sk7326

Padres are better off just trying to sign Machado or just leave the spot open if Tatis is ready to arrive.

These small market teams get almost $100M before a ticket is sold, and that does not count team to team revenue sharing. The players have almost nothing to do with what fans pay. That is entirely supply-demand. Really things to change attendance wouldn't help all that much. It's local television that is the great unequalizer.

A lot of them are in settlement - the arbitration process is pretty flawed and determined by baseball card stats

Is there an epidemic of teenagers entering the league? In either case, you revise the Rule V protections rules to disincentivize that.

Maybe, maybe not - keeping them in the minors reduces ROI for the major league team. Ultimately now salaries are being suppressed because there is mechanism forcing owners not to.

at minimum - I'd push for restricted FA after 3 years, unrestricted after 4.

The players absolutely should demand a large increase in the minimum wage. That is obvious. What is best for competitive balance is lots of teams being able to compete for players. That requires teams trying to win and spending some of that giant pool of money they get before a ticket is ever sold. Right now there is not a forcing mechanism there - like a revenue guarantee, a global salary cap if not a local one. The players erred by not forcing that and this is the repercussion. I am also genuinely amused at the matter of fact defense of the Yankees being in the bottom 5 of % revenue spent on baseball players by vocal Yankee fans.

Deep dive: http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25893794/al-east-prospect-guide-watch-red-sox-yankees-blue-jays-rays-orioles

They will have to resort to the old "spend money they are rolling around in" strategy for a bit ... see if the IFAs hit. Obviously Casas and Gilberto Jimenez are super interesting. As I note a lot, every team faces this ... it is at least good to know there is talent coming in and the team has not gotten cheap in the IFA market. His blurb on the Brewers (#25) gets to my feelings 25. Milwaukee Brewers 2018 rank: 8 .

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25907443/keith-law-2019-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems Red Sox Org Rank: #24 24. Boston Red Sox 2018 rank: 24 19. New York Yankees 2018 rank: 2

I think the range of outcomes for ANY bullpen is so high that even if we spent more - things would not feel solved. The Sox moves to that end so far - find a bunch of guys with some swing and miss in their arsenal and see what Cora and the staff can do - make sense to me.

The bullpen is critical. But what they are doing is sound - signing a ton of guys with some swing and miss in their profiles and counting on a some of them to hit. On top of the dumpster diving they've done, there are some possibilities on the farm (Travis Lakins particularly). The remaining budget allows them to add another body during the season if necessary.

It makes sense to just wait during the season to see where the bullpen is. Right now it looks like it could be bad - or it could be fine. I have no issue riding it out and seeing what happens. They will probably add one more arm as the relief pitcher pool filter shakes things out.

The NFL can do this because it's largest revenue stream is socially distributed - there is no local TV money, it's all national. And even then, baseball has more competitive balance - baseball is just a more leveling game. Baseball does not need a salary cap at all. They just need teams to try to win - and the incentive to do so. Remember, the YANKEES are not even trying that hard. It's not a haves vs have nots problem. It's a general miserliness one.

For me it's simple. The players should lock in a certain percentage and the owners have to make it up to them if they come up short (and sure let it be a range - so the players owe money if it gets over some level). Ultimately players want teams competing - it's good for them. At this point if I'm San Diego - absolutely go in on Harper/Machado - why not? It makes sense given the market.

Joe Sheehan put it well. It was a huh-yoooge mistake by the players association in the last CBA negotiations not to lock in a revenue guarantee. It's what you get when an ex-player is leading them - they were bought off by a couple of roster spots. They only have themselves to blame that the owners - who are ALL clearing $100M before selling a single ticket, are all collectively turning into scrooges. Owners are acting rationally - but it's within a system which does not tie financial success to on field success, where it is basically impossible to not be profitable. Players goals are much more aligned with fans goals - which of course make it perfectly sensible that fans identify with owners much more.

I look at baseball from a fan interest view. Player movement is good for the game - it's another way of celebrating players (which MLB in general is very very very very very very bad at) and it is good to keep interest across the whole country. I look at the NFL, which also has a very long offseason, but they toss in the NFL draft in may and get a whole weekend to themselves. The Winter Meetings were a good way for baseball to stay on the radar during the offseason and it is bad that it has been screwed up by a bunch of cheapskates.

It's just as well, with the volatility of relievers, unless you can find a reliable multi inning guy, just throwing bodies at it is not a terrible idea.

Who would I take NOW as an old man. Uehara is the most tempting because he never worked with a plus fastball anyway - exceptional location and a terrific splitter. Foulke is his arm was healthy had the same thing going for him - an unremarkable fastball but well located and a wipeout change.

Key will be injuries - which was Bedard's undoing as much as anything. And I am not saying Paxton is an ace - it's that he can give them a reliable somebody, and by the end of last season the Yankees were severely lacking in reliable anybodies in the rotation.

If they are going to keep having dead as a doornail winter meetings it is.

The field = any of the other teams in the division The Rays won 90 games last year and have added talent. The Red Sox could be the exact same team qualitatively and be 8 games worse just due to close game luck. Same applies to the Yankees. Now as I noted, I think the Rays odds are low relative to the other teams, but hardly very very slim. You get to 95 wins (possible) and you enter the "possible" range.

I think the Yankees have some credible outs if Gregorius is hurt. Gray was terrible, but he also showed signs of being terrible when he got dealt. Lynn was just a warm body for a rotation that was undergoing its annual Severino running out of gas. Paxton projects to be a legitimate #2/#3 starter. If he could just give them some certainty that will be a big deal. As I noted above, I discount bullpen signings some because year to year consistency is so low in general. That said Ottavino is fine, and Britton if he stays healthy will be quite good. (as he got healthy last season that murderous ground ball rate came back) I think they have done a little more than Boston who has really just kept their October team together more or less. But that is still a heck of a team, with legitimate room to improve at 2B and 3B. Put another way, I think it is much more likely Devers will make a leap to another level than Andujar. The Wild Card for the Yankees lineup is Sanchez pretty clearly. I think the Sox should be favored to win the division - though if the bet was us vs the field, I'd probably take the field.

the Yankees made improvements - the big one was Paxton in the rotation. The signings for the bullpen are nice, but given the extreme volatility of relief pitching, it is hard to call any bullpen all set. I mean the Yankees bragged about being able to make 5 inning games last season and a fat load of good it did in the Division Series. What is interesting about the AL East is that the Rays improved on paper at least as much as the Yankees have, and are coming off of a 90 win season. For all the Sox-Yankee talk, it is actually a 3 team race. I mean if I were to handicap the AL East pct likelihood I'd go: Red Sox 45% Yankees 35% Rays 19.9% Field 0.1%

For relievers ERA is a bit dicey - especially since one bad outing can cripple it for the whole season. For relievers in particular - especially deciding who to add, give me strikeout rate and walk rate and I'll have a really good place to start. For starters, park adjusted ERA is not a terrible place to begin. But even then, between strikeout rates and batted ball statistics, we can do better in a deep dive.