Kimmi

Here's the thing about acquiring Hamels. If the Sox rotation is as big a mess as some people are saying, Hamels, or any other single pitcher, is not going to be the difference maker. At this point, it would make sense to wait and see where we are in a couple of months. If the rotation has kept the team in the playoff hunt, then the FO needs to get us that top pitcher. If the team is out of it (which I don't foresee happening), then revamp for 2016.

Don't go all Fred on me Fred. And don't bail on that AL East title prediction. I'm counting on you to be my positive reinforcement this year! Playoffs, here we come!

A voice of reason. Thank you.

There is always some positive to be found. "While the end results haven't been glamorous, there are encouraging peripherals with the starters and they have combined for 66 GO / 31 FO" Even with Masterson's velocity down, he improved his groundball rate over his previous outing.

I'm not sure how the sky is falling already, when it's only spring training. Geez, these posts are depressing.

Fangraphs projections: IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR Rick Porcello 196.0 6.3 2.1 0.8 .307 71.1 % 3.79 3.70 3.2 Clay Buchholz 180.0 6.9 2.9 1.0 .304 70.5 % 4.13 4.08 2.1 Wade Miley 173.0 7.2 3.0 0.9 .308 71.5 % 4.03 3.93 2.1 Justin Masterson 167.0 7.3 4.0 0.8 .307 69.6 % 4.26 4.15 1.8 Joe Kelly 140.0 6.1 3.5 0.9 .303 70.1 % 4.35 4.37 1.1 Davenport Projections: G GS IP H R HR BB SO W L SV ERA WHIP WARP Rick Porcello 29 29 190.3 193 82 18 40 136 12 9 0 3.56 1.224 4.0 Wade Miley 31 31 192.3 192 96 20 75 155 11 11 0 4.14 1.388 2.4 Clay Buchholz 26 26 162.3 161 81 16 49 130 9 9 0 4.11 1.294 2.1 Justin Masterson 28 28 169.0 163 90 15 77 147 9 10 0 4.38 1.420 1.5 Joe Kelly 24 24 149.3 158 79 15 57 100 8 9 0 4.37 1.440 1.3 I don't think any of the projections are outrageously optimistic. We are projected to do well because of our offense. Sorry, that is hard to read. The columns are not lining up as intended.

I haven't seen anyone say that this will be a strong staff. They will likely be middle of the pack, solid enough to keep the team in most games.

I agree that if the rotation falls short, Ben will be heavily criticized. And as I said before, he will certainly share in some of the blame. I will also say up front that if the rotation fails, I will undoubtedly be here with my butt washing self defending his moves. I can understand why many people are not extremely confident in our rotation. The idea of not having a bonafide ace takes some getting used to. We have to remember that we are likely going to be depending on our offense to win games far more often than on our pitching. I'm not thrilled about that, but if it that strategy gets the job done, then all is good. A win is a win.

The AL East does not look that strong, which is one of the reasons, good or bad, that the Sox project so well. FWIW, the Sox are projected to be the #1 offense in baseball in terms of runs scored. Even if they fall short of that projection, they should still be very formidable, and good enough to carry our "ace-less" starting rotation.

I'm going with A. IMO, it's always much riskier having more than one rookie in your rotation. I am sure that some of those guys in group B will be up with the Sox at some point, but I don't want them as our projected starting 5. I am also fairly certain that the Sox will add a starting pitcher before the trade deadline.

The Sox pitchers are already singing praises for how many extra strikes Vazquez has gotten them. If nothing else, he certainly will instill some confidence in the pitching staff, which may enable them to be more effective in expanding the zone. Who knows how many runs he can actually save defensively, but to me, that is worth more than having a catcher who will provide more offense. I think the FO knows how important Vazquez' defense is.

What's going on with Ellsbury?

LOL That is not a very flattering picture of Clay.

Is this where I'm supposed to ask you for the chart? Look, we know that our rotation isn't going to be our strength. We still have just as good a chance, if not better, of making it to the postseason. IMO, the Sox can sustain some minor injury problems to their starters better than the Yanks can. We have the offense to cover for them.

Sure, the quality of innings pitched is important. This rotation won't be lights out, but they should be able to keep the team in most games to give the offense a chance to win. I would prefer the rotation be stronger at the expense of offense, but an average pitching staff with a potent offense can get the job done as well.

Which teams in the AL East do you think are stronger overall than the Sox?

An argument saying that the FO doesn't have a legitimate plan or that they don't know what they're doing is more baseless, if you ask me. We may not know what the plan is, but I can say with a great deal of certaintly that they have a plan, both short term and long term. They are not sitting around throwing darts at a dartboard. I can also say with a great deal of certaintly that their plan is backed up by tons of data and scouting reports.

If the team goes down in flames, Ben shares part of the blame, but I think there is some valid defense to his moves, even if they end up not working. All the main projection systems and most analysts favor the Sox to win the division. Not by much, but they are favored nonetheless. If they are projected on paper to be that good, then IMO, he's done a successful job this offseason. He can't control what happens on the field.

There have been some very encouraging reports regarding Bogaerts' defense so far. His range appears to be much improved over last year, and he's apparently making plays that he wouldn't have been able to last season. On a similar note, Fangraphs has the Sox defense projected to be 5th best in baseball this season, with 25 runs saved. The only below average defender projected is Bogaerts at -6 runs saved. He could prove to be better than that, however, if early reports are true.

I am a big fan of the Remy/Orsillo duo. I think they do a great job. I know some are annoyed by their shenanigans in the booth, but I think they're hilarious.

I'm not a big fan of the knuckleball pitcher, but I'm not understanding all the dislike for Steven Wright. He's not supposed to be a top of the rotation pitcher. He's slated to be a #6 guy, so you can't expect a sub 4 ERA. He appears to have developed more consistency, cutting his walk rate in half last year, albeit in a small sample. Also, the 'contrast in style' effect that Palodios mentioned could have an overall effect that makes him and the BP better than their individual talents. He's worth giving a shot to if Kelly's injury is indeed more serious than he's letting on.

No, it doesn't. And the division will be so close this year that one injury could mean the difference between playoffs or not.

None of us know for sure exactly what the FO strategy was or is. We're all just speculating and bouncing opinions off of each other. I don't know whether they executed plan A, plan B, plan C, or some other plan. All I'm saying is that I think they did a good job this offseason in assembling a playoff contending team. That's really all I can hope for as a fan. Things didn't work out exactly how I would have preferred they did. I wanted Lester back for one. For two, I would have preferred Headley over Sandoval. Nonetheless, I try to understand why the FO would make the moves that I disagree with. I'm guessing they know what they're doing a lot better than I do. And I am happy with the team that we have going into the season. You can have all the opinions you want. I just don't agree that the rationalizations are weak just because you don't happen to agree with them.

Kelly says that he felt much improved today. He may have his next start pushed back, but it really doens't sound serious. At this point, I am more concerned with Vazquez' arm soreness.

I agree with what Verducci is saying. Too many people are making too big a deal out of the "no ace" issue. As the article states, this is not going to be a top 3 rotation, but with the offense and the defense that the Sox have, our middle of the pack rotation should be fine. Also, I think too many people downplay the value of pitchers who can give the team 200 innings.