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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    WAR is an excellent descriptive stat, despite what the critics say. For those who think that WAR values defense too much, I would argue that WAR has it about right, and rather its critics don't value defense enough.
  2. Kimmi
    Well, to a certain extent. The good teams will tend to win more of their games by larger margins. The larger the difference in the score, the more skill and talent become a factor. In one run games, randomness is king. It's not necessarily that the ability of the two teams is equal, but rather that their ability is not the deciding factor in the outcome of the game. Bad teams have almost as good a chance of winning a one run game as a good team. In close games, things like missed strike/ball calls, bad bounces, a ball that was fair or foul by 1/2 an inch, a checked swing dribbler that results in a hit, etc. end up being the difference between who won or lost the game. These are things that have little to do with a team's skill.
  3. Kimmi
    I think too many people undervalue defense. I posted elsewhere that Pedroia is one player I would never bet against. He's heard all the speculation about how he has declined offensively. Nothing motivates him more than proving his critics wrong. It's what he's done his entire baseball career.
  4. Kimmi
    LOL Theo made his share of mistakes, but his philosophy on how to build a winning franchise was spot on. IMO, Crawford was Lucchino's doing. I don't think there is any way that Theo would have signed Crawford if he hadn't been more or less forced to do so by Lucchino. It's no secret that the two didn't see eye to eye when it came to baseball ops. Theo and Bill James are my idols.
  5. Kimmi
    I'm know that losing is a great motivator. I played sports. No one likes to lose. It's not luck in the sense of lucky rabbit's foot luck, it's luck in the sense of randomness. Good teams do tend to win slightly more close games, but usually have a lower winning % in close games than their overall winning %. In other words, the closer the score of the game, the more the winning % tends toward .500.
  6. Kimmi
    CP, I did not take any offense to your responses to me. We disagree, but you have responded respectfully to me. Luck definitely plays a roll in any baseball season. IMO, randomness/luck plays a much larger roll in baseball than most people realize. Don't get me started on the false notion that "good teams know how to win the close games". One and two run game outcomes are largely the result of luck.
  7. Kimmi
    I agree that they share part of the responsibility for 2014. They did not have a decent back up plan for Bogaerts/Middlebrooks and for JBJ should they get injured or underperform. Depending on three unproven kids with no viable back up plan did indeed contribute to the horrendous offensive year. That said, the fact that all 3 of them struggled, along with most of the rest of the line up is bad luck. No one could have foreseen the offense being as bad as it was. As far as either 2013 or 2014 being flukes or not, all I'm saying is that out of the 2 years, I would say that the outcome of 2013 was more expected than the outcome of 2014. So, if either of those years is to be considered a fluke, it would be the latter.
  8. Kimmi
    I consider some of his moves to be genius, though he has not earned his "Theo" status yes. ;-)
  9. Kimmi
    Koji indeed had a great year, but it's not like he sucked before that and the great year came out of nowhere. In 2012, his BB/9 and K/BB rates were better than they were in 2013. In other words, the great year should not have been unexpected or considered lucky.
  10. Kimmi
    I don't know why those things would be so unexpected. Nava, ok. Maybe his performance was unexpected. For the most part, the rest of the guys did what the FO knew they were capable of doing. Except for Middlebrooks.
  11. Kimmi
    That to me is good planning on the part of the FO. While I thought the 2014 team was going to be a true contender as well, what the team lacked was some quality depth on the left side of the infield and CF. Even so, I would say that 2014 was kind of the perfect storm of just about everything that could go wrong offensively. Bad luck in 2014.
  12. Kimmi
    I'm not saying the planets aligned. I'm saying that it was not a fluke that the Sox won the WS in 2013. I'm saying it was more of a fluke that the Sox came in last place in 2014. And if the Sox win the WS this year without an "ace", it won't be a fluke. A lot of things worked out well in 2013, but at the same time, many things did not work out as planned. Credit the FO for building a team with enough depth to overcome the bad breaks.
  13. Kimmi
    The problem I have with people saying that the stars aligned perfectly, etc. is that it makes it sound like winning the WS was just dumb luck. This team won the WS because they were a good team with good depth, not because they were lucky. Again, the team had a lot of things go right, but IMO, not any more so than most teams that win the WS. Give Ben and the FO some credit. It was a managerial stroke of genius that Ben assembled a BP that had enough depth to withstand the injuries/ineffectiveness of Bailey and Hanrahan.
  14. Kimmi
    It sounds like a great idea. Unfortunately, for a multitude of reasons, I would probably be unable to make it. I have always thought it would be cool to meet the people that you've known on a forum.
  15. Kimmi
    Wow, I thought I was bad going to bed at 10. Are you one of those guys who is up at like 3 am?
  16. Kimmi
    Well, if the stars had aligned perfectly, wouldn't Hanrahan and Bailey have worked out? When you have to go to your #3 guy on the depth chart to be your closer, everything is not going right for the team.
  17. Kimmi
    Any team that wins the WS has more things go right for them during the season than they have go wrong. Baseball is such a random game that you need to have "luck" on your side if you're going to win it all. The 2013 Sox certainly had their share of good breaks. That said, I disagree that the "stars were perfectly aligned" or that winning it all in 2013 was a fluke. Did I expect a 97 win team? No, but I thought it was very much within the realm of possibility for them to win in the low 90s. The 2013 was a well constructed team with depth. They were fortunate in that most players stayed relatively healthy and performed to expectations. Because of their depth, they were able to overcome what adversity they did face. I think that could be said any team that goes deep into the postseason. I would like to see another pitcher added before this season starts. But ace or no ace, this year's team will have to stay relatively healthy and have more good breaks than bad in order to play into October. IMO, the depth is there, provided that the injuries/underperformances do not get ridiculous.
  18. Kimmi
    I really like the 6pm start time. It fits in nicely with my pre-summer 10 pm bed time.
  19. Kimmi
    Thank you for the welcome. I don't know Emmz, but I hope she returns. Baseball forums need more female posters, IMO. Of course, sometimes it's hard to know who is male and who is female by a poster's user name. I've been posting for a while (since 2009) on other forums. I used to post with Bellhorn and Fred at Sawxheads until that forum kind of fell apart. Bellhorn is one of my favorite posters. Fred, OTOH, I almost never agree with. LOL But I have nothing personal against him.
  20. Kimmi
    He played a little before my time, so I never got to see him play. He sounds like a genuinely good man, along with being a great baseball player. RIP
  21. Kimmi
    Sure his defense makes up for the decline in his offense. Pedroia was a 4.4 WAR player last season, well worth his AAV.
  22. Kimmi
    LOL Much more direct and to the point than my response.
  23. Kimmi
    Maybe I missed your point. I just think that if you're going to make some claims, you should be able to back them up. I don't mean you personally, but you in the general sense. Maybe that doesn't always mean with stats, but I think it usually does. For instance, if someone claims that Jeter was a decent defender, I'm going to disprove that with stats. He was horrible defensively. The response I usually get is something along the lines of "why don't you try watching a game sometime?". Sorry, but I have to call BS on that.
  24. Kimmi
    If the big arm panned out and the Sox flourished, then yes, the fans would eventually come to embrace the move. I still think it would be a PR nightmare for a while though. It's a move I just can't see happening. Pedroia means too much to the Sox and their fans. I don't necessarily think Pedroia is in decline either. Just that the possibility is a valid concern. At this point it's hard to know how much injuries played a part. I wouldn't bet against him. Regardless, his defense will be much needed this season.
  25. Kimmi
    This team is as much a contender as any other team in the division. More so than most.
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