sk7326

Well, to fans the 9th inning has a special significance, but on the closer evidence "innings are innings" does seem to be more truthful. After all, Melancon is closing for a pennant contender this year - while he was hide your eyes awful in Boston. Same guy, his stuff isn't special. Fernando Rodney was dreadful in Anaheim after being OK in Detroit and has closed well in Tampa. Tampa put him in after Kyle Farnsworth, who was a disaster as a close and late guy in other stops became a 9th inning specialist. The Cardinals won 2 world series sort of randomly plugging in a closer for the stretch run. There is no real magic to the 9th inning in practical terms. That said, there is evidence to me that it is a role and the bullpen benefits from having some of these jobs well defined.

His walk rates (Rodney) are right in line with his career numbers. BABIP is .300, which is around "normal". It was last year's .220 which was the outlier. He is a very ordinary pitcher - but stuff plays up a bit in the pen.

I do wonder if there is a placebo effect of having a stable 9th inning guy - it doesn't matter how good the guy actually is. Bullpen approaches where managers draw names at random (hello, Grady!) have not had much success, but approaches where managers just nominate a guy who may or may not actually be good (hello Mark Melancon, Brandon League) have seemed to be effective. It's a job that anybody can do - but it is important that SOMEBODY do the job. Maddon might just be satisfied leaving Rodney there as opposed to creating drama in the pitching staff generally.

I've always wondered - just to switch topics - why teams don't take a lesson from Weaver and break their younger guys in the bullpen ... suppose (using the Red Sox roster as a framework) Starters: Lester, Buchholz, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey (5 man rotation, we know how this works) Rotating Relievers: Britton, Ranaudo, Dempster (3 man rotation - you know you are the first guy out of the bullpen - 30-40 pitches) Setup/Closer: Tazawa, Uehara, Thornton (if you want) I wonder if something like this would be more efficient - and still be able to develop pitchers at the top level while getting better than "insert Jesse Crain like name here" or some other parade of one-inning flotsam

Maddon could put him in the 7th maybe - but he is not reliable enough to be a good setup guy, not with his shaky command. And right now you wouldn't bring him in with guys on base. Tampa has had a ton of success drawing closers out of a hat - partially because they don't seem to overvalue the 9th inning that much. Aside from getting 3 outs with bases empty - there is not a lot they trust him to do. Also, given they play in front of a much more laid back/absent fan base, he can work through his issues.

In that case, most likely it will be whomever's turn it is - with all hands on deck. Won't have a chance to set the rotation.

Yeah, Rodney.

lol, nerdball, moneyball, pick a snarky term for analytics - which I love clearly. Term of endearment.

He'll stay in the 9th because he is incapable of doing anything else.

You'd love to have your first alignment in October ... but you'd rather have four #2s over a 6 month season. That is what makes baseball a fun game - it is a true test of a team's all around ability, since the skills to make it through the marathon are almost opposite the skills needed to win short series.

Well that proves the point about the stopper - the Red Sox have generally thrown together competitive solid outings all season. I can wish they had someone in the Scherzer-King Felix-Yu level of hombre, but you can count those on one hand - the totality of our rotation has been plenty good and will not be the reason the team loses in October.

Rest vs rust has always been a fun debate, but all the arguments are made post hoc (monday morning QBing). The 07 Sox were the best team in baseball - and while the best team in baseball winning the WS is not that frequent an event, worked out then. Colorado being iced for 9 days is one thing, but you don't want them to not win games either. Nature of these things (and the 2 best teams in the league were playing in the other semifinal anyway). It was 5-innings, but also 5-innings for your #5 starter in a NL park. Basically Tito lifted him after a 2-out walk to get to Delcarmen. At that point, 92 pitches, left with a good outing and backed up by an excellent bullpen. The winning too early thing has some good recent examples behind it - but it is very hard to see it as a real hard factor. After all, in 2007 the Rockies had to wait, but in 2008 the Phillies had to wait for the Rays to survive Boston - and it did not seem to impact things too much. Looking at the examples in the last 15 years or so - it seems like when a team sweeps and a team goes the distance, there might be a rust factor - maybe. But otherwise it's pretty much a non-factor. Baseball is just a funny game too - after all, a 7 game series is barely a ripply in a regular season. In the context of baseball, it might as well be single elimination.

Walks were way down - and a .220 BABIP which was wildly out of line with the rest of his career. But yeah this year he is the guy he always was without that batted ball fortune.

Maddon and Friedman are generally pretty creative here - the tough thing they have with Rodney is that if he is not pitching the 9th, he really can't pitch at all.

2007 the slash line is even better, .332/.445/.621, a 1.067 ops in 2007, which was a 171 OPS+. So the baseline OPS+ has fluctuated quite a bit, even those two seasons.

I still am not sure why they used Mike Gonzalez to get ONE OUT in the 4th when the game had spiraled out of control. Burned an extra pitcher for no reason. For that matter, same with Scott Thornton, but at least he is coming off the DL.

Sox have 8 hitters with above league average OBPs in today's starting lineup ... and Middlebrooks has his numbers dragged down from the early season obviously. THAT is how you generate a lot of runs.

it's fun to show up with guys on base

Truth here - but at the same time, you see starters get knocked out earlier - not because they pitch worse, but that (and there have been a lot of scouting and coaching sorts who talk about this) higher leverage pitches tire pitchers faster. The outings are just more stressful. Also, hooks are a LOT quicker in October (as well they should be).

Gomes looks like he thought he got it all ... I could see X possibly taking out Papi soon.

Chen's a good pitcher - but yeah having a bad day. Just no feel at all. Predictable or not, seriously missing spots. Pitch to Napoli was a meatball, pitch he struck out Middlebrooks on was a meatball (imagine such a fat pitch that Middlebrooks was totally crossed up by it). The pitch to Pedey was probably one of his better ones and look what happened.

Funny - imagine this inning if Middlebrooks wasn't caught guessing wrong on a BP fastball.

Interesting small move - Berry is just a guy, but another outfielder is useful. If we get to a wildcard round, where we get a free roster reset, could easily see adding him (you don't expect to need 11 pitchers, or even 7 - for a one game playoff)

It is an odd quirk. That said 8 HR in 59 IP is not the sort of thing you like out of relievers - but the walks and strikeouts are excellent, enough to work with. He doesn't throw his split enough and gets the ball up in the zone more than you'd like. But the results the last 2 years are there - he is a fine reliever. I think he would have done a solid job closing if they rode him out - but obviously things have gone well this way too . Breslow's K rate this year is below what you'd like too - but the results are hard to argue with. He has been good, better than strictly a matchup lefty. I'm not worried about that part of the team. The interesting choice is who becomes the swing guy. Dempster is the likely, and obvious choice (and I support it definitely). But - I could see an argument for Doubront, not because he has not done a solid job starting, but because his stuff could be very nasty in a "Lincecum 2012" role.

It's not actually bad at all .. Breslow/Tazawa/Uehara is as good a bridge to the end of the game as any team puts out there. Thornton, Britton are decent. Dempster being converted into a swing man I am confident in (he has bullpen experience, swing and miss stuff and the fastball could be more 92-94 than 90-91 in relief).