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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Not their first rounder - they had a bottom 10 record which exempted them.
  2. sk7326
    In chats, Law noted the Red Sox are 24 but trending up ... the problem is that a lot of that trend is built on a very good looking 2017 draft ... but those kids will have to deliver results in pro ball. Right now the laurels are largely based on amateur pedigree and short season.
  3. sk7326
    The last team to integrate is not a perfect indicator (the Yankees were 2nd to last!). But the "open secret" quota on African-American players on the roster was more problematic. He was a racist - and he was also a tremendous boon to cancer research. People are multitudes. One of the great thrills of Pedro and Ortiz were being the first Red Sox since Tiant to really break through the team's historic lilly-whiteness.
  4. sk7326
    Yes, I am sure if Dombrowski knew that the Marlins would be sold and their owner and GM were willing to sell off All-Star players for sacks of potatoes and magic beans, he probably holds these guys a bit longer.
  5. sk7326
    Kinda sorta - if Dombrowski showed up, did his analysis of the farm, identified Benintendi and Devers as the keepers and decided everything else was better sourced by the major league team, at least within the time frame which matters here. Espinoza and Kopech were ultimately dealt because they were pitchers, and come with an inherently much wider range of outcomes than position players. I was not a fan of the Pomeranz trade, but the idea of seeing a toolsy single-A pitcher with a wiry frame and saying "there's a lot of risk there" is pretty defensible. Moncada they looked at him in 2016 and clearly decided he was not the best 3B prospect in the org - so time to use him to get Sale.
  6. sk7326
    Oh I disagree there - I mean the Cubs put a ton of chips on the table in 2016, because they knew they had a great team ... and those players deserved the best possible swing at a title. Even if it didn't work - it was the right thing to do. Life is precious, and you have to pounce on opportunities. This is not a defense of "Bagwell for Andersen" moves which were just a poor use of resources. The Sox built this team the right way - it is hard to have an issue with using blocked minor leaguers and lower level pitchers to try to fill in some gaps. It is on Henry to prioritize finding kids for the next generation (and to open up the checkbook for the stars of today when appropriate).
  7. sk7326
    (those teams all stink at the major league level presently)
  8. sk7326
    Chavis absolutely could impact the team by 2019, and late 2018 is not nuts (though unlikely)
  9. sk7326
    Would we? You are then divining a Sale, Kimbrel, Pomeranz free world ... the international signing thing is a problem too, but more in that it reduces the pool of baseball players more generally. But the Red Sox still got a lot done last year, but of course there was the tragic ending. Espinoza is a fascinating prospect, but he will now end up missing almost 2 full seasons without a great track record of turning the tools into outs.
  10. sk7326
    Yes, although (and this we don't know re: Henry) Ilitch wanted that - Dombrowski was doing his job. And Dombrowski's right hand man got promoted after Dombrowski left, so it's not like Ilitch wanted to destroy the infrastructure there. If Henry wants Dombrowski to keep the farm fresh with some ceiling, it will happen. I would be surprised if Henry gave him the same mandate. My theory (and just my opinion here) is that Dombrowski was brought in here to help the big league club yes, but also to take all of this minor league talent amassed by the org and make sense of it. And - so far - Dombrowski has been right in terms of the kids he has backed and the others he has dealt. It looks like the 2016 and 2017 drafts brought in a lot of kids who could move - there is the raw material there. But there is a lot that has to go right, a bit more than you'd prefer - but probably what you have to live with given draft positions and so forth. Really - it is about the development staff and the kiddos themselves.
  11. sk7326
    It's ultimately age and production (with age thresholds for pitchers and catchers being older). And even that is tempered some - since winning only actually matters at the big league level. AAA is definitely is production - since AAA is essentially a big league taxi squad nowadays. Heck, if you're a team with a AAA PCL affiliate, often you are better off just skipping pitchers past AAA altogether.
  12. sk7326
    True - but the Sox still benefitted from unsignability in 2017 ... whom the rules hurt more (sadly - and kind of funny given the draft's alleged purpose) are the smaller market teams, who actually could throw a lot of money at this while other teams focused on big league talent. The farm IS light years behind 2013-2015. That was inevitable. The only playoff team in the ESPN Top 10 for org rankings is #9. The Red Sox graduated a lot of the 2013-2015 group and traded the blocked ones for big league stuff ... which is how you'd want to do it, no? The 2017 draft was productive, now we'll see what 2018 does - and if any of these kids make leaps. It's exciting.
  13. sk7326
    Some guys can do well, others can do badly - stop the presses The interesting piece from the org writeup was that it looks like the org has brought in a lot of ceiling. There is a lot less probability than in prior years - but the talent is there. Now the hope is some of the kids figure out things, third pitches, turning over lineups and such (for pitchers). This is why the falling of the minor league team has not worried me yet - the bottom of the org rankings have some bad systems (Giants) - but also systems who have been insanely productive in recent years (Cubs, Royals, Sox) and who need to reload. The question is whether the Red Sox are doing so - and certainly the early returns on the 2017 draft and international signings are positive, or at least intriguing.
  14. sk7326
    And today - the Red Sox deep dive http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22253672/keith-law-complete-guide-al-east-prospects-yankees-loaded-red-sox-re-stocking ORG TOP 10 1. Jason Groome, LHP (#30) 2. Michael Chavis, 3B (#76) 3. Tanner Houck, RHP (Just missed) 4. Bryan Mata, RHP 5. Sam Travis, 1B 6. Alex Scherff, RHP 7. Jake Thompson, RHP 8. Cole Brannen, OF 9. Travis Lakins, RHP 10. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP Non Top-100 Prospects
  15. sk7326
    And we will keep some and figure out the rest. We might even trade one of them! This ain't college basketball. If the Sox hit a cliff it will be their fault.
  16. sk7326
    The Cubbies won a World Series where they were outs away from being buried - you know better than to judge entirely on the outcome of the tournament. The Red Sox window is no less open - prime guys same age, yada yada ... the gap is just not nearly as big. This stuff happens all the time - teams are bad, they play kids, the kids get better, they have to restock. Since the Red Sox are rich, they have more means to buttress some of the effects, more "calculated risk" than a cliff. For instance, 2014 and 2015 were bad teams - but the Red Sox had lots of reasons to think they would be good. The cliff, such as it is, will be teams where more things have to go right (but not an unreasonable amount of them). If the Red Sox cannot reload, it is because they picked the wrong players.
  17. sk7326
    I don't know - years of control is a big deal here. 2 years of Chris Sale was bound to be pricey. And the teams dealing them were actually trying to get players back - unlike Miami (the Yelich deal was the first one which got real upside back). The Kimbrel deal was steep, but paid for with a guy who was getting blocked. The Pomeranz deal was again paid for with a low-A pitcher - super talented, but a risk because all pitchers are risks.
  18. sk7326
    We have too many quality under 28 players to say that.
  19. sk7326
    not denying them - just look at them as something to fix, and holding out judgment on whether it will happen. At some point you have to make choices - and ultimately everyone is here to win. The Sox are not in a place that most good teams don't get to at some point. You have a good farm, the kids graduate and you have to replace. There seems to be more uncertainty about the replacements - but things change quickly. What Dombrowski has done well on that front is deal with the farm aggressively - in terms of identifying who to deal, and who to keep. We'll see what happens. The 2015 sell off was bad because of what you said - that was a missed opportunity.
  20. sk7326
    Royals were #26 ... again the vestiges of making moves to win 2 pennants in a row. At least if you are going to trade for the big league roster, at least you are stocking a team that plays in October.
  21. sk7326
    Org rankings ... #24 (down from 16) http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22197478/keith-law-2018-ranking-all-30-farm-systems
  22. sk7326
    Fair point on Shaw - Margot looks like a legit starter ... Moncada has not proven to be replacement level yet, although he probably could be ... again, I think Dombrowski's view is a fair one, that you keep the stars and everything else is fair game ... and the guys he has chosen were the highest ceiling of the bunch.
  23. sk7326
    All true - which is a bummer. There is - so far - exactly one major league starter from that pile. Dombrowski chose to keep a couple of the kiddos - and so far it has looked like the right answer.
  24. sk7326
    When the price gets high, you pay some of them - no farm system stays indefinitely stocked. After all the farm exists to serve the big league club - however that happens. Now whether Dombrowski has replenished is a fair question. Right now, the answer is "some". But every system has these cycles - including the Theo years. And - for the most part, Dombrowski's decision involving prospects to deal have been defensible ones - perhaps even correct.
  25. sk7326
    Also a function of where a team is - the marginal value of a WAR basically. A 60 win team's decision in this sort of thing is much different than a 91 win one.
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