Kimmi

I can see it both ways. On the one hand, there's nothing wrong with having to compete for the job, as you said. On the other hand, there's something to be said for giving the kid a vote of confidence. In this particular case, Swihart knows that Vazquez will be waiting in the wings. Knowing that, Swihart is going to compete hard anyway. As far as Farrell hanging on to a player too long, Dombrowski made a comment today regarding Hanley showing a sense of urgency. IMO, Dombrowski will not allow Farrell to hang on to any struggling player, not just Hanley, for too long.

I am likely taking a break from fantasy baseball this year, not that I have ever played in this league. It stresses me out too much. I know it shouldn't, but it does. As far as your signature goes, you are the king. I'm just not sure of what.

Nice! I am envious.

UN pretty much explained the reasoning behind putting your best hitter in terms of OBP in the leadoff spot. The best hitter in terms of power (Papi) should bat 4th. If you put your best hitter 1st, chances are that the % of PAs that the 4 hitter comes up with runners on base will be even higher. Another key factor in having the best hitter in the leadoff spot is that he will get more PAs than he would being in the #3 spot.

What is this? Optimism?

When it comes to baseball, I am very confident in my opinions, because they are usually very well-informed opinions. When they aren't, like my opinion on Pete Rose's reinstatement, I will state so. Also, many of my "opinions" are not opinions, but rather facts. For instance, your best hitter should not be batting 3rd. That's a fact, not an opinion.

Put it this way. There were a lot of question marks on the team going into the season. There were equally a lot of question marks on the Yankees going into the season. Our question marks all went against us. Most of the Yankees questions marks broke in their favor. The Sox had more than their share of bad breaks, not only last year but in 2014 as well.

Or you might have been talking about me. It's hard to know when you make general statements like that. I'm just setting the record straight, that I don't post BS. I'm guessing that you are not going to consider the posts that you agree with to be BS. That narrows it down pretty well.

I agree that some players injuries are not as surprising as others. Injury history or not, having a player get injured is still bad luck. Having several players get injured, along with the underperformances, is bad luck. I don't think anyone can realistically and honestly say that the team did not have more than it's fair share of bad breaks.

Which is precisely why you don't put someone like Ortiz in the #3 hole.

The vast majority of those PAs (535) were from the #4 hole, which again, has more meaningful PAs than any other lineup position. Even if that were not the case, there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. However, the idea that your best hitter should bat 3rd is not true.

I'm going to have to agree with UN that you are making stuff up. No one has ever said that GMs should forego traditional scouting and rely solely on some geek with a computer.

There is a lot of research and data on the topic of lineups. The bottom line is that line ups really don't matter as much as most people think they do. The difference between the "optimal" line up and the "typical" line up might be on game over an entire season. Switching the #3 and #4 batters is negligible. That said, managers are not constructing their line ups correctly. Conventional thinking as far as line up construction is incorrect.

1. The most important factor in scoring runs is not making outs. OBP has a higher correlation with scoring runs than any other single stat. OPS correlates better, but OPS is a combination of OBP and SLG. 2. The #4 batter comes up to bat in more meaningful situations than any other lineup position. 3. The problem with Hanley and Pablo last season was not that they "clogged up the basepaths" but rather that they just weren't getting on base. The team played better without them in the lineup because they had OBPs of .291 and .292, respectively. They can't run the bases or score runs if they're not getting on base. 4. The notion of lineup protection is mostly hogwash, as I've said before.

This is true, but on average, the #3 batter still comes up with 2 outs and 0 on more than any other batting position. Some of that is probably due to managers insisting on having speed in the leadoff spot over OBP.

I didn't say that Papi in the #1 hole was the best spot for him, just that it made more sense than putting him in the #3 slot. He has the SLG numbers, so he's better suited for batting 4th. You put your two best hitters in the !st and 4th spots, with more emphasis on OBP in the leadoff spot, and more emphasis on SLG in the cleanup spot. That said, in terms of scoring runs, the single most important factor is still not making an out. Getting the leadoff guy on base is more important to scoring in an inning than having someone batting 3rd who can drive him in.

You may be baffled by what I post, but I guarantee you it's not BS.

I don't think the Bailey comparison was used to determine what Lester would be worth. I think the Bailey comparison was used because Lester had supposedly said he would accept a contract similar to Bailey's, had the Sox offered him that rather than the ridiculous offer they gave him.

First off, if you take any individual player's underperformance or injury, it may not be unexpected. The fact that pretty much everything went wrong is bad luck. 1. Hanley getting injured may not be a surprise. His awful hitting and his -2 WAR was very unexpected. 2. Masterson stinking is no surprise, but there was good reason to believe that he could rebound coming off an injury. Either way, it's the fact that he, Porcello, and Kelly all stunk to the extent that they did. 3. I didn't say Pedroia underperformed, I said that he was injured. Any player getting injured is bad luck. 4. I didn't mention anything about Taz or Koji burning out. I said that everyone in our BP stunk besides them. When you throw out reliever after reliever into games, you'd expect at least one of them to perform well. It's the philosophy of acquiring as many arms as you can and see what sticks. Somebody should have stuck. The fact that none of them did, and the extent to which they stunk, is bad luck. 5. And yet, when Napoli went to the Rangers, his batting line went from .207/.307/.386 to .295/.396/.513. Where was that when he was with the Sox? Bad luck. When pretty much everything breaks against your favor, that is bad luck.

The widespread underperformances and the degree of those underperformances was certainly bad luck. Hanley and Pablo both playing below replacement level is bad luck in and of itself. Masterson, Kelly, and Porcello underperformed by quite a bit. Pretty much every BP arm that Farrell threw out there besides Taz and Koji absolutely stunk. We lost our #1 and #2 starting catchers. Pedroia was injured. Napoli underperformed. I'd say the team had some pretty bad luck.

Yes, that's what the list says. When filling out a line up, your best hitters should go into those batting spots in respective order. Best hitter = #1 spot. Second best hitter = #4 spot. Third best hitter = #2 spot. Fourth best hitter = #5 spot. Fifth best hitter = #3 spot. I believe you're reading the list backwards.

Batting Papi 1st is actually a much better idea than batting him 3rd. However, that idea so strongly bucks conventional (do you like that word better than traditional?) thinking that no manager is likely to do it. Either way, it doesn't make that much of a difference. Because it makes so little difference, a manager is better off creating a line up that alternates right handed and left handed batters, and/or one that puts hitters in a spot that they feel comfortable batting in.

Your first sentence is true, then the rest of it is traditional wisdom but is false. The notion of lineup protection is mostly a myth. Changes in the lineup make very little difference. I don't recall the exact number, but switching the #3 and #4 hitters might make a difference of 1 or 2 runs over the course of an entire season.

In terms of the importance of not making an out, ie OBP, the lineup spots rank #1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9.

It depends on how you classify best hitter. The #4 hitter comes up to bat in the most important situations out of all 9 spots. He should be your best hitter with power, or your best hitter with more of an emphasis on SLG. Your #1 guy should be your best hitter with more of an emphasis on OBP.