was I think $236M.

We have definitely seen a resurgence of Sox hitting--Devers, Bogey, Story, and even JDM. Plus Dugo, Arroyo, et al. Let's see what they can do vs. the Rays' excellent pitching (2d best team ERA in the AL). Plus, last time the Sox played the Rays, they took 2 of 3. Also this. The Rangers hitting this year--5th most runs scored in the AL--is better than the Rays hitting.

What a crock. You really think the Sox were unaware of Mookie's talent? After his 2014 partial season, his average WAR for five seasons was freaking 8--for a total WAR of 40. Only Mike Trout was better for the same five seasons at 45 cumulative WAR. The Sox with Betts were good--including the Sox best season ever, 2018--but guess what? One freaking player can't do it all. So in 2015 with Mookie playing full time, the Sox were dead last in the AL East. The next two years, 2016 and 2017, with the additions of Price and Kimbrel--and Sale in 2017--the Sox won the AL East and were promptly slaughtered both years in the ALDS. To get over the top, DD brought in DH JD Martinez, whose OPS in 2018 was over 1.000. I believe JDM made everyone else in the lineup better, including MVP Mookie Betts. He also brought in Eovaldi in 2018. Nevertheless, the next year, 2019, with Mookie having another good year and everyone else back from the 2018 juggernaut, the Sox didn't even make the postseason because the pitching collapsed. And Mookie can't pitch. As for Mike Trout, the Angels haven't done diddly with a sure HOF centerfielder. They got to the postseason once, 2014, and lost 3 straight to Kansas City in the ALDS. By the end of the 2019 season it was obvious the Sox needed to rebuild, and that isn't what DD does. Indeed, three of his big hires--Price, Sale, and Eovaldi--haven't done much for the Sox since 2018 even though the Sox have paid them a lot of money. Thus letting Mookie go to the Dodgers was essential to have any hope of keeping Bogey and Devers--to say nothing of rebuilding the pitching staff.

The Sox--read John Henry--couldn't afford Mookie's "third-richest contract in the history of North American Sports," so letting him go along with Price (whose salary would be split between the Dodgers and Sox) to the Dodgers was a good move made even better by getting Verdugo and Wong in return. Conceivably, letting Mookie go just might allow the Sox to keep Bogey and Raffy, but that remains to be seen. Bloom still has to fix a pitching staff with the 2d worst team ERA in the American League.

Agree completely. I will never understand why he started a rookie and then brought in that worthless piece of crap Whitlock to pitch both the 7th and 8th. Huge mistakes.

Disagree on the roulette. Agree Barnes utterly failed to close and Schreiber had to save him, but I also agree with sending him out there. This was undoubtedly Schreiber's best save this year because he usually doesn't do well coming in with men on based--and tonight they were loaded and he just threw great stuff with excellent command for a K and a ground out. Barnes got screwed by Story when he fumbled a perfect double play ball; then he got screwed by a full swing dribbler to 3b. Whitlocks' 3 runs were off two dingers, one with a man on. But he pitched an excellent 7th. Verdugo was hitless, but I think that grab in right center was an absolute gem and all he had to do for the Sox tonight. He never looked this good in LF, plus he has a decent arm. Sox were 1/14 with RISP, but I still like the 5 runs. I think SPLENDIDSPLINTER said in the OP that this lineup is pretty good and the Sox should win. Good call. The disappearance by our big three--Bogey, Raffy, and JDM--seems to be over. Plus Dugo, Story, Arroyo, Pham, and possibly Kike. Last night's bullpen was spectacularly good over 6 innings. Tonight's struggled to get thru 3 with a 5-0 lead. That's our bullpen and that's baseball. A fun game to watch.

I think Billy Beane says that in Moneyball--"they really have no idea."

I go both ways on that. Mostly, I applaud what they have done. When John Henry took over the Red Sox, they were already competitive, but couldn't get over the hump and end the 86 year drought. The Rays, like the fish they were named for, lived in the depths year after year. Suddenly, in 2008, they won 97 games after winning just 66 in 2007--and defeated the White Sox in the ALDS and the Red Sox in the ALCS before going down to the Phillies in the WS. Since then, they haven't even been back to the World Series, but they have become semi-regulars in the postseason, and the team deserves much better fan support than they get. Moneyball is all about Billy Beane and the A's and sabermetrics--which at the end of the movie John Henry says he too believes in. But to me what the Rays have done is far more impressive in terms of getting quality players and teams with relatively low salaries because they have been far more successful in winning games and getting to the postseason. On the other hand, I do not believe the postseason is a crapshoot. Winning the WS still means something, so does getting to the World series and even getting to the ALCS or NLCS. Last year I thought the Braves winning the WS was a fluke, but in fact they had a solid run differential of +134. In the National League only the Dodgers and Giants were better, and they had to play each other in the NLDS, with the Dodgers winning and then losing in 6 games to the Braves, who then beat the Astros.

They won it last year too.

No, I did not. And you are no doubt right.

Not bad. Not bad at all.

Including tonight, in his last 15 games Brasier has given up 0 runs in 10 of them. When he's good, he's pretty good, and when he isn't, he's horrid.

Devers looked fine going after that fly.

Didn't moonslav say he thought Wong should be called up? What the heck was he thinking?

a SPLENDSPLINTER specialty

Likewise.

Good reaction by Alexy.

Yankees lead the AL in runs with 652. Right behind them is a cluster of 4 teams with between 600 and 592 runs--including the Sox and the Rangers. So the Sox pitching is doing pretty good tonight.

Replay shows Pivetta getting hit and hurt. Thus 50 pitches.

Great call, especially no GIDP.