Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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While sample size issues and the definition of clutch are valid points, I think both points are overstated in defending the existence of clutch. Despite the two aforementioned points, the evidence is pretty convincing, if you ask me. It would be a different story if the studies were divided or even 20% of them were able to find some statistical evidence that clutch existed.
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4/8 Red Sox @ Tigers
Kimmi replied to NativeBostonian's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Spot on. Once we get everyone back and healthy, we will look much better. They said that even Beni puked during the game today, but stayed in. Let's hope JBJ's knee doesn't keep him out for any length of time. -
Yeah, the loss kind of stole some of Pablo's thunder from yesterday's game. He would have been the game hero if we had won.
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Ha. Actually, randomness is very frustrating. There's nothing like hitting a ball right on the screws right at a defender, then watching your opponent get a check swing dribbler for a base hit.
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You know it.
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Amen.
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There is evidence that some batters change their behavior when at bat in high pressure situations. Batters who do so successfully are good and smart hitters to begin with, like Papi.
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Ha ha. You are now talking about something that is out of my comfort zone.
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Of course, and hence my insistence on the large part that randomness plays in the game. However, 'hitting' is more repeatable and predictable than 'clutch' is. It depends on what aspect of hitting you're talking about as to how strong the year to year correlation is. Batting average has a year to year correlation in the .45 ish range. As we all know, BA is not the best metric to use. OBP and SLG have year to year correlations in the .600 range, depending on what set of data you use. This is a fairly strong correlation. Clutch statistics have a near 0 correlation, something like .02 to .04. Meaning none. Even BABIP has a correlation of .3 or .4, again depending on the set of data you use. The higher the correlation, either positive or negative, the more that stat indicates 'true talent' as opposed to luck or randomness. Incidentally, the three true outcomes of a PA, Ks, BBs, and HRs all correlate very well from year to year.
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Enjoy your granddaughter's track meet.
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Blowing a lead late is the worst way to lose a game. I think I would have been better off if the Sox had just lost 4-0. While I believe that the closer should not always be saved for the 9th inning, I also strongly agree that Farrell has to manage for the season and not for one early game. As you said, somebody needs to step up. Joe Kelly needs to trust his fastball.
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MacPherson made a good point in his tweet. Farrell did not go with his closer for 4 outs and got burned. Ausmus went with his closer for 4 outs and got burned. Baseball is a funny game.
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Besides Vazquez, JBJ is the other player that I've always pulled the hardest for. That said, I pretty much pull hard for all of our players. Others have talked about not getting attached to players, but I can't help it. I get too emotionally invested in these guys for my own good.
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Varitek was the man. I'd still have him behind the plate if I were manager.
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I like Leon too. You remember the quote I posted about him not playing in the WBC because the team came first. If he ends up becoming our permanent starting catcher, I won't be unhappy.
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It's crazy how bad the clubhouse has been hit, on top of the 2 players who are on the bereavement list. They said something today about it being 3 different strains of the flu (or something flu like) running through the clubhouse.
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The problem is that you're making a strawman argument. To my knowledge, no one has ever argued that something can't happen if it can't be proven mathematically. I know that I certainly have not. In fact, I have posted many times that there are many things baseball related that I believe in that I can't prove mathematically. It has also been stated many times that there is no definitive proof that clutch doesn't exist. However, the statistical evidence against clutch being a repeatable and predictable 'skill' or attribute is pretty strong.
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Maybe his delayed start to the season will be a blessing in disguise. Maybe he will be better rested for the postseason.
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I hope so too. I was never a fan of the contract, but I am really pulling for the guy. IMO, he got a lot of undeserved attacks on his character.
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No he hasn't been a gold glover, but he's been average to slightly above average until his horrid and fluky 2015. I think he can return to that pre-2015 level.
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LOL You'll be surprised to hear that there actually was quite a bit of randomness or bad luck involved. Price's peripherals are much better than his ERA.
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I disagree. I don't think we had to go pitcher shopping this off season. With Price's injury, it's a good thing that we did, in hindsight, but I don't think we needed to at the time.
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Trust me, I'm not selling Leon short. I was the one praising his defense when we acquired him, while most here complained about how we picked up a catcher who wasn't good enough to be another team's 3rd stringer.
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I don't have anything against Leon. IMO, he's a very good defender in his own right, maybe as good as or better than Vazquez will be going forward. That said, based off of his minor league reputation and his limited numbers in 2014, I think that Vazquez can reach 'elite' status as a defender. He won me over in 2014 and I've been pulling for him ever since. I won't be upset if Leon keeps the starting job over Vazquez based on merit. I'm not pulling against Leon in any way. I'm just pulling for Vazquez.
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That was a good game with a very frustrating ending. I hate losing games in the late innings, especially after the team comes from behind like that. That said, way to go Panda. The great thing about baseball, (besides it's randomness MVP), is that there's almost always another game the next day.
