Maxbialystock

I am more than happy to agree that the Sox were way, way, way behind the Orioles this season. But my math is dead right because the 162 game season magnifies the difference between winning 6 out of 10 games and winning 5 out of ten games. Exactly as you say, 10 games for each team is just 1/16th of a season. But 10 games is almost the entire postseason. For example, in 2004, 2007, and 2018, the Sox won the WS and played, each time, 14 games in the postseason. All three years the Sox had to win the ALDS, the ALCS, and the WS. When the Sox lost to the Astros in the ALCS two years ago, they played a total 11 games: 1 vs. the NYY, 4 vs. the Rays, and 6 vs. the Astros.

Yes, but I think MLB is set on more games and therefore more accumulated ratings. My guess is that the Yankees vs the Dodgers would draw the most, but that's just the WS. Shirley three game wild card series for eight teams, followed by five game division series for eight teams, followed by seven game, etc--will increase TV revenues regardless of who makes it to the World Series.

The new format with 3 game wild card series means the 4 teams with byes--Orioles, Astros, Dodgers, and Braves--took 6 days off before their first games in the division series. That's too many if you want to keep your edge. And that's especially true when you realize that the low-life "lucky" teams that barely got into the postseason won 5 1/2 out of every 10 games they played compared to the elite teams (with the byes--except for the Rays) who won just 6 of 10 games they played. So, while I would love to say the new format is unfair to the best teams--by making them wait 6 days--I also recognize that even 100 wins doesn't make you that much better than 90 win team. Here's a horrible, terrible thought. The Sox were absolutely dreadful this year, so bad that many on Talksox wanted everyone fired--Bloom, Cora, the coaches, other executives, you name 'em. Clean the freaking house out!!!! But the Sox won 48% of the time or basically 5 out of 10 games compared to the fantastic Orioles, 101 wins, who won 6 out of 10 games. In other words, the distance between the penthouse and the outhouse ain't nearly as great as Talksoxers believe it is.

Dave Roberts should have done the same thing by having a good bullpen arm ready from the 2d inning on and maybe from the 1st inning on. As it was, no one was in the bullpen until the Diamondbacks nailed 2 and maybe 3 dingers in the 3d inning. If the Braves lose, that means all four teams with close to 100 wins--Orioles, Dodgers, Braves, and Rays--will have been eliminated right off the bat. Rays in the "wild card" and the other three in the division series. If you were one of the four teams with a bye in the wild card round, you had 6 days off. I think that's too many to maintain your edge. In 2007 the Rockies killed everyone in the postseason and had to wait 9 freaking days before playing the Sox, who needed 7 games to eliminate the Guardians. Sox swept the Rockies in the WS. So far this year the Dodgers and Orioles have been swept, the Astros beat the Twins, and the Phillies are up on the Braves, 2 games to 1.

I was just about to post that the AL East was over-rated, so thanks for those insights. Let's not forget that the 101 win Orioles and the 99 win Rays still only won 6 out of every 10 freaking games. The Rays were squashed by the Astros, who won 5 1/2 out of every 6 games this season. Same goes for the Rangers, who are about to take 3 of 3 from the Orioles. Guess which current AL East Manager has the best record (17-8) in the postseason (and by a big margin)?

I only bring it up when I see yet another complaint--sometimes by you--about how Crazy Cora rested someone. You have said it often enough for others to assume it must be true: resting players is stupid and the reason why the Sox have had lousy seasons in 2022 and 2023.

Yes, I did know that. It's one of the reasons why I keep harping on righty bats. The 2013 solved that problem by having several switch hitters. The 2007 Sox had Mike Lowell, Youk, Manny, and Pedey. 2004, Manny, Millar Bellhorn, Tek, and Mueller. Tek and Mueller were switch hitters.

Probably not. I'm just saying that using them is against the rules, is monitored, and is therefore stupid.

Who cares about Dugo? I like his defense in RF, but he is part of the lefty bat problem. But my real question has to be why you are touting Soto when elsewhere you have claimed the Sox only real need is good starters. You said that rather emphatically. But now you want a lefty bat instead?

No, he's dumb for riding a motorcycle and using PED's. And it's actually possible to hit 42 dingers in a season and not ride motorcycles or use PED's. Consumer Reports did the research.

Let the celebrations begin when the Sox sign Soto, another lefty bat. Just what the doctor ordered.

I know you're being sarcastic, but would remind you that the games played by the top seven Sox position players in 2018 make it clear that missing a bunch of games, whether because of Cora or injury, did not prevent that team from being the best Sox team ever and one of the best MLB teams ever. I have also acknowledged that the Braves preference for playing their top 3 or 4 players as often as possible has worked for them. The problems with this year's Sox were mostly pitching, which was definitely affected by multiple injuries (Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Paxton, etc) and by the brutal 48 games in August-September with just 3 days off. The injuries to Story and Duvall also affected the righty bats in the Sox lineup. Of the top seven Sox hitters--based on total bases by each hitter--5 were lefties and 2 (Turner and Duvall) were righties. Story, who signed for 6 years and $140M 2 years ago, was 15th in total bases.

Let's try this. Can we agree Story, whose DWAR was +1.0 this season, is the best defensive SS the Sox had this year or any season going back to 2014? Can we also agree that SS is a key position on defense? If we can agree on those two points, consider the following. The game log on Story says that he played in 43 games for the Sox and that the Sox won 18 of those games and lost 25.

I'm not against aces. Far from it. As you say, they can make a big difference, especially if your goal is winning the WS. So your recitation of aces past is spot on. I picked 2021 because it was just 2 seasons ago and is therefore relevant to where the Sox are right now, because I think 93 wins in 2024 is worthwhile goal (and the WS might not be realistic), and because I see some parallels but also some big differences. And to me the two rotations, 2021 and 2023, are remarkably similar despite the plethora of injuries in 2023. Indeed, if you remove just Eovaldi from 2021, the 2023 rotation is clearly better than 2021. On the other hand, the lineups, the bats, are vastly different. The good one, 2021, had a bunch of righty bats--which, I hasten to add/emphasize, DID NOT INCLUDE MOOKIE BETTS. The not so good one, 2023, had a bunch of lefty bats. So to me it's pretty obvious the Sox need more righty bats than they had this season and that fixing that should have as much emphasis as getting one or two reliable starters. One other difference between 2021 and 2023. 2021's payroll was the 6th biggest in MLB. 2023's is ranked 15th. So, just as you have said several times, the Sox can afford to spend more to fix the pitching and hitting. And one other similarity between 2021 and 2023. Lousy defense. 2021's was ranked 29th with a team fielding percentage of .981. They committed 107 errors. The 2023 Sox finished 28th with 102 errors and a fielding percentage of .982.

As always, clear as a bell. You want starters and all else is secondary. I don't agree. For starters, let's compare the 2023 Sox to the 2021 Sox, who won 93 games, were a wild card, and made it to the ALCS. The 2021 Sox finished 5th in MLB in total runs scored. And here are the top seven bats on that team-- Devers, lefty bat, 3b: .890 OPS, 113 rbi's, 318 total bases, WAR 3.5 JDM, righty bat, DH: .867 OPS, 99 rbi's, 295 total bases, WAR 3.0 Renfroe, righty bat, RF: .816 OPS, 96 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 2.4 Bogey, righty bat, SS: .863 OPS, 79 rbi's, 261 total bases, WAR 4.9 Dugo, lefty bat, LF/RF: .777 OPS, 63 rbi's, 232 total bases, WAR 2.2 Kike Herndandez, righty bat, CF: .786 OPS, 60 rbi's, 229 total bases, WAR 4.9 Bobby Dalbec, righty bat, 1b: .792 OPS, 78 rbi's, 206 total bases, WAR 0.2 This year's (2023) Sox finished 11th in MLB in runs scored, which historically has guaranteed they would not make it to the postseason. And here are this year's top Sox hitters: Devers, lefty bat, 3b: OPS .851, 100 rbi's, 290 total bases, WAR 3.5 Turner, righty bat, DH/1B: OPS .800, 96 rbi's, 254 total bases, WAR 2.1 Yoshida, lefty bat, DH/LF: OPS .783, 72 rbi's, 239 total bases, WAR 1.4 Dugo, lefty bat, RF: OPS .745; 54 rbi's, 230 total bases, WAR 2.6 Casas, lefty bat, 1b/DH: OPS .856, 65 rbi's, 210 total bases, WAR 2.2 Duvall, righty bat, CF/RF: OPS .834, 58 rbi's, 170 total bases, WAR 1.5 Duran, lefty bat, CF/LF: OPS .828, 40 rbi's, 160 total bases, WAR 2.2. Ah, you might say, but the 2021 Sox had a much better pitching staff. Well, yes and no. Their team ERA was 4.24, 15th best in MLB. The 2023 Sox team ERA was 4.52, 21st in MLB. However, the lowest team ERA this season was the Brewers 3.71--so the 21st place Sox were less than 1 ER below the best staff in MLB. The lowest team ERA in 2021 was the Dodgers' 3.01, so the 15th best Sox ERA of 4.24 was more than 1 ER behind the best. Since starters are your thing, here are the top 5 starters from the 2021 Sox-- Eovaldi, 32 starts, 13 quality starts, 182 IP, ERA 3.75, WAR 4.6. ERod, 31 starts, 9 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 1.9 Pivetta, 30 starts, 8 quality starts, 155 IP, ERA 4.53, WAR 2.6 Richards, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 136 IP, ERA 4.87, WAR 0.2 Perez, 22 starts, 4 quality starts, 114 IP, ERA 4.74, WAR 0.5 And here are the top 6 starters for the 2023 Sox-- Bello, 28 starts, 15 quality starts, 157 IP, ERA 4.24, WAR 3.1 Crawford, 23 starts, 4 quality starts, 129 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.5 Houck, 21 starts, 5 quality starts, 106 IP, ERA 5.01, WAR 1.3 Sale, 20 starts, 6 quality starts, 102 IP, ERA 4.30, WAR 1.7 Paxton, 19 starts, 8 quality starts, 96 IP, ERA 4.50, WAR 1.1 Pivetta, 16 starts, 5 quality starts, 142 IP, ERA 4.04, WAR 2.4 My take on the above is that the six in 2023 were about as good as the five in 2021--except for the quantity of starts. The 2023 "six" had 43 quality starts to 2021's "five's" 38 quality starts. I think they might have had a lower ERA too. And my point is that I think you have over-reacted to this year's pitching problem because you have ignored the effects of all those pitchers/starters on the IL as well as the daunting 4-Aug to 20 Sep schedule (48 games with just 3 days off). I think Bello, Sale, Pivetta, and Crawford would be a good start on a rotation next year. If they are healthy, they could average between 25 and 30 starts (or a total of 100 to 120 starts). If the Sox spend enough in cash/salary and prospects for one good starter, that might be enough. This would also allow the Sox to solve the biggest problem with this year's team: too many freaking lefty bats.

Kershaw lasted .1 innings while giving up 6 runs. Now it's 9-0 Diamondbacks in the 2d. Braves also lost, 3-0, to the Phillies. And the Orioles 3-2 to Rangers. Astros are the only home team in the Division Series who won the first game.

I won't be.

Meh. I've semi-adopted teams near where I was living: the Kansas Royals, the Baltimore Orioles, the Washington Senators and Nationals, and the Philadelphia Phillies. I've also seen pro football games in person, Div I basketball at Madison Square Garden and collegiate sports of all kinds (lacrosse, tennis, squash, football, basketball, soccer, etc). I even went to the World Cup in DC. And it's my opinion that the best sport to watch in person is MLB--except at Fenway Park, where the sight lines were always abysmal and the seats expensive. As for the Rays, I read that roughly 3 million people live within roughly an hour's drive of the Trop, which I think is a horrible ballpark. So it makes sense to build a good ballpark where the Trop is.

Maybe, maybe not. The 2012 Sox were dead last in the AL East and 3d from the bottom in the AL. The 2013 Sox won it all--the AL East and the WS. The woebegone 2012 Sox won 40% of their games and the triumphant 2013 Sox won 60%. The distance from the outhouse to the penthouse is 20%. Like Crash Davis (Kevin Costner) explaining the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter--just one hit a week.

He looked pretty good this year, but at 35 he is showing some frailty--92 games this year, 86 last year. I'm all for righty bats, but maybe Rafaela, Story, and Reyes/Urias are the best options for next year. Bader's hitting does not impress me--Dugo would be better.

Harrison Bader can't hit. Lifetime OPS is .703. Dugo would be better.

Some caveats about the job Bloom did. The first is that the AL East is easily the toughest division in MLB this year as it was last year and several years before. The second--which everyone on talksox either ignores or forgets--is that the season is 162 games long, which means that small differences in winning percentages are magnified in the standings. The Sox finished 4 games behind the Yankees and 23 freaking games behind the Orioles. But the Sox won 48% of their games and the Yankees 51%--so basically both teams won half their games. And the Orioles won 101 games, which is a ton, but their winning percentage was 62%. So, rounding off, the Orioles won 6 out of every 10 games they played, and the Sox won 5 out of 10. Third is the payroll. Since Chaim Bloom took over as CBO of the Sox he has been captain of the starship enterprise, boldly going where no Red Sox CBO has gone in at least 40 years--trying to cobble together a winning team with the 15th biggest payroll in MLB. No Sox CBO has ever done that--at least, not in the JH era--so why should he be expected to? I have no heartburn with Chaim Bloom being fired. This Sox team has been a disappointment, and someone has to be the fall guy. Who better than the Chief of Baseball Operations?

I'd forgotten about the 4 years of control (pre-arb and arb).

Too many lefty bats in the outfield--Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Abreu--when the Sox need righty power and already have Casas and Devers, both lefty bats, anchoring the infield. This year's one righty bat was Turner. Duvall didn't play enough, which is standard for him--plus he's 35. For next year we have Story and presumably Rafaela. I would not spend big to keep Turner or Duvall.

Dalbec's WAR for 2021 was 0.2. Duran's this year was 2.2. Huge difference. Nevertheless, your point is valid. Sox need another good year from Duran before signing him longer term.