Maxbialystock

One more time, here are the games played by the top 8 (in games played) players on the 2018 Sox, the best Sox team ever and one of the best MLB teams ever-- JDM 150 Beni 148 JBJ 144 Betts 136 (won AL MVP) Bogey 136 Nunez 127 Moreland 124 Devers 121 As I also said before, some of those low numbers, like Mookie's 136 games, were the result of both injuries and rest days. Nevertheless, they were in fact missed games. It is therefore unarguable that missed games, whether because of injury or for rest, do not prevent a team from playing well. I hasten to add that the Atlanta Braves prefer to play their best players in every possible game, and clearly that works for them.

Thanks for the correction. So I guess that's kind of a clean sweep. Every Sox starter this year spent time on the IL or in the bullpen. I think this also confirms what a lousy manager Cora was this season. How could he have let that happen?

JBJ was up and down (between Pawtucket and Boston) like a yo-yo in 2014. But his lousy hitting was in tune with his teammates. Here are OPS's of the 7 Sox with the most innings played: Ortiz .873; Pedey .712; Bogey .660; Napoli .789; Holt .711; Nava .706; JBJ .531.

Of course he didn't. That's the point. This season mirrors 2012 in that the rotation was a shambled. Bello is the only starter who didn't go on the IL (nor was relegated to the bullpen--Pivetta). When 2013 rolled around, however, the Sox didn't just have Lackey. They also had Lester and--surprise, surprise--Clay Buchholz, who went completely ape in the first three months with 13 quality starts in 16 total starts. That year Lester had 20 quality starts and Lackey 19. Plus Koji Uehara in the bullpen. The pitching was transformed--and that carried over into the postseason. I don't see that happening in 2024, but agree with the consensus that job one is to fix the rotation. Bello with 15 quality starts in his rookie season is a good start. I think the Sale comeback this year, despite missing over 2 months, was promising. He was fantastic in May (4 starts, 26.2 innings, 3 quality starts, ERA 2.42) and almost decent in September (5 starts, 25 innings, ERA 2.88) when he ratcheted down his fastball to the low 90's. He turns 35 in March, but he basically rested 3 seasons, 2020-22. I think he could go 150 innings next year and just maybe 15 quality starts. So theoretically the new Sox management only needs to get one quality starter for next year. Two would be better, but the Sox also need to make other fixes. My biggest concern is with righty bats. Story needs to come around, but they also need at least one more .800 OPS righty bat.

2012 Sox were the pits: 69-93. The next year the Sox won the WS.

This season 58 MLB pitchers went 150 or more innings--or about 2 per team. The Sox had one, Bello with 157 innings. Some simple math is revealing. 30 starts is a good season: 37 MLB pitchers, roughly one per team, had 30 or more starts this season. And 5 innings per start is, if not great, pretty close to standard, if only because of the statistical phenomenon that hitters get awfully tough the 3d time they face a starter in the same game. On the other hand, a quality start requires 6 or more innings with 3 or fewer earned runs scored against. 28 MLB pitchers this year had 15 or more quality starts--and Bello was one of them. So to me the new CBO/GM's job is simple. Get a starter who is likely to achieve 15 or more quality starts in a season. However, I hasten to add that none of the following MLB pitchers had 15 quality starts this season: Wacha, Eovaldi, Ohtani, Verlander, Scherzer, ERod, Kershaw.

I don't know jack about analytics, but I do know this. In 2018 the Sox had their best season ever--108 wins plus winning 11 of 14 games in the postseason. That was one of the best seasons any MLB team has had. Here are the games played by the top 8 players (in terms of games played) of the 2018 Sox-- JDM 150 Benintendi 148 JBJ 144 Betts (won AL MVP) 136 Bogey 136 Nunez 127 Moreland 124 Devers 121 I'm pretty sure that some of those low numbers, like Mookie's 136 games, were the result of both injuries and days off. Nevertheless, they were missed games and, based on how freaking spectacular the Sox were in 2018, it is unarguable that missed games did not adversely affect the Sox and may even have helped. The 2021 Sox weren't nearly as talented as the 2018 Sox, but they managed to get to the postseason with 93 wins and then to the ALCS before losing to the Astros. Here are the games played by the top 8 Sox players in 2021-- Devers 156 JDM 148 Verdugo 146 Renfroe 144 Bogey 144 Vazquez 138 Kike 134 Dalbec 133 As I have said elsewhere, the Atlanta Braves have the opposite philosophy. They want their best players to play as many games as possible. And I think that works for them.

I didn't say average. I said adequate--his DWAR was -0.5, which is OK with me. Funny thing is, we are almost in concert because you also recognize the best choice for DH next year isn't Devers or Casas, but Yoshida. What I do not want is for the Sox to go after a guy like Chapman, who's older and doesn't hit as well as Devers. They should should spend their money on starters and maybe a couple of good righty bats.

I think his D is adequate. He led the team in assists this year by a huge margin--also in innings played in the field (on defense). So, even though Devers was the Sox best hitter this year, I want his OPS, dingers, rbi's, and total bases all to improve next year. He also played more games than any other Sox player this year--153--so I will be fine if he can equal that next year.

He got $365M, and I'm reasonably sure the Dodgers were prepared to go higher if JH decided to compete. Any discussion of $300M is just silly, and I say that while being fairly sure that, all things being equal, Mookie wanted to stay in Boston. But things weren't equal, not by a long shot.

Lead by example, you say? Let's see, now. Rafael Devers this year led the Sox in Wins Above Replacement, games played, runs scored, rbi's, dingers, and total bases. He was second in OPS, walks, and doubles. Do you ever read what you write, or do you simply have a problem with the English language?

Lead by example, you say? Let's see, now. Rafael Devers this year led the Sox in games played, runs scored, rbi's, dingers, and total bases. He was second in OPS, walks, and doubles. Do you ever read what you write, or do you simply have a problem with the English language?

2023 had bad bats, bat pitching, and bad defense. Specifically, for the Sox bats to be good--good enough to make the postseason--the Sox need to rank in the top 5 in MLB in runs scored. This year they were 11th. In the 21 seasons of the JH era, the Sox have never been to the postseason ranked 11th in runs scored. Cut off for pitching is easier--16th in team ERA--but this year the Sox were 21st in team ERA. 2021 Sox were 14th; 2018 Sox were 8th; 2017 Sox were 4th; 2016, 9th; 2013, 14th; 2009, 16th; 2008, 9th; 2007, 2d; 2004, 11th. One glaring exception was the 2005 Sox, whose team ERA was 25th in MLB. They won 95 games, went to the postseason, and were swept in the ALDS in 3 games by the White Sox: 14-2, 5-4, and 5-3. I can find no correlation between the Sox defense and getting to the postseason. For example, the 2021 Sox made it to the ALCS and were 29th in fielding percentage. In 2017 they were 26th.

So true. You can look it up: the Sox never went anywhere with a team full of good bats. Good hit, no field is a recipe for disaster.

For once I'm going to defend this very excellent point. People forget that the Sox got to the WS exactly one time, 1946, with Ted Williams whose career spanned 1939-1960. What a loser!!!! He too was piss-poor on defense, so bad that Jimmy Piersall asked for a salary increase because he had to cover LF as well as CF.

For once, I'm going to try to keep this simple. 1. Current situation is not hopeless. 2012 team was hopeless (69-93), and the 2013 team won the WS. 2. Get 1-2 starters with real promise and/or track records. Spend the money and/or prospects. Given the current Sox glut of lefty bats, trade one or more away. 3. Improve the hitting, especially the righty bats. This year the Sox had one righty bat, Turner. Duvall missed too many games, Story stunk, Ref can't hit righties, etc. 4. Don't trade to improve the defense. Devers and Casas are our two best hitters and adequate at 3b and 1b. Story is excellent at SS, but killed us with his rotten hitting. Sox won with Kike, errors and and all, at SS and lost with Story at SS. Dodgers got better with Kike.

I agree the defense sucks, but I also think the game threads tend to overlook errors and costly non-errors by opposing teams. When the Sox misplay a ball, it's the end of life as we know it. When the opposing team does the same thing, it's just part of the game. No one on talksox has actually identified specific games in which errors or non-error misplays cost a win. But it's dead easy to identify games won or lost because of hitting and/or pitching. In fact, if you look at the MLB team stats in the John Henry era, you will see that this 2023 Sox team is one of the worst hitting teams, which I determine quite simply by looking at the Sox ranking in total runs scored in the season. Right now they are 11th. To get into the postseason, the Sox need to be on the top 5. A similar calculus applies to the pitching--the ranking of the Sox team ERA, which right now is 21st. Sox pitching (team ERA) doesn't need to be in the top 5, however: the 2018 Sox team ERA was 8th best; 2013 was 14th best; 2004 was 11th best; and 2007 was 2d best. The 2021 Sox made it to the ALCS with the 15th best team ERA.

Let me see now, I think 12 years includes two WS's--2013 and 2018. Plus 2018 was only the best season in Sox history and one of the best MLB seasons ever because the Sox went 11-3 in the postseason against 3 pretty good teams--the Yankees, the Astros, and the Dodgers. In the now 21 years of the John Henry era the Sox ended the 86 year "curse" and won three more WS. That total of 4 WS is more than any other MLB team during those 21 seasons and 3 more than the Yankees have won. I'm not saying we should be happy with this season or last season, but am saying your moaning and groaning is excessive.

Oh, yeah, defense is what this game is all about. What a crock! Hitting and pitching are the sine qua non for any MLB team. You guys all bought into the thesis that Kike at SS was just killing the Sox, but the Sox had a winning record with Kike in the lineup. Now we have a good defensive SS in Story and a losing record with him in the lineup. The Sox are losing this season because the hitting and pitching are both subpar.

Which of course is typical of me--and for which I do apologize. That said, however, I don't like that deal. Why get an older third baseman who can't hit as well as Devers so you can move Devers to a new freaking position and then make Casas the freaking DH when Yoshida is clearly the guy who needs to be the DH? Right now and until someone else comes up with something really smart, I look forward to Devers and Casas, the two best freaking bats in the Sox lineup and both adequate fielders, back at 3b and 1b next season. I love that Story will provide solid defense at SS and hope his OPS is close to his career .832. And I think the Sox will have enough options to provide a good field, semi-decent hitting 2d baseman. With Yoshida as the likely DH, I think at least two good righty bats would be nice in the outfield. Like Duvall and Rafaela--provided Rafaela can hit MLB pitching. Refsnyder is not a good righty bat because he can't hit righty pitchers. I wouldn't mind Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Duvall in RF, but it would be nice if Duran had instructions not to run into walls in futile attempts to catch dingers. Wong and McGuire are a good tandem behind the plate. So that leaves the pitching, which is the biggest problem. In other words, to heck with Chapman, and let's get a one or two good starters if they can be found for less than $35M/year for 10 years--each.

You always make sense, but I have to disagree on Mookie because I think the Dodgers were willing to go to at least $400M to get him. The year was 2019, and the Sox pricey pitching had collapsed. When the Sox cut the deal with the Dodgers, their record was 59-51 and they were in the middle of a freaking 8 game losing streak. Since then, as we now know, the Sox pitching has continued to struggle because JH was tired of paying big bucks--long-term--for starters like Price and Sale. And the great irony is that that's exactly what he was going to have to do--spend even bigger sums for more starters--while also continuing to pay Price and Sale. Thus the hiring of Bloom and the effort to rebuild the farm system, etc. Do I think Mookie would have made a difference if he had stayed with the Sox? Absolutely. But the pitching would still stink unless, of course, the Sox payroll went north of $350M to bring in some more gold standard starters like Price and Sale. With Mookie and Bogey on the current Sox team, I believe the 2023 Sox would make it to the postseason, but no way, no how would they win the AL East unless, as I say, JH also spent major dollars to fix the rotation.

I'm not sure that's the case. I agree with Cora's philosophy because I agree that 162 games--6 games a week for 6 months--are bound to have an effect on position players ability to stay focused. He believes in that approach, and I think it has worked for him. But I would be remiss if I didn't repeat what someone else said. The Atlanta Braves are having another excellent season and have three players--Acuna, Riley, and Olson--who have played in 157, 157, and 160 games. Their respective OPS's and WAR's are 1.009/8.2, .859/5.7, and .994/7.2. So it is unarguable that their approach definitely works for them.

Agree and would add these three points-- 1) Ted Williams' claim that most difficult skill in all of sports is hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely, which becomes even harder when the pitching is good. Thus has Story (age 30, lifetime OPS .836) struggled since he returned from the IL. 2) Command of the strike zone, which means being good at both pitch recognition (especially if it's a ball or strike), but also being ready to swing at hittable pitches. Ted Williams, with his great reflexes and eyesight, was consummate at commanding the strike zone. I think these Sox hitters overall struggle with both pitch recognition and with being ready to swing at hittable pitches. Like the A's players in the movie Moneyball, they have been lectured endlessly on the value of a base on balls--which to me means being passive at the plate. The Rays hitters seem to me to be better at pitch recognition, but also better at attacking hittable pitches. 3) The schedule--which you cite--and especially the 48 games with just 3 days off (Aug 4-Sep 20), but also the injuries to Duran and Casas plus the need to look at Rafaela, Dalbec (yet again), et al. And let's not forget the pressure on the lineup/hitting when the Sox emerged from the ASG break with just 3 starters. Sale, Houck, and Whitlock were on the IL, and Pivetta was in the bullpen. Bello, Paxton (now on the IL), and Crawford were the starters.

I like Casas at 1b because I like his length on those errant throws to 1b. He's so-so on grounders, but that's OK with me. His throws to 2b have been good. And this. His freaking OPS this year was .856!!!!! If you make him DH, that makes Yoshida our full-time leftfielder, where this year his DWAR in just 86 games was -1.1. I would much rather have good bats at 3b and 1b than good gloves/arms. The Sox do not win games with their gloves anywhere near as much as they do with their bats and pitching arms. That said, however, it bothers me that both are lefty bats on a team that needs good righty bats to win. This year the lineup was filled with the likes of Duran, Dugo, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, and McGuire.

I don't question Jim Rice's claim that Mookie said Boston was where he wanted to be. However, Mookie also had an agent who must have told him how freaking valuable he was and is and that the Dodgers were a pretty good landing place with the largest attendance in MLB, etc. Plus which team has made it to the playoffs every season, 2019 to the present? I do not believe Mookie would have signed with the Sox for $300M in lieu of the Dodgers for $365M. In John Henry's defense, I believe he recognized that, to retain Mookie, he was going to have to get in an unwinnable bidding war with the Dodgers. As for Bogey, I frankly didn't think he was worth as much as he got from the Padres. As things turned out, however, Bogey at SS this year would have been huge for the Sox and probably enough to get them into the postseason. Lester, I agree, was a bad decision by the Sox.