Maxbialystock

You could be right about the miasma and certainly others have pointed out the errors, lousy baserunning, striking out with men on base, walks and other failures by the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, etc. My no doubt pollyanna view is that players want to excel in every game. Thus one of the all-time great grabs by Abreu and Rafaela a couple of games ago--in a losing cause, but it was a game-saver when it happened. Or Duran's 5 triples out of 7 by the whole team. I like what I've seen of these Sox players: Bregman, Abreu, Rafaela, Devers, Narvaez, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Campbell, and even Duran. Among the pitchers I like Crochet and Chapman of course, but also Bello, Wilson, Fitts, Weissert, Dobbins, Buehler, Giolito, and Bernardino. That doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see Mayer and Anthony moved up. I would put Anthony in LF and keep Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF. Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, and Campbell to 1b--or leave Campbell at 2b, bench Story, and put Gonzalez at 1b.

I never said the manager should ignore those differences. My point is that managers should feel free to go against the percentages based on what he is seeing on the field of play. Last night was a good example of that when both starters went 7 innings. On the other hand, as recently as last season (or was it the year before), almost all of us cringed when Houck faced a lineup for the 3d time.

They won three straight WS for owner Charlie Finley. Reportedly, he was a terrific judge of baseball talent and used it.

While I can't disagreee with all the negative comments--the Sox did make 3 baserunning errors and the bullpen did give up 5 straight walks to give the Braves a 4-1 lead and win--I'm not confident the Sox score any more runs than the 1 they got from Ref's dinger. I thought the game was over when Crochet gave up 2 dingers, but he ended up with a quality start, 2 runs in 7 IP. Sale, meanwhile, looked better than I can remember him. His slider was almost unhittable, even when thrown to righties. That said, the bigger picture is that these Sox are getting good at losing when they could have won. It's mostly the bullpen, but the baserunning has also stunk. On the hitting side, strikeouts with men on base and men in scoring position. Too many errors on defense.

What "politics of Boston baseball?" Explain that, please.

Good article backed up by persuasive stats. Moonslav makes a key point that this mess--both Story and Yoshida--was Chaim Bloom's doing. But in his defense I would remind everyone that JH was determined to keep the payroll down. Plus I think Campbell, Mayer, Anthony and others were all the result of Bloom's stewardship of the draft and MiLB development. I would of course love to see Mayer moved up and into the SS slot, but I also like Harmony's cautionary note that Mayer might not be a dramatic improvement. Right now I'm inclined to support Breslow's judgment on when to bring up Mayer--or Anthony for that matter. I disagree with how he handled Devers on the 1b caper but not with his overall intent. I think Devers is an excellent DH, but his value to the team increases if he can hit and play 1b adequately. Right now the Sox are ranked 6th in MLB in runs scored and 16th in team ERA. I think those two numbers beg the question, "why are we obsessed with hitting when our biggest problem is pitching?"

Of course I agree that the hitter benefits from facing a pitcher for the 3d time. However, those two OPS's don't seem very far apart to me. I think almost all managers are aware of the third time through the lineup challenge, but also consider other trends by that pitcher in that game as well as in past games that season. It's actually a good thing when a starter successfuly pitches 5, 6, 7, or even 8 or 9 innings. The genius of the movie Moneyball is that it's based on a season and team that really happened. Thus are we compelled to agree with the John Henry character who recounts how little the A's paid for each win in 2002 in comparison to the Yankees. Near the end of the movie he raises sabermetrics to the level of holy writ and condemns all the scouts and managers in the known universe for relying on judgment. I love stats. We all do. But there is still room for baseball judgment.

Sunday, May 18, and Cora is quoted as saying he will be ready to play.

Casas was having a terrible season, WAR -0.8. His injury was tantamound to a godsend. Gonzalez's OPS is 200 points higher than Casas' .580 this season and he is due back this weekend. Right now I'm convinced the best option for Raffy is to leave him at DH if for no other reason than that he is paid to hit and does so. Meanwhile, there is no need to acquire a first baseman. For example, if you don't like Gonzalez, Kristian Campbell's defensive WAR at 2b is -0.6, so why not move him to an easier infield position? This would allow Breslow to bring up Mayer to play SS or 2B. The bigger picture right now is that pitching is the team weakness and debating who plays 1b is just silly. In the American League just 2 teams, NYY and Clevland, have scored more runs than the Sox. Also in the AL, however, only 3 teams have given up more runs than the Sox.

I was disappointed when I saw the run differential next to 1 more loss than wins. But I think your point is correct--it should give us hope.

Love that analysis. I can only add that Whitlock has a huge repertoire for a reliever. One of the best Sox reliever/closers was Koji Uejara, who basically used just two pitches, a slow fastball and a slower splitter--and they were more than enough.

I have said that many, many times on talksox. In their best season ever the Sox had 108 wins, a 67% win percentage. They confirmed that strength in the postseason by beating the Yankees 3 games to 1, Houston 4 games to 1 and the Dodgers 4 games to 1. Their offense was ranked #1 in runs scored and team OPS. Pitching was 6th in ERA, 7th in saves, 8th in On base average, and tied for 10th in quality starts. I think the best reason for the closeness of the winning percentages in MLB is the season's length, 162 games, which translates to 6 games a week for 6 freaking months. When you combine that incredibly long season with the difficulty of hitting a round ball with a round ball squarely and of throwing strikes with a variety of speeds, spins, and aiming points, it seems to me obvious why the teams going to the postseason win around 60% and the total dirt bag losers are around 40%. In 2004 the Yankees winning % (101 wins) was .623 and the bungling Blue Jays, 33.5 games behind the Yankees, were at .416. That's a 20% difference in winning percentage. Oh, and let's not forget the rotten, stinking, no good 2024 Red Sox losers at 50% and the ALE leaders/winners Yankees way, way up there at 58%. Sox finished 20 games back of the Yankees with a freaking 8% differential in winning percentage.

I think the point is that the stats guys say bunting is bad and facing a batter for the third time (or more) is dumb. I like the bunt because it's different and can be effective. I also like starters hanging around as long as they are effective. The problem with relief pitchers is you can't always be sure they will be better than they guy they replace.

Yup.

I like it.

Very exciting game but a very painful bottom of the 11th. Bello gave up 3 runs and the bullpen 8.

I agree--you don't know.

Can't fight 20-20 hindsight.

Agree. What about Ref at first base? I'm convinced that Breslow's campaign to force Devers to play first base has nothing to do with available resources and everything to do with moving Yoshida into the DH slot.

Thoughtful, as always. I'm not against platooning, but must point out that the Sox so far are hitting lefties--OPS .773--a lot better than righties--OPS .735. However, the Sox so far have had 1157 at bats vs righties and just 334 at bats vs lefties. Here are the OPS's vs righties (and against lefties in paretheses)-- Abreu 1.008 (.515) Bregman .954 (.933) Devers .943 (.804) Refsnyder .833 (1.015) Gonzalez .828 (.707) Campbell .789 (.593) Duran .721 (.572) Rafaela .669 (.644) Narvaez .639 (.976) Toro .563 (.000) Story . 549 (1.073) Hamilton .469 (.500) Wong .355 (.650) One foolish footnote. Am I the only one who knows that Ref started as a secondbaseman and has played every infield position except SS and every outfield position? Why isn't he at 1b?

I don't watch much NBA, but nevertheless doubt it's fixed. For one thing, I believe the biggest change in the NBA is that they have embraced the three as never before--and you can't "fix" threes. Last night I thought the Knicks won because they made 38 of 58 twos, including several "dreaded" (low percentage) mid-range jumpers. I don't think Tatum's injury was a big factor because he in fact played 40 of 48 minutes and scored 43 points with 8 rebs. There is so much contact in the NBA it's hard to find fault with the refs, who I'm sure are told not to call "tic-tac" fouls. I had forgotten how much more rigorous the defense becomes in the playoffs.

Toro ain't the problem, not by a long shot. He had nothing to do with last night's loss, and in the previous two starts, both Sox wins, he did nothing egregiously wrong. Why do you and everyone else keep ignoring the fact that, when he was injured, Casas's OPS was -0.8? As I keep saying and you and others keep ignoring, replacing Casas is the easiest thing in the world. I agree Toro is just a bandaid, but believe Gonzalez is good enough to finish this season at first base. By the way, another bandaid is already on the team. Wong played 1b last season, and Narvaez so far The real reason why everyone in the known universe thinks 1b is a big deal is because Breslow wants Devers to play 1b even though Devers is now the best hitting DH in the American League.

He can't play because Devers is a vastly better DH and because, as moonslav says, the Sox are knee deep in competent, competitive outfielders. I believe Breslow and folks above him have decided it's better to smear Devers--and they've done a good job of that--than to admit they have no idea what to do with Yoshida. All that said, I think Devers does have a modicum of fielding ability and could be a nice fit at 1b. What pisses me off is that this has nothing to do with the Casas injury. As I've said too many times, he was having a bad season (OPS .580) before the injury. Gonzalez's OPS is .785, so he should be a more than adequate replacement once he gets off the IL. Since Breslow caused all this and just might try to dump Devers, whom he's already branded as a malcontent and lingerer, If he does, he's giving up a huge bat, probably with very little in return.

So now he's given up 9 runs in 3 IP. Nobody's perfect.

No proof, per se, but a lot agreement that Cora told him he would not need his glove anymore. He was also told before the Bregman trade that 3b was his forever. Frankly, I think right now is just about perfect--Bregman at 3b and Devers the DH. I do not understand the rush to move him to 1b when he is hitting so well at the DH. Plus, as I keep saying, Gonzalez is a good fix at 1b. I also keep saying management wants Yoshida to DH because he's being paid a lot of money to nothing.