sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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The protection rules iirc were revised a couple of CBA terms ago which drained the pool a lot.
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I would not be surprised if there was a season or two where there is more dreaming than I'd prefer. If there is a season where this team looks like there is no realistic scenario which gets them into October, somebody screwed up.
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I would be very surprised if there was anybody in Rule V worth getting.
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There will be decisions ahead - the Red Sox have been in an amazing position for a few years. With a young core and good management, and an incredible amount of money - the team has no reason not to blunt lots of the "cliff" effects. This doesn't mean eliminate them. But for the whining Yankees fans make out of 2013-14, they were 84+ win seasons where there was a meaningful playoff chase for the summer. They have had some bad luck in replenishing the farm so far (injuries and worse) but there is still a decent amount of time for that to get somewhat better.
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Stump Merrill says hi.
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Devers is the starting 3B. Defense needs to get better, but he certainly is physically capable of doing it. He will be better offensively - heck, he was terrific with the bat against the team's toughest opponents.
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It's terrible. I mean - since the advent of player employment freedom (which made team building much harder than it was in the olde days) there has been only one team (Yankees 1994-2009) that has had a better 15 year run than this current Red Sox era. I will not be dishonest and say I don't care about the Yankees at all ... but I take very little solace in their losing. (2003 the only exception) I think of them very little relative to say, are the Red Sox winning.
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Look at the stupid "Yankees suck" chant ... no matter the time or place. You know who doesn't mean anything to me? The Yankees. They are a team to overcome ... just like all the other ones.
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There is pressure every year. The 2018 World Series will be quickly forgotten with a 5-12 start. It's just how Red Sox fans as a cohort are.
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Right - I'd list 2B as a non-problem. Between Holt, Nunez and whatever Pedroia can offer, there is more than enough floor to go forward.
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
90-92 or whatever on the fastball is fine if you can locate it with elite secondary stuff and a good approach. Owens clearly was faulty in the latter. I was consistently into not giving up on him because his changeup etc got swings and misses from big leaguers. But you throw your fastball more than anything else, and if you can't locate that you're dead. I mean - for an extreme counterexample - Koji Uehara was able to dominate in relief with an 89-91 fastball. Elite secondary stuff and control gets you a long way. -
Merrifield is a major fluke rule candidate - though probably a decent starter. He has shown power in the bigs which he never sniffed in his minor league career - while not being a very good defensive 2B. And he's 29 already. I am happy taking a pass.
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I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Right - Gabbard and Johnson aren't great stuff guys. But Johnson (at least) knows how to pitch - and has reasonably good command. That limits the upside to the 4/5 variety - but that's fine. He can succeed in the bigs as a command guy - as long as you are not expecting more. Owens had a wipeout change and a big league curveball. But without command or control, big league hitters can simply not swing at the potentially elite junk and sit on a fringe-average fastball. -
I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Owens was a disappointment because he had major league stuff. He just couldn't throw strikes. -
At worst you are looking at $110M for 13.0 WAR ... which (amazingly) is actually more of a "meh" than a "loss"
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Good question - can he make sure that 2 of them don't get injured?
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Yep - 40th instead of 30th. Really such a tiny penalty is the real reason why the Sox staying above the tax with a really good team is not really an issue (aside from money).
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It's a good trade for the Yankees to make ... that said durability has not been Paxton's forte
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
middle of the diamond has more hazardous plays than 1B. Any "risk" from 1B comes from just how many putout opportunities there are. -
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yeah - injury concern is not really the issue as much as relative substitutability. I think Betts + rando 2B > Betts + rando RF -
He did not have the cutter which is frankly what has rescued his career. His fastball was never effective, but the pitch sequence has changed things. Now, he has 111 IP over 4 months basically since his TJS. If the market thinks he can deliver ~500 innings at the clip he provided this year, that's probably a 20 million dollar pitcher. I mean that amply described Porcello - and that deal has worked out reasonably. (not GREAT, but reasonably) Right now the best thing he has going for him is that he did not wear down this year and made all of his starts, and finished strong. I would not blame the Red Sox if the bidding got too hot for, say, deciding a healthy Pomeranz and then diving into the Derek Holland/Anibal Sanchez/Matt Harvey pool would be a better use of resources.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
that was Seattle sweeping in with a crazy deal. Betts will get better offers in general - he is 3 years younger entering FA. Indeed my guess is that Betts will end up with a long deal with an opt out that can get him back into FA around age 30 or so. (which is sort of the deals I expect Machado and Harper to sign) -
Eovaldi's market is very hard to gauge - there are reasons it could be hot and reasons it might be able to get him for short money. That said I would go 3 years without much regret.
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The past performance on Eovaldi is a fair point ... of course he has better pitches now than earlier in his career.
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I don't think he is being expected to be priced as a great pitcher - just as a solid midrotation one. Seriously - if you had never watched baseball before and saw Eovaldi pitch last fall vs Kershaw and tried to guess who the better pitcher was ... it wasn't the latter.