sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Also the wins aren't helping fill the 'dome. Tampa has to do a lot to make the market care. The Red Sox get a lot more bang for the win.
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Betts will just turn 28 when he hits UFA-dom. 10 years is silly ... 6 is not. Or for that matter a long deal with a player option after 3 seasons. Bogaerts wiill just turn 27 when he hits UFA-dom. Same as above where the team probably has a bit more leverage. Benintendi is a non-issue Bradley will be almost 31 when he hits free agency - a long deal is a hard pass.
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That is kind of simplistic. Fangraphs value is EXTREMELY context dependent - and heck, it varies during the season. Tampa's dollar per WAR is very low - though it can jump up if it is high enough. (tl;dr - Tampa has to pile up a lot of wins before anybody gives enough of a crap for them to move the needle financially) Boston's is higher. At the same time, the teams' own "replacement" is not the hypothetical R of WAR - but what they actually expect to be able to sign for the position. I mean, a "replacement player" is basically an "up and down" guy. Basically Bryce Brentz (for an outfielder).
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Listen - I agree in principle that being the 2009 Yankees is less fun - though I suppose jacko would disagree there. If you categorize re-signing studs our farm system signed and developed as buying a title - I have to disagree. After all - what is the point of the Red Sox doing stuff right then.
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The surcharges could hamper ownership's willingness to pay ... but that is their decision. The draft pick penalty is relatively meaningless.
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They will need some of that ... but really, the Red Sox don't actually need the farm to produce worker bees ... there are lots of ways to find Mitch Morelands. The Red Sox want the farm to produce STARS ... and you can see that in how Dombrowski has handled the farm. He has aggressively managed the stars and used the other guys to figure out other parts. Teams like Tampa and Oakland is more likely to use the "non-star" tier of players as well. Dombrowski does not have a 2020 problem. John Henry does. The choice of signing guys who are already good ENTERING their prime is not a difficult one. It's just a matter if ownership wants to take said plunge. Bradley and Bogaerts are fairly complicated - Betts and Benintendi are not.
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He got what the market priced - there is some considerable risk in the deal ... but the Red Sox could clearly afford the downside. The upside was so immense - and so specifically perfect to what ailed the Sox - that it made sense to figure it out. And moreover, the deal is structured in a way that makes sense for everybody. Most big name free agents are bad deals anyway - but unfortunately often you gotta do it.
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I think this is the interesting question. Who benefits from the Red Sox having a "modest" payroll? The punitive measures aren't really a deterrent. I as an out of town fan sure don't. And if I were a more active consumer of the Red Sox, that answer would be even more emphatic. If the Red Sox slashed payroll - it would just be increasing profit margins for the ownership ... which ultimately does not benefit anybody. Oakland has to think of it like college sportsball - that was the entire point of Moneyball. But the Red Sox manifestly do not (and frankly should not) share that context. Keeping the best player the Red Sox have had since early career Nomar should be a baseball decision - not a financial one. Affordability is a non-issue. A strong minor league system is generally a good idea - but the goals of the minor league system aren't the same.
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I actually don't disagree with the fundamentals ... but we are a big market team with different realities than Oakland and Tampa, and should not pretend otherwise.
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We haven't traded a single prospect we're gonna miss ... considering the insanely high prices the fans are charged, an insanely high payroll is frankly something that should be expected. The reason the payroll is going to be crazy high is the success the team has had developing its kiddos. I mean, Dombrowski - for all the talk of mortgaging the future, simultaneously made super-aggressive bets on Benintendi and Devers ... but that always gets underreported.
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There hasn't been mortgaging of the future either. Really - the team's ability to navigate the future is ultimately on Henry's pocketbook.
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I think that's fair. Kinsler has a strong Hall of Fame case. Pedroia's is better with the MVP, the 2 titles and of course his status as one of the best 10 or so position players in the history of a tentpole franchise like the Red Sox. But the gap in late career durability is legitimate - and you can't ignore that.
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Without prime prospects to offer - Dombrowski has extracted a ton of value. He has taken advantage of Boston's other virtue - the ability to absorb money.
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As Danny Ainge (I think) said, "availability is an ability" - and on that front Kinsler and Pedroia just don't compare since 2013. While folks can disagree about whether Kinsler has been Pedroia over that time frame when they have been playing ... Kinsler actually HAS been playing, and that is a big deal.
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What I like about the Sox 'pen is that they have a good number of legit multi-inning options. It gives Cora some freedom in having a quick hook with his #4/#5 guys.
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It was the sort of play we haven't seen since more vintage Pedey.
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Swihart has always been their most talented catcher all around ... but injuries threatened to completely destroy that. It has been a happy accident that his contractual status forced the Red Sox to keep him. That said, he has been good and deserves credit for that. - and there is a reasonable argument that he should keep playing when Vasquez returns.
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Right. The Yankee bullpen is excellent - especially bridging from the 6th to the end. But no regular season bullpen is really that well equipped to hold up a team if a starter can't escape the 5th.
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Personal opinion: Brian Johnson is ready to be our 5th starter
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Pomeranz has a bit of that thing that Matsuzaka had when he was with Boston (not comparing their qualities just style) ... even the good starts are fairly painful to watch, and he ends up throwing a ton of pitches. The results are there - but you miss some of the bulk you'd like with a really good starting pitcher. I think a good way to think of it - at least for 2018 is that Cora isn't really locked into his #4 and #5 choices (and injuries have dictated that) - and frankly, there is no reason for us to have those locked down. Really the operating question is do you trust a guy to get through the lineup twice? -
my favorite stat was the Yankees oen not allowing more than 6 runs in a game all season - until they gave up 7 in the 4th inning. The Red Sox could use more bullpen depth - not because they are lacking but because this is baseball and you can never have too many arms. It'd be good for them to revisit the Francisco Liriano talks over waiver time.
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Personal opinion: Brian Johnson is ready to be our 5th starter
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yes - he fought mental illness to get back ... good for him Johnson has made a case for the #5 starter - but I think we have to dispense with those definitions ... at least for the rest of this season. We know Sale, Porcello and Price are solid. If Rodriguez were healthy he'd be clearly in the mix - but I will not make any guesses on his actual health. But more importantly, between Wright, Johnson, Pomeranz, Rodriguez and Velasquez - Cora can cobble together starts. Heck, in the postseason I don't Cora will be shy at all about piggybacking Johnson and somebody else and making a Game 4 a bullpen game. -
The marginal difference between picks 30 and 40 is almost zero. The surplus penalties means Henry has to put off buying another plane. SAD!
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Yeah Boston is still going to fish for relievers because everybody is doing that. If they could find another innings soaking starter who could be swung to the pen in October that would be good too.
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Anaheim picked up a portion of Kinsler's salary - the Red Sox had to give them bodies for Anaheim to do that. It makes perfect sense.
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Nor should it - if Henry is willing to pay whooppee ... and the draft pick penalty is essentially nil. (the marginal difference between picks 30 and 40 is almost zero). I think the price has to be right though - and Dombrowski clearly believes in Devers.