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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    That is actually not the craziest of ideas. Batting Papi 4th makes more sense because he also has the high SLG %, but batting him leadoff would make a lot more sense then putting a speedy guy who can't get on base in that slot. The problem with the 'optimal' line ups is that they so strongly buck conventional thinking that no one is going to do it. Can you imagine the outrage if Farrell put Papi in the lead off spot? That said, we are starting to see some hints of it, particularly with batters we are seeing in the #2 spot.
  2. Kimmi
    This is correct. To quote Kalkman, who wrote an excellent article on line ups: Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs: #1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9 So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.
  3. Kimmi
    Actually, the old school of thought, which in incorrect, is that you put your speedy guys in the lead off spot, regardless of OBP. For the lead off spot, OBP is king. Speedy guys actually serve a better purpose further down in the line up, in front of your singles hitters, rather than in front of the power hitters. Thank you for the kind words.
  4. Kimmi
    Feeling good after last night's win. Let's keep it going. #Slashermojo Go Sox!
  5. Kimmi
    Thank you for the sensible post.
  6. Kimmi
    LOL It is funny to read the game thread after the fact. Not that I'm faulting anyone because I certainly understand the emotional reactions that take place during the game. It's funny nonetheless.
  7. Kimmi
    After the haul that the Yankees got for a 2 month rental in Chapman, Cashman is feeling greedy.
  8. Kimmi

    The Cubs

    Kimmi replied to iortiz's topic in Other Baseball

    I agree that Theo has a good sized ego. I don't think he necessarily wanted total autonomy, but rather he needed people above him who agreed with his philosophy. If their philosophies had been more in sync, I think autonomy more or less happens.
  9. Kimmi
    There aren't three lefties in a row. I thought I read something about opposing managers salivating at our lineup seeing 3 righties followed by 3 lefties. Never mind. LOL
  10. Kimmi
    Average runs scored per game and average runs allowed per game is actually a very good indicator of how good a team is. Pythagorean W-L does a good job of predicting a team's remaining season record. In other words, it doesn't matter if a team scores 12 runs one game and 2 runs the next. The average of 7 runs/game (over a large enough sample, of course) is a good measure of the team's performance.
  11. Kimmi
    Price is definitely not having as bad a season as his ERA suggests. However, I do think that Price's fWAR is a little fluky due to him being one of the top strike out pitchers, yet also being the worst (I think he has improved to 3rd worst) pitcher in terms of hits allowed. While there is a lot of value to Ks and the # of innings pitched, I don't think he's been worth $25.4 million. That said, I posted a couple of days ago that if I'm predicting the rest of the season out for Wright, Porcello, and Price, I'm going with Price being the best, then Porcello, then Wright.
  12. Kimmi
    It's been a while since I looked into it, but I know that a few years back there were only 3 things that had a positive correlation to post season success. One of those was a shut down, power closer.
  13. Kimmi
    The thing to remember about making any baseball decision is that the effect of the move is largely offset by a counter effect. (There's a term for this in economics, but I can't remember what it is.) Therefore, the impact of making a lineup switch is not nearly as great as you might think it would be. Over the course of a season, switching 2 spots like #1 and #2 might be 2 runs. Then again, it might do more harm than good by taking players out of their comfort zones. If our offense scuffles for a longer period, then it might make sense to shake things up. For the most part, however, they've been getting it done. Bosoxmal does have a point about three lefties in a row.
  14. Kimmi
    Last night's 9th inning is a good example of why high K pitchers are good. Ziegler can be very good at inducing a ground ball and getting hitters to hit in double plays. But when the ball is put in play, you are at the mercy of the baseball 'luck' gods and your defense. If you strike the batter out, you know it's an out, except on the rare occasion when the batter reaches on a 3rd strike passed ball.
  15. Kimmi
    I think 'failure' is a bit harsh, but I really can't argue with your overall point. Outside of a couple of performances, he has not been an ace.
  16. Kimmi
    I really do appreciate the amount of baseball history that many of our posters here have experienced.
  17. Kimmi
    Haha! Don't get me started....
  18. Kimmi
    LOL That's actually an interesting thought about the 'sudden death' HR Derby. But I agree 100%. Baseball does not need a time limit. There are so many discussions about games being too long, but I've never had a problem with it.
  19. Kimmi
    That's a good way to put it.
  20. Kimmi
    Trust me when I say that you are lucky to have missed it. I had been handling the recent losses pretty well, but last night's loss did me in.
  21. Kimmi
    Well after a restless couple of hours of sleep, I am feeling a little better. The close losses, especially the ones that occur late, are the hardest to take. There are some positives to take away in the midst of all this frustration. 1. The recent starts from Pomeranz, Rodriguez, and Price are encouraging. 2. Though we've lost 6 out of 7, we are only 2.5 games back. I realize that just 8 days ago, we were 1/2 up, but that's the ebb and flow of any season. Think of it this way. On June 29th, we were 5.5 games back. We had a net gain of 3 games in one month. Let's do that again over the next two months and we are good to go.
  22. Kimmi
    As to the idea of limiting pitching changes, bad idea.
  23. Kimmi
    Well, I don't like replay period. I want it trashed regardless of the effect it has on the length of the game. But I can agree with your point about giving managers a time limit to decide. They should also limit the actual review to 45 seconds. In the Angels game 2 nights ago, a challenged call easily took 10 minutes, probably closer to 15 minutes. Scioscia 'argued' with the umps for a good while before they finally agreed to review the play. The review itself took over 6 minutes. Then after the call on the field was upheld, the umps took more time to explain the ruling to Scioscia. Ridiculous.
  24. Kimmi
    Get rid of instant replay.
  25. Kimmi
    I think my blood pressure is back to normal now, though the tension remains in my neck and shoulders. Why do I put myself through this? I really need a new hobby.
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