sk7326

They did this n 1987 and got into very big trouble. The money is out there, I know where I want it going.

In auction terms it's called the winners' curse. Usually teams in FA pay a premium above the player's true "worth" (in terms of production, whatever) in order to win the bidding.

If Murray was a Top 10 pick he would make more money in football than baseball. Now, never say never - but the guarantee he got from the A's (the reason the A's took him 9th overall in the first place) was based on him only playing football this year. Boras is tough as they come, but I don't think he'd be great with a client walking away from a deal that is signed. Most of these baseball-football decisions are guys in high school.

The walk rate is a serious problem - really that was the crux of the issue. He just couldn't throw strikes consistently. I have no problem bringing him back - but there are a lot of comparable options out there.

the largest items on the expense ledger are player expenses and stadium debt (which the Yankees have). But the industry in general is much much richer than fans think.

Right - he's an invitee ... I expect little, but I can see why they're doing it

if he has a real wipeout sinker that is getting groundballs, it is worth kicking the tires on. For a reliever, if you have one premium pitch - there is at least a place to start.

His relative low worth is driven by his contract demands. If you could get him for, say David Robertson's price - yay. Really, the market has moved so slowly that I am not sure exactly where the Sox stand with any of the guys on the market.

Regarding the Betts extension. If you take his projected 2019 arb value of $18.7M and let's just say $25M for 2020 (his arb value was $10.8M for 2018 so this seems fair) and add $40M/$42M for two free agent years (used fangraphs estimation tool for a 5 WAR player) , that comes to a total of $125M for 4 years. If you apply some sort of discount rate (like 5%), that comes out to $115 PV. So perhaps a "opt-out period" of 4/120 works, (27.8, 29.2, 30.7, 32.2) which gets more "value" in his hands earlier while saving the Red Sox money (and tax) later. In this baseball economy you have to look at, say the 4 years after that at something like $40+ per year. So let's say 4/180 or something. So a total extension of 8 years 300 million makes sense. There is some room to go higher, but that is what you are looking at imo, more or less.

If it were me and my career, I'd want him. Remember, part of Boras' job is to welcome the hatred - so his clients don't have to take it.

In 7 years he is probably Andrew McCutchen now - a guy who has to "play a corner" (instead of now where Betts happens to play a corner because the CF is excellent) but still gets on base more than enough to be a good player, if not an MVP level one.

Right, I meant that a team signing Donaldson hoping he can be a 5-win player (not expecting, hoping) is not crazy. It's a decent value play. Tulo is nothing like that - the best/worst that can happen is for Tulo to have a good spring and capture Boone's heart for a month the way Grady Sizemore did for us, before turning into the pumpkin that was expected.

The biggest reason for the escalation of salaries is the escalation of revenue. The players became portable once the sport and the union recognized that they have the same right to switch companies that every other person has. The owners are swimming in cash, as you said. The Yankees are spending barely a third of their revenue on player salaries. To the Red Sox credit, they are spending more. They can absorb it - but they are spending a lot.

You always want to see what a guy has - he is a former MVP-level player. But this is not Josh Donaldson - who while getting a 5-win season is unlikely, it's not impossible. The Yankees don't lose much here (they have a ton of payroll room), but the reward is probably going to be low too.

The union will want to get rid of the arb years if the industry is going to treat the luxury maxes like a hard cap. The Yankees for instance are only spending about 29% of their revenue on player salaries. (and spending it on guys who weren't voting playoff shares for their staff) If the team is going to act like it is a salary cap sport, then salary arbitration basically means that teams are getting crazy bargains for these dude's peaks.

It's the JD staredown with an inferior player. Kimbrel does not have anybody who can meet his desired price. The Red Sox would still like him, but on their terms - and they have a LOT of viable alternatives on the market they can find. The Red Sox have leverage here, and I would not be surprised if Kimbrel comes back with a fairly friendly deal.

You can only control so much. But you have a 90 win team - you gotta give it a chance. Would I pick them to win the AL East? No. Could they pass ONE of New York/Boston? Maybe.

That call "we're NOT rebuilding" is an owner's call - not a GM's one. And I DO understand to a degree. The Mets have a championship caliber starting rotation. Could a few moves change their "best case" scenario to 93-94 wins? Sure. But there is still quite a bit of hoping. It's a weird decision to make ... but given that I did not think it was a terrible trade. The future of the Cano deal is not good, but he's still going to be a useful player for another 3 years or so - and it's not my money. (frankly Mets fans should be incensed at how cheap the Mets are historically) Semi-related, it was good to see Tampa lean into contending too. (with much more justification) You have a 90 win team, shoot your shot.

Betts was their best hitter last year - your best hitter should be batting 2nd. It's a sensible move. Benintendi has plenty of on-base and base running skills already.

True with the former. I would not be surprised if Swihart and another guy could get close if the Sox were serious about Cervelli. The Pirates would have a direct replacement with a job opening and lot of control left - which is the sort of thing they probably want where they are.

The Mets are trying to contend. And if they want Realmuto that badly, it is just as sensible to deal with Miami directly.

The Sox catchers are basically a case of range of outcomes ... Leon has the smallest range of outcomes - a good receiver who is just a poor hitter. A team with our offense otherwise can carry him, but he is a weak spot. It is what it is. Swihart has the largest range of outcomes - just a lot of natural talent and injuries have gotten in the way. There is a better chance he can be a plus offensively and a solid defensive catcher. But between injuries and a lack of major league performance, we're just going on eye test Vazquez is somewhere in the middle. Defensively, he is excellent. He is a good enough receiver/gamecaller. Is it possible that he can hit more like the guy who we had late in the season? If so - then he is a well above average starter. That a streak like that is inside of him (and that he has flashed it multiple times) makes him at worst an okay starter/excellent jobbsharer. The one thing I see offensively is that he does put good at bats together, and he is a tough guy to strike out. What varies is whether he can make hard contact consistently. I would suspect Cora and Dombrowski would prefer if the offensive form Vazquez showed in October was relatively sustainable. A .270/.330/(who cares) with his receiving would be a terrific outcome.

Let's put it this way - we could be exactly as good as we were this past year and win 10 fewer games. Last year was special - no need to pretend otherwise. Getting Eovaldi helps relieve the pressure of having to source another starter. The interesting question is whether to bring Pomeranz back ... which I'm still interested if it can be a short hitch. As far as the bullpen goes I laugh in the face of any pitcher who demands more than 3 years.

4/68 ... it's a fair price. Years are risky - curious what sort of injury protection is there.

Arizona got themselves their 2019 starting catcher, a not-insignificant amount of slot money and a couple of guys with major league projection. Really it comes down to how you assess Carson Kelly. I can see it from their PoV. It made a ton of sense for the Cards obviously.