sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I think the Yankees have some credible outs if Gregorius is hurt. Gray was terrible, but he also showed signs of being terrible when he got dealt. Lynn was just a warm body for a rotation that was undergoing its annual Severino running out of gas. Paxton projects to be a legitimate #2/#3 starter. If he could just give them some certainty that will be a big deal. As I noted above, I discount bullpen signings some because year to year consistency is so low in general. That said Ottavino is fine, and Britton if he stays healthy will be quite good. (as he got healthy last season that murderous ground ball rate came back) I think they have done a little more than Boston who has really just kept their October team together more or less. But that is still a heck of a team, with legitimate room to improve at 2B and 3B. Put another way, I think it is much more likely Devers will make a leap to another level than Andujar. The Wild Card for the Yankees lineup is Sanchez pretty clearly. I think the Sox should be favored to win the division - though if the bet was us vs the field, I'd probably take the field.
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the Yankees made improvements - the big one was Paxton in the rotation. The signings for the bullpen are nice, but given the extreme volatility of relief pitching, it is hard to call any bullpen all set. I mean the Yankees bragged about being able to make 5 inning games last season and a fat load of good it did in the Division Series. What is interesting about the AL East is that the Rays improved on paper at least as much as the Yankees have, and are coming off of a 90 win season. For all the Sox-Yankee talk, it is actually a 3 team race. I mean if I were to handicap the AL East pct likelihood I'd go: Red Sox 45% Yankees 35% Rays 19.9% Field 0.1%
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For relievers ERA is a bit dicey - especially since one bad outing can cripple it for the whole season. For relievers in particular - especially deciding who to add, give me strikeout rate and walk rate and I'll have a really good place to start. For starters, park adjusted ERA is not a terrible place to begin. But even then, between strikeout rates and batted ball statistics, we can do better in a deep dive.
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First base is fine. First, the leaguewide production at the position is not that great - and second, that jobshare looks like it should be pretty steady, and there are ways to supplement weakness there. (like giving JD Martinez a few whirls there)
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I don't think there is a significant impact to the team's run margin. It's not as positive as other areas - but I don't think that is an area other teams look at it and think "well, they're pretty screwed there". Arguably catcher is not their diciest position entering the season. (2nd base, take a bow - and even then I don't think Brock Holt as your baseline position is THAT bad)
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You are right. Our catcher position is not a weakness. Now I think it could be better is Vazquez could stay healthy - Leon's production offensively is very bad even by the rock bottom expectations of a catcher. Swihart still has time to be good, but I suspect it would be better for him to find another team where he can get reps regularly.
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Can't get home without getting to first. Baserunners are the ingredients for runs and there is no evidence that a pitcher can control the latter without controlling the former.
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Aaron Judge rankings entering 2017: Fangraphs 61 Law 44 MLB.com 22 Big hesitation on Judge was whether he could make enough contact at the big league level given his issues on that front coming up. Obviously he has.
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Law's blurb on Andujar from last year (Not Ranked in 2017) below: Fangraph ratings: Hit GamePower RawPower Speed Field Throws Future Value 45 / 55 45 / 55 60 / 60 55 / 50 45 / 55 70 / 70 60 Multiple scouts thought Andujar had the tools to be average at 3B. It is possible his terribleness was not tools-related, but poor coaching or just the dude himself. The power was undervalued - although given the juiced major league ball, that seems to be a consistent problem evaluating prospects.
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I do too - it is a good gamble for SF. Pom is moving into a much more favorable pitching park - especially if you give up fly balls.
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... so, it was not forever?
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Law in one of his chats noted really the most reputable rankings for him are MLB.com, BA and Fangraphs ... Law and fangraphs make personal evaluations of the kids, mlb and BA do not. There is obviously not a right or wrong way, but it is interesting to see where the approaches get you.
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Law's deep dive comes next week ... he's already pointed out that the Red Sox farm was beset by injuries last year, and of course like many teams (say the Cubs) they used a lot of their blocked depth to build a WS winner. He likes the last few drafts and the work on the international front. When most of your talent is towards single-A your ranking will be low, but with a large range of outcomes.
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Vazquez is their most likely scenario for getting good defensive catching with a non-embarrassing level of offensive production.
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I doubt that matter much. The money is a non-issue, but the chance to play is not. There are places I imagine with more vacancies and in more advantageous places (like Pomeranz going to a pitcher friendly place like SF).
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The Cubs did - and it makes sense, since you are sending guys who were blocked to help the major league team. I mean Michael Kopech did not throw a pitch for the Red Sox - but there is a strong argument he helped the Red Sox as much as he would have had we kept him. (and I am ignoring his UCL injury, which nobody is reponsible for) That is DEFINITELY true with Moncada. Certainly they provided more value than just collecting fleas for less than minimum wage on the farm.
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I tend to think it is more cyclical - based on where a team is in that cycle. That and economic realities - the teams that can afford to add salary will do so.
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You look at MLB's team rankings (which weights prospect quality) The ten playoff teams rank: Cubs (29), Red Sox (28), Yankees (24), Brewers (23), Guardians (19), Rockies (18), Dodgers (11), A's (9), Astros (5), Braves (2) So 6 teams in the bottom half of prospect rankings, 4 in the top half. So the correlation of this year's prospect rankings aren't that useful.
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2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)
sk7326 replied to sk7326's topic in Red Sox Minor League Talk
FIRST ENTRY IN ESPN'S STUFF: Keith Law on 15 guys who just missed the Top 100 http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25833101/just-missed-top-100 -
I couldn't care less about the cliff. This team is set to be very good by having a lot of young core talent. The ownership can clearly afford to make clear eyed decisions on them. If they suddenly turn into the Oakland A's, they will deserve all the derision they get. Now I don't think that will happen.
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Those were teams that thought they'd be competitive - they were trying. People make mistakes - that is different than not trying.
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I don't know. We'll see. Henry has tried pretty hard to put a winner out there. I don't see a ton of reasons that it won't continue to some degree or another.
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It will help to the degree that currently the conditions which infect Machado/Harper will still infect Betts, who'll be two years older when he hits UFA status. If a dozen teams are not falling over themselves to sign 26 year old superstars, I don't know what to tell you. It's a deeply flawed system. Bradley I worry about less - I can see the Red Sox not getting into a bidding war there.
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Owner happy owners are not spending money - stop the presses! Werner was a notorious cheapskate in San Diego - this is not revelatory.
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It is up after 2021 ... the next CBA will make it easier to spend money because the current condition does not work for the players or the media partners frankly. Even if that means a significant increase in the minimum salaries. (which is quite overdue anyway) Again - any system where a 26 year old superstar is not having a dozen team falling over themselves to sign him is one that needs fixing.