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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    LOL We're going to win 100 games. It's inevitable.
  2. Kimmi
    I disagree. Your eyes will lie to you. I don't care how good of a scout anyone is, or how much experience he/she has. Your eyes will lie to you. And bias is a huge factor in what your eyes tell you.
  3. Kimmi
    Well, it depends on what "older" methods of evaluation you're talking about. If it's 'Wins' for pitchers, for instance, then you're right. Saber types are not going to give much slack to that method of evaluation because quite frankly, it stinks.
  4. Kimmi
    Absolute truth here.
  5. Kimmi
    A traditionalist is someone who continues to believe conventional wisdom despite the fact that the stats say otherwise. Believing that clutch exists or believing the idea that good teams know how to win the close games are two such examples. Conventional wisdom regarding lineups and base stealing are other examples. In other words, traditionalists may say that stats are important or useful, but in their eyes, the stats are only important or useful to the extent that they do not contradict what they already believe.
  6. Kimmi
    I like that quote. That said, with me, the math is not boring. My two favorite topics: baseball and math.
  7. Kimmi
    Mental issues absolutely affect performance. No one is debating that.
  8. Kimmi
    We are reaching 70 degrees today, and will be having some more snow/sleet tomorrow. Go figure. I think I'll go camp out on my own lawn today, and soak up some warmth.
  9. Kimmi
    Fred, to be fair, you say the same thing about ST just about every year.
  10. Kimmi
    LOL What is it with the 'g' looking like a 'q' sometimes? I thought I was the only one who was buqqed by that. LOL It's things like this that keep me awake at night.
  11. Kimmi
    Fred, stop with the Boy Scout camp business. You have no idea what kind of camp Farrell and the Red Sox run. Oh, but here's someone who does have an idea: "Porcello said the Tigers work hard too, but he couldn't believe the focus level in Red Sox camp. Said nobody here takes it easy." Imagine that.
  12. Kimmi
    OTOH, how awesome does our pitching look?!!!
  13. Kimmi
    OK, you got me there. But you Canadians really do need to learn how to spell.
  14. Kimmi
    I'm not trying to hate on Ortiz, but take a look at his postseason numbers by year. Yes, he has had some monster postseasons. He has also had postseasons with the following slash lines: .276/.276/.379 .191/.283/.362 .186/.327/.349 .083/.083/.083 So what is happening in those postseasons? Where is the clutch?
  15. Kimmi
    LOL Yes, I can see why traditionalists would be offended to be traditionalists. They should be. I'm just wondering if I'm still on your lawn.
  16. Kimmi
    Yes, they do. And I know where you're going with this. Have I told you how you can be so annoying with your logic sometimes? The studies that I reference use many years of data and many players worth of data to make the sample sizes significant. Clutch, or lack thereof, is not a repeatable skill.
  17. Kimmi
    I love you. That is all.
  18. Kimmi
    Stats are not bouncing in my head when I'm watching a game either. Well, not usually. When I'm watching a game, the emotional side of me takes over. I'm a fan just like anyone else.
  19. Kimmi
    Yes, we can make statements like the above. The numbers back those assertions up. A player that we often consider clutch isn't performing any better in those clutch situations than he would in a typical at bat. He is simply performing as he normally does.
  20. Kimmi
    I think a common misconception among traditionalists is that the analytic people don't really understand the game or that they can't truly appreciate and enjoy baseball. In most cases, nothing could be further from the truth. I have always had a good understanding and appreciation of the game, but I'm telling you, after I was introduced to the world of sabermetrics, that understanding and appreciation has grown tenfold. It absolutely has to be the two disciplines working together.
  21. Kimmi
    Well Bellhorn, SSS is a valid problem. It's not an excuse to not have to accept the notion of "clutch". And when that small sample is spread out over several seasons, it becomes even more of a problem. It's not really so much that stat geeks are saying that "clutch" doesn't exist. To date, however, they have dissected the data pretty much every way humanly possible, and have found no statistical evidence that being a clutch hitter is a repeatable skill. Clutch hits happen all the time, but being "clutch" is not a skill. Another difficulty lies in defining exactly what clutch is. Bill James even concedes that clutch may exist. There just hasn't been any proof to that effect yet.
  22. Kimmi
    At the risk of sounding really stupid, I don't know what you mean by being on your lawn.
  23. Kimmi
    While this is what should happen, in reality, it is often not what does happen. Right or wrong, a large part of the decision will be based on who has options. While I may not always like this, it makes sense. You want to keep as many options and as much flexibility on the roster as possible.
  24. Kimmi
    There are so many stats available at our fingertips, why anyone would choose not to use them is beyond me. It's amazing what kind of information is out there.
  25. Kimmi
    I agree, there are players who fold under pressure. I've played enough sports to know that. The players who cannot perform under pressure typically do not make it to the majors or if they do, they do not last very long. Players more or less will perform to their career norms in pressure situations, given a large enough sample size. Those players who we often consider to be clutch are not really clutch, they are just good hitters, period.
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