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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    The firing is both strange and kind of understandable. I mean Dombrowski and Henry go way back - Henry can't pretend that he did not know what Dombrowski would do. Indeed, Henry probably ordered it. So it's weird when Henry complained about profitability and plundering the farm. He told Dombrowski to do it - and Dombrowski's moves contributed to the single most dominant Red Sox team ever. Did Dombrowski do a good job? Relative to Henry's charge - absolutely. He traded a lot of the farm for major league help - but for the most part he got the help he was looking for. He also identified the gems in the system and promoted them aggressively. I'm not sure every GM would have thrown Devers and Benintendi into the fire like he did, and he was vindicated. There are a lot of good candidates - indeed many of them Red Sox alums. The new guy will have some big decisions - so it is a good time to put him in charge. Either way, the whiplash shown by Henry here is not really a healthy way to run a club.
  2. sk7326
    Firing Cora is possible since there will be a new GM I suppose. And since 3 of our last 4 titles were done by first timers, might as well draw another name from a hat. But on a more serious note - I'm not sure you blame Cora for the Red Sox starters ALL having below median seasons relative to expectations.
  3. sk7326
    No catcher is going to play more than 110-120 games, just nature of the beast. But the Vasquez we have this year - below average hitter but can hit some homeruns in juiced ball 2019 - is a good player.
  4. sk7326
    Losing JBJ, and finding a reasonable CF or RF (can't be picky) should not be all that difficult. Travis has probably shown enough to plug him into a corner as a worst case. This year I think is a bit of an aberration, in that the pitching was all bad at the same time. The only exception was Rodriguez, and even he was more an "above average" outcome than a crazy outlier. I guess I should say Workman as well. Position player wise the team is fine. C: Vasquez - Quality Starter 1B, 2B: Open to ideas 3B: Devers - Sure looks like a Superstar very soon SS: Bogaerts - A not quite superstar LF: Benintendi - A very good player, if not quite a star CF: Bradley - decent starter RF: Betts - actual Superstar DH: Martinez - A not quite superstar but absolute stud
  5. sk7326
    Some fun research on outfield defense and jump https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/jump?year=2019&min=q
  6. sk7326
    1. There is a lot of variability in the lists - ESPN and Fangraphs, BA and MLB have full time people on the job, so the lists all have credibility. The methods differ too, so you get some diversity. (fangraphs and ESPN scout the prospects themselves) 2. Ultimately signability matters in a lot of these choices. Remember, the Sox HAVE to sign their Top 10 picks to claim all of the pool money. I think from the picks it's pretty clear they are going to try to find some bonus money for Keane who they took in Round 11. Faltine in Round 39 I am assuming will honor his Texas commit (he doesn't last to Round 39 if he showed any inclination of signing). You have to assume that the college seniors the Sox took in Rounds 6-10 are there more or less because they will allow them to save pool money for Keane. (Dalton and Scott are probably org guys who will take the $10K bonus happily)
  7. sk7326
    Keith Law's writeup on AL draft classes http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26905439/keith-law-2019-mlb-draft-recap-al-team-team-breakdown
  8. sk7326
    Well growing up the #3 hitter was seen as where the best hitter should go. I think the reasons were still the same considerations (getting at bats vs getting RBI chances) - but now the industry has figured out that #2 is better. Now it doesn't matter a whole lot. But in an individual game, you want to take every edge possible.
  9. sk7326
    It is the big question with Dalbec ultimately. Can he make enough contact? Being a three true outcomes guy at the plate is fine, but this much swing and miss against guys who are largely not going to make the bigs is a huge red flag. It's basically the red flag Moncada had. Now - like Moncada, maybe Dalbec can make enough hard contact to get by. But the empirical evidence is dicey.
  10. sk7326
    It's still about upside - and the relative non-issues with TJS. The upside of a guy with some legitimate #2/#3 starter profile is always going to be up there a bit. Really, Duran's leap is the great story of the farm system. It shows that things change - all the time. Dalbec is getting on base - but he strikes out so much against AA pitching.
  11. sk7326
    If he was going for sure - he would enter the bigs as a 24 year old for the 2022 season. 4th round is way too high to pick him at that point aside from being a senior sign to save pool money. Taking him in the 4th means the Red Sox think there is a chance for an exemption. The longtime policy is that Sox'll have to wait 2 years - but there had been some political movement in recent years to try to allow postponement of service. Who knows.
  12. sk7326
    Lugo probably will crack the Top 10 - Song could crack the Top 15 but it is all about whether he has to serve his navy commitment or not.
  13. sk7326
    I think we're at the part of the draft where senior signs are flying off the board for bonus saving purposes
  14. sk7326
    Given what the industry is making, Harper's deal is frankly kind of a value ... Betts' slow start still puts him 10th in the AL in bWAR. By your criteria, the $30M a year bar is "Mike Trout and nobody else". And that would be really underpaid for Trout.
  15. sk7326
    Noah Song Longenhagen Jaxxon Groshans #49 misc college bat per Fangraphs
  16. sk7326
    Given the incumbents, I don't think anything that quick happens here ... HOWEVER, like Ellsbury, Duran is a college bat with an elite tool (speed).
  17. sk7326
    Ryan Zeferjahn Law: Longenhagen
  18. sk7326
    Middlebrooks was a better athlete. Really that he got to the bigs that quickly was a testament to that. He was a two sport guy who just had not played all that much baseball. Chavis has played more baseball than Middlebrooks has, and it does show in the more mature approach at the plate.
  19. sk7326
    He has also shown he can lay off of it.
  20. sk7326
    Right - a requirement of the situation is that a hitter can still turn on something inside, otherwise there is no incentive for pitchers to do anything else.
  21. sk7326
    Jarren Duran hit 2 HRs in his last year at LBSU and already has 4 on the farm - it's an impressive story. Now as a college signee you expect him to move quick, but getting to Portland already is good.
  22. sk7326
    I think with both of them - since they were looking to hit fly balls anyway, they looked at the shifts are relatively unimportant. What I wonder is whether the shifts will open up a chance for speedy slap hitters again. The problem is that to get to those slaps and to set the defense to shift on you, you have to be able to turn on inside stuff with at least SOME authority.
  23. sk7326
    That is a very hard call for the umps to make in real time - it means there has to be a simultaneous view of the baserunner and the ball as it leaves the field of play. You almost have to go to replay to feel good about it.
  24. sk7326
    Middlebrooks came up on a BABIP hot streak. It was clear that at some point that would fade. What is clear is that Chavis can clearly hit - he has a real approach and stuff.
  25. sk7326
    The shifting has gotten more precise. What I find interesting is that - longer term - you'd think that there would be a real market for an Otis Nixon of yore - who can make slap contact into the vacated SS or 3B hole and get on base that way. That seems like a natural counter which has not been deployed as much as one would think - at least not yet.
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