Kimmi

The stat geeks have diced this up pretty much every way imaginable, including by best second half performance, best run differential, best team WAR, and strongest September. Still, no correlation. Five and seven game series are just way too small a sample to be significant. Betting odds? That is something very different.

Bloom has emphasized the importance of collaboration. He is not going to be making decisions on his own, even if he were given complete autonomy from the FO. That was one of the reported issues with Dombrowski.

I would hope that JD and his agent have had these discussions with the FO, and that the FO has been up front with JD if they intend to trade him. I agree that if he thinks he's going to be traded, he would be more inclined to opt out. I'm not sure that the FO is leaning in that direction though.

Don't even say that in jest.

I will miss Mitch, Holt, and Porcello.

I would not sign Porcello for more than 2 years. If he would take $16M/2, I'd do that in a heartbeat.

!!! People like to refer to this as coupon clipping, but this is the way to go. Find those 2nd tier players who will provide great value to the team.

I would be a fan based on his name alone.

Absolutely.

Isn't this a large part of why they brought Bloom in?

I don't know how many times the team with the worst record has won the WS, and I'm too lazy to go through year by year to find out. I am sure that it's not as many times as the best team has won. The stat that correlates best with postseason wins is regular season wins, so the better teams do have a very slight advantage, with the emphasis being on 'very slight'. It's not enough of an advantage to be statistically significant. I posted before that the best team in the playoffs each year has a winning % of 55.7% in the postseason, while the worst team has a winning % of 53.2%. In a 5 game series, that equates to the best team winning 2.785 games, on average, and the worst team winning 2.66 games. In a 7 game series, the split would be 3.899 to 3.724. If all series went the distance for a total of 19 games, the split would be 10.583 to 10.108. That's virtually a coin flip. All that said, the bottom line for me is that there is no correlation between regular season anything and post season wins. That means that post season wins are very largely random. Until somebody can provide me with a statistical correlation to postseason wins, you are not going to convince me otherwise. And with all due respect to Moon, listing examples in support of your opinion is not showing a statistical correlation. So, for the 3rd time, I am bowing out of this debate. Until, of course, you pull me back in with another question.

They are going with a more analytic approach. Bush is that guy. LeVangie was not.

One has nothing to do with the other.

Good pick up by the way. Depth, depth, depth.

I don't know who can afford to sign Mookie, but a similar example is Cano signing with the Mariners.

I am pulling for the Nats, and I have found myself wanting them to win more and more as the series has progressed. That said, I have nothing against the Astros. May the best team win.

And this is what I simply don't get. There are some things more important than making the most money.

Just Say No

I am going to say no on JD opting out.

Early betting odds have the Red Sox at 12/1 to win the World Series next year, behind only the Astros at 5/1 and the Yankees and Nationals, both at 8/1 odds. LOL

It would stink to lose JD's bat, but having him opt out wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

No, it really doesn't.

LOL I'm out too Tyler.

And yet, the wildcard team has won just as many WS as the team with the best record.

But it doesn't really matter which way you look at it. Nothing correlates to postseason wins.