sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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The Dodgers with their new ownership got an enormous TV deal - their revenue jumped. The Red Sox have always been pretty generous. Now is more aggressive than they have been - but it's always been pretty good. The Yankees thing is really funny to me. They are loaded - and there is a chance to make a significant improvement in the infield in a position where the marginal wins are incredibly valuable, and all it costs is money. And yet, they sit out and their fans seem way too okay with that. Now I still think there is a 30% chance they sign Machado because who knows - but it's striking.
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They are a crapshoot - it's why teams have so much turnover there. Now there are relievers who are reliable - but it's a relatively small number. I mean Kimbrel had a good season in spots last year - but late last year he was flat out not good. Since relievers pitch in short stretches often in higher leverage spots, small changes can lead to very volatile results.
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The Yankees spend 29% ... the Red Sox and Dodgers spend closer to 50% (at least based on last Forbes report). It's cute that the Yankees treat the luxury tax tiers as a salary cap - but it's their choice, they can afford any of these big players.
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Yankees spend 29% of their revenue on players - 29th in the league (or thereabouts). A way to tell that it has gone down is that their payroll has not increased at the rate of the revenue influxes. Also - like the Sox - they own their own media property, which involves money which might not even be tracked properly. I mean they are getting a cut of the take on Brooklyn Nets games too. The Yankees will ALWAYS be able to afford more players than other teams - their revenue is just much much higher. But they are choosing to pocket a lot of that - and pay for the stadium which is obviously forcing Hal to turn to payday loans.
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Longoria is not a very good example - injuries kicked in for him. That is a fair question for Harper - Machado has been very durable. Any contract can go bad - but as far as playing the percentages go, 26 year olds are a pretty good breed. I bet the Rays would do that again given the information they had then 10 times out of 10 - not all good ideas work.
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It made me realize Hal Steinbrenner is a Scrooge
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Here is the thing with Machado or Harper. At this point they are being undervalued relative to production. Normally a team like the Padres or White Sox doesn't make sense. However, they are so young - and the team expects to have a bunch of solid players on cheapo entry deals, that it actually matches their schedule quite nicely. Now, if the Phillies don't end up with one of them, that is a massive organizational failing. I still half expect the Yankees to nab Machado - frankly it is derelict they have not already.
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Padres are better off just trying to sign Machado or just leave the spot open if Tatis is ready to arrive.
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These small market teams get almost $100M before a ticket is sold, and that does not count team to team revenue sharing. The players have almost nothing to do with what fans pay. That is entirely supply-demand. Really things to change attendance wouldn't help all that much. It's local television that is the great unequalizer.
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A lot of them are in settlement - the arbitration process is pretty flawed and determined by baseball card stats
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Is there an epidemic of teenagers entering the league? In either case, you revise the Rule V protections rules to disincentivize that.
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Maybe, maybe not - keeping them in the minors reduces ROI for the major league team. Ultimately now salaries are being suppressed because there is mechanism forcing owners not to.
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at minimum - I'd push for restricted FA after 3 years, unrestricted after 4.
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The players absolutely should demand a large increase in the minimum wage. That is obvious. What is best for competitive balance is lots of teams being able to compete for players. That requires teams trying to win and spending some of that giant pool of money they get before a ticket is ever sold. Right now there is not a forcing mechanism there - like a revenue guarantee, a global salary cap if not a local one. The players erred by not forcing that and this is the repercussion. I am also genuinely amused at the matter of fact defense of the Yankees being in the bottom 5 of % revenue spent on baseball players by vocal Yankee fans.
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2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)
sk7326 replied to sk7326's topic in Red Sox Minor League Talk
Deep dive: http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25893794/al-east-prospect-guide-watch-red-sox-yankees-blue-jays-rays-orioles -
2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)
sk7326 replied to sk7326's topic in Red Sox Minor League Talk
They will have to resort to the old "spend money they are rolling around in" strategy for a bit ... see if the IFAs hit. Obviously Casas and Gilberto Jimenez are super interesting. As I note a lot, every team faces this ... it is at least good to know there is talent coming in and the team has not gotten cheap in the IFA market. His blurb on the Brewers (#25) gets to my feelings 25. Milwaukee Brewers 2018 rank: 8 . -
2018 ESPN Prospects Stuff (Sox Related)
sk7326 replied to sk7326's topic in Red Sox Minor League Talk
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25907443/keith-law-2019-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems Red Sox Org Rank: #24 24. Boston Red Sox 2018 rank: 24 19. New York Yankees 2018 rank: 2 -
I think the range of outcomes for ANY bullpen is so high that even if we spent more - things would not feel solved. The Sox moves to that end so far - find a bunch of guys with some swing and miss in their arsenal and see what Cora and the staff can do - make sense to me.
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The bullpen is critical. But what they are doing is sound - signing a ton of guys with some swing and miss in their profiles and counting on a some of them to hit. On top of the dumpster diving they've done, there are some possibilities on the farm (Travis Lakins particularly). The remaining budget allows them to add another body during the season if necessary.
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It makes sense to just wait during the season to see where the bullpen is. Right now it looks like it could be bad - or it could be fine. I have no issue riding it out and seeing what happens. They will probably add one more arm as the relief pitcher pool filter shakes things out.
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The NFL can do this because it's largest revenue stream is socially distributed - there is no local TV money, it's all national. And even then, baseball has more competitive balance - baseball is just a more leveling game. Baseball does not need a salary cap at all. They just need teams to try to win - and the incentive to do so. Remember, the YANKEES are not even trying that hard. It's not a haves vs have nots problem. It's a general miserliness one.
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For me it's simple. The players should lock in a certain percentage and the owners have to make it up to them if they come up short (and sure let it be a range - so the players owe money if it gets over some level). Ultimately players want teams competing - it's good for them. At this point if I'm San Diego - absolutely go in on Harper/Machado - why not? It makes sense given the market.
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Joe Sheehan put it well. It was a huh-yoooge mistake by the players association in the last CBA negotiations not to lock in a revenue guarantee. It's what you get when an ex-player is leading them - they were bought off by a couple of roster spots. They only have themselves to blame that the owners - who are ALL clearing $100M before selling a single ticket, are all collectively turning into scrooges. Owners are acting rationally - but it's within a system which does not tie financial success to on field success, where it is basically impossible to not be profitable. Players goals are much more aligned with fans goals - which of course make it perfectly sensible that fans identify with owners much more.
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I look at baseball from a fan interest view. Player movement is good for the game - it's another way of celebrating players (which MLB in general is very very very very very very bad at) and it is good to keep interest across the whole country. I look at the NFL, which also has a very long offseason, but they toss in the NFL draft in may and get a whole weekend to themselves. The Winter Meetings were a good way for baseball to stay on the radar during the offseason and it is bad that it has been screwed up by a bunch of cheapskates.
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It's just as well, with the volatility of relievers, unless you can find a reliable multi inning guy, just throwing bodies at it is not a terrible idea.