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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    I am not sure how much the postseason will impact things on Buchholz. There is the body of work - and yes, the durability is a concern if a fat extension is in his future. But this season he has shown at least evidence that the #1 stuff we saw in the past could be for real. I'd be hesitant to offer him years but there is time for that hestitation to be allayed.
  2. sk7326
    http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html for one scouting report ... Just comparing Nippon stats, Darvish rates out a bit better ... the strikeout rate was (and has translated) absolutely insane. Tanaka is no slouch - and from what I've read could be a true #2 sort, which is not at all bad. The posting fee rumors not in the ballpark of Darvish's from what I can tell.
  3. sk7326
    The right example for what you are saying (and Middlebrooks tracks VERY nicely here) is Josh Reddick. He could not ever hold a job in Boston (despite many chances) because his plate discipline and on base skills were dreadful. Since he has gone to Oakland, he is STILL a poor on base guy. However, his .305 OBP last year was enough to be able to get to his serious power, and combined with his defense made a good outfielder. The key is whether Middlebrooks can be good enough with the on-base to be sufficient for his other virtues (power, athleticism) to shine through. I mean we deal with this bargain all the time: Can Papi hit well enough to compensate for him having zero other value (obviously yes), can Iglesias hit well enough to be able to play his glove (probably) - and the Boegarts projection is due largely on whether he can manage to play a B-/C+ level of shortstop or not. Hell the Yankees have settled for a B-/C+ level of shortstop defense since the "other stuff" is HoF level.
  4. sk7326
    Ehhhh ... the Red Sox won this year because they basically had four #2-#3 starters (Dempster excepted though if he is your 5, that's good). The Sox (and every other team) could use a King Felix sort of legit #1 But there are maybe 10 of those, so the odds of actually having one is pretty darn low. (Scherzer, Darvish, Price, Wainwright, Felix, Verlander - big picture, Strasburg ... you start running out of names pretty quickly)
  5. sk7326
    Higher ceiling than Reddick if he could ever get healthy - but sadly, just never in the cards.
  6. sk7326
    Clogging the bases is just fine thank you - if the guy behind you unclogs them, that's an extra run. Waiting for the 3-run homer is a proven, much more durable way to score ... "clogging the bases" sounds a lot like Dusty Baker-ish nonsense. The Red Sox have been opportunistic stealing bases - but they largely lead the league in steals due to Ellsbury. The rest of the team clogs the bases - and they score a TON.
  7. sk7326
    I did - the Red Sox acquired him in a salary dump ... and did not bring him back. If you want a pinch runner, get yourself a Billy Hamilton. But the 1980s Cardinals ain't comin back ... the actual relationship between steals and runs is pretty low. Steals are nice - but getting to first base is far more important.
  8. sk7326
    Just a ballpark number as he gets better at stuff - I don't expect him to be a "green light, anytime" guy by any stretch. But opportunistic, has good enough speed - high baseball IQ. It will get better. Doesn't really affect my view that much - steals are awesome to have but not at all essential to good offense.
  9. sk7326
    Strikeouts (from a hitters view, pitchers entirely different) aren't really that much worse than other outs, especially if he is getting on base at a decent clip (you are probably better off just using straight percentage of PAs). And if he's not really compromising his extra base hits, then the ways you get to 1st base are fairly unimportant. Indeed, Rickey Henderson - and no, I'm not saying Bradley is going to be one of the top dozen or so players ever - was not a contact maven by any stretch.
  10. sk7326
    The walks lean in favor of Reynolds - but he also is an absolute disaster in the field. Middlebrooks was good last season, though earlier this year it has not been good (his slump early clearly bled into his whole game). Middlebrooks has the athletic ability (and some past performance) to be a much more valuable asset in the field than Reynolds.
  11. sk7326
    Certainly possible if not probable ...
  12. sk7326
    For me, I see Bradley's peak as good to very good glove, .350 OBP, 20+ steals, double digit homeruns ... while not Trout/McCutchen/Kemp ... at least Michael Bourn which ain't too shabby
  13. sk7326
    The talent evaluation on DiceK was sound - the stuff is still terrific. But his own approach was horrid and never got fixed.
  14. sk7326
    Will Bradley approximate Ellsbury 2013 in 2014? No. Will he be good enough that the Red Sox need not have to look at someone like Marlon Byrd or other marginally above replacement level fodder? Given the defense and approach - like the chances. What you look for is constant improvement - not going to get a finished product certainly.
  15. sk7326
    It's not a sliding scale thing ... it is more that there is a threshold level of OBP where you are not hurting your team. The league average is .320 or so for instance - so it is safe to say .310-.320 is something which can play if you bring other stuff to the table, like legitimate power. This is basically the difference between 2012 Josh Reddick and the Red Sox incarnation of Reddick. He did not become an on-base machine, because that's just not going to happen for him. His on-base got good enough to not be hurting his team, and to let the stuff he did inconsistently (hit the ball very far) and consistently (manage his position) happen.
  16. sk7326
    Crawford was a great athlete coming off of a fringe MVP level season - he was the top free agent position player on the market (or near the top I don't have the list in front of me). The odds he would forget how to play baseball entering his age 30 season more or less completely were extremely low. Really, the big shock was that he fell off a cliff as a defensive player ... for which there was no reasonable explanation.
  17. sk7326
    Sox paid a lot of money for Dice K, got some decent value ... was it a success? No, although it was not a failure of scouting or anything. One always got the sense that it was Matsuzaka himself. His amazing ability to limit BABIP (and it is a skill he seemed to legitimately have) allowed him to be decent at times despite being truly horrid to watch for almost all of his career. His 2008 season was probably one of the most overrated seasons in history. His 2007 was at least as good without the shiny sub 3.00 ERA to show for it.
  18. sk7326
    To be fair, a genius by Ron Washington standards
  19. sk7326
    The NL has closed the gap that has formed over the last 10 years. But it is not shut. Boston and Detroit are the two best teams in baseball and have proven it (Oakland is close). It don't mean a damn thing in October because that's how the game works - but I'd still pick an AL team blindly over an NL team. The ballpark edge an AL team has is profound - although any best of seven is basically coin flip.
  20. sk7326
    The "they are scouting him" stories I think tend to be leverage plays by some source. Teams are getting dimes on everybody. And there is no information advantage in the Nippon league, everybody knows the talent industrywide. I think if they see the stuff and the approach, he'd interest them. With the Japanese guys, the latter is often the problem.
  21. sk7326
    I think they have zero interest in how many times he strikeouts. Clearly that is an area where the team's development is relatively indifferent (and that's fine - strikeouts for a hitter aren't special). It has been the general approach and how long his swing got. He's never going to be an on-base machine but he can do enough to get to his power, which yeah is pretty good.
  22. sk7326
    I doubt I am - I certainly don't think Salty's better. But for the price and the years - sure. Salty has been more durable, has been roughly McCann's equal this year, and projects to be a 120 start guy for longer. Metrics this year on the two were roughly the same - Salty's arm is much inferior for sure, but neither is any sort of Molina here. Let's put it this way - he has made a lot of improvement across the board, enough to be a legitimate starter for the next 3 years - and there are precious few catchers out there who can say that. Trading Salty's next 3 years for McCann's is not a slam dunk at all - especially on a per dollar basis.
  23. sk7326
    Over the career - sure. But he has a lot more miles (despite close in age) - and the results have slipped. Both are probably middle of the pack by now - which is fine. McCann's reputation is stellar, but his ability to catch is on the decline in a way that Salty's ain't.
  24. sk7326
    Throwing he is not good, but he is a solid receiver otherwise - at least as good defensively as McCann - if he just went all Victorino and gave up switch hitting he'd be much more valuable despite the clear developmental leaps forward he has made the last 2 seasons.
  25. sk7326
    Pierzynsi and Ruiz are old ... not multi year solutions ... it's really a 2 man market with a dropoff. If Salty promised to stop pretending he can hit righthanded, I'd be happy to give him 3 years. (at a market reasonable price)
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