sk7326
-
Posts
7,647 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by sk7326
-
The way the Yankees have conducted the offseason is a little baffling. That they spend a ton of money is one thing - they are at the point on the ROI/Win curve where spending a lot actually makes a ton of sense if you can afford it. That they did not spend the money on keeping Cano while they were at it does not. You keep Cano plus the rest of the shopping spree and you have materially improved your ability to contend and the spoils that come with it. The Red Sox offseason has been quiet, neutral-ish. But that's fine. In their position you can make small changes, walk around with your bevy of prospects and contract absorption ability jingling away in your pockets waiting for an opportunity only you can pounce on e.g. if the White Sox ever SERIOUSLY took calls on Chris Sale or something equivalent.
-
I will agree with UN here. I defended their valuation and signing of Ellsbury. But that also was dependent on other moves, including figuring out 2B. Ellsbury for Cano is a net negative, even if Ellsbury could be particularly effective with 81 games of his fly balls finding the bleachers. Cano is one of the top half dozen position players in the league, full stop - so letting him go is basically letting 6 wins walk out the door without a backup plan. McCann is an upgrade and Beltran is less of one. And assuming they re-sign Kuroda and get Tanaka, the rotation is a little better. But this was not a 2009 goldmine offseason for the Yankees AT ALL. I'd say the Yankees offseason might be roughly 3 or 4 wins overall of impact - maybe. They spent an awful lot of money to just go into the Baltimore-Texas-Tampa soup. When they went shopping in 2009, it got them a wire-to-wire sort of dominance like the 2013 Red Sox had. BIG difference.
-
Considering what a "sell low" Middlebrooks represents today ... Allen Webster is about the return I'd expect. Now this doesn't mean I think Middlebrooks is better than that - I do. But you take 172 career games (off the top of my head) of non-special defense, .300 OBP and light tower power when he makes contact (which isn't that often) - for a guy who is not all that young ... an Allen Webster is reasonable. I think that sort of return is an argument for HOLDING Middlebrooks. But it's not at all an argument that it is an unfair return for what Middlebrooks represents. 30 HRs in 170 games is good - but take that with an OBP and defensive results which have not matched the ability - and you basically have a somewhat better Mark Trumbo. There is potentially a Kevin Towers out there to fool or an out-of-favor prospect to be dealt ... but that is the reality of Middlebrooks' market until he can find the June 2012 mojo for real.
-
It's #62 - in all of baseball. Probably the #2 or #3 pitcher in the Marlins org. For what its worth, the preseason list there had Casey Kelly, Allen Webster in that same ballpark. I don't think you were going to get a Strasburg level guy by dealing Middlebrooks. A pitcher with some mid-level or higher upside or a position prospect is probably what you'd expect for somebody who has had spotty results in his big league career to date (but is still young and all).
-
Hot start in 2012 which led to a .325 OBP - right on league average in his rookie campaign. Burden is on him to show he can get there. But the athletic ability and light tower power are there. Reason Trumbo is a poor player is not the low OBP - it is the low OBP combined with having no other baseball skills.. I like Middlebrooks - a good defensive 3B with light tower power and below average on-base skills ... that is a legit starter. I'd want to get a real guy if you're going to move him. There are limitations, and there are strengths, and there is a lot of raw potential which come with the sort of development background he had. If he can get to .315-.325 sort of OBP - right around average, shade below and yes, better than Reddick - he can be a very valuable guy,
-
#62 on Keith Law's 2013 Top 100 http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8878129/mlb-top-100-prospects-2013-nos-51-75
-
What is odd is that I don't see the issue with interpretation. Kemp is a Top 5 player - when healthy, as a CF. Both of those things are in peril. As such, you have to downgrade him. If you had any sort of solid probability that the Top 5 Kemp is likely for the next 2 or 3 years even, I'd back the truck up with the Cecchini's etc. But I am very pessimistic about that. I'd love to have Kemp roaming LF for us. His bat and a decreased outfield responsibility with reasonable health means we'd have the best outfield in the league possibly. But the probability of him achieving that is not at all a slam dunk, and it would be way too expensive for us to find out.
-
It's all part of the soup ... WAR incorporates at least the best attempts in the industry to value the rest of baseball aside from hitting stats (let alone those awful context dependent ones)). No single stat is "standard", but WAR did a nice job capturing just how fantastic a season Victorino had in a way that the ones you cite would have completely missed (for instance).
-
Fangraphs 4.5/2.7 BB 4.8/2.6 Is 2.6/2.7 "sniffing" 3? Depends on your level of charity. Considering the Sox got 2.8 out of the LF pu-pu platter (and we were happy enough with it) the numbers are not too bad. The OBP skills are weak - it's why we traded him - but they improved a little in Oakland (and in a tougher hitter's environment) and made him into a useful player. The OBP skills for Middlebrooks are suspect - but it doesn't mean that he can't be an above average to pretty good 3B. Reddick's rise to a useful everyday player is solid inspiration therein. Reddick has the athletic tools to overcome that part of his game with other stuff - and Middlebrooks athletically offers quite a bit of that.
-
I am sure there is one - although whether that one will part with a Bogaerts, or Oscar Tavares level guy is dicier. Maybe Seattle given its moves is that one team - which I wouldn't discount. Texas in theory lines up - but Daniels has generally been a lot smarter than that. Right now, I don't think they could trade Kemp for anything other than salary relief. Yes, there is a level of salary they can pick up where the return would officially be "something" other than just savings. But to me that threshhold is pretty high.
-
Indeed it does - but he also was a 3-4 win player (pick your flavor of WAR) during those time frames too. Low OBPs don't fill me with joy, but they are not death sentences either, especially when you have a guy with a lot of athletic ability.
-
I think the size is an uphill thing for Bogaerts - but he showed enough the last year and change for scouts to have changed their tune from "surefire 3B" to "yeah, he could stay at SS for a while". That is the entire source of the hype. Middlebrooks will never be an on-base machine. But he also is a superior athlete to say, Napoli, and could offer a lot more in terms of defense and versatility. He showed he could at least fake 2B, and I'd have no problem giving an athlete of his caliber turns in a corner OF position. If he concentrates on becoming a really good defensive 3B (which he isn't yet, but clearly able to), the total package along with the raw power can make up for low OBPs. The comparison I always use is Josh Reddick. Reddick does so many good things that his OBP can be low but acceptable enough to access all the good stuff. Last couple of years, Reddick has been OBP enough to be a solid starter. Can Middlebrooks get to that level (which would still be below average)? I think he can.
-
This is the kicker for me. This is not Jacoby Ellsbury having freak accidents running into things (and people). Kemp has suffered from 2 years of "old guy" sort of injuries which have a high likelihood of being chronic things. He already has to be downgraded a little because he has to play a corner to preserve his legs. I think the Dodgers are dreaming if they think they can get a premium haul for him, even if they eat half of the contract.
-
Small sample sizes, not a lot of big league tape on him ... if it comes as easily over the marathon as it did in the tournament - it's because he is really that good. I think the slash line I noted would be a very successful rookie season, and I think there's a good chance he exceeds it. And playing shortstop will be an uphill battle for him - it's the only question mark on his scouting dossier.
-
It is possible. My view of him will be defensively - is he adequate? I am not expecting great (which is fine, the Yankees have won titles with "adequate" defense). Offensively, how quickly will he make adjustments. If he can give a .270/.340/.400 sort of season with double digit homeruns - that would be a good start. But yes, you expect developmental leaps with guys like him who have conquered levels above his age level consistently. It's the "freshman playing with the varsity" thing.
-
I know. I think Brad Stevens with the Celtics said something to that effect ... you are never as good or as bad as you seem at any given time (or something like that)
-
The slumps look bad when tons of strikeouts come with it.
-
Is Shin Soo Choo worth 18m per year for the Red Sox?
sk7326 replied to vjcsmoke's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Oh I doubt he goes to Boston. But the question was whether that price was reasonable - it is. Gutierrez makes sense. An elite defensive CF (or at least was before his body started to fall apart) who can probably still be a good backup across the board. I look at LF as a legitimately open job though - and if we add an OF, I'd like to add one who at least has ceiling to take that gig. -
It's like Mark Bellhorn 2004 ... guys who strike out a lot can make fans angry. We're conditioned to think it's the worst thing a hitter can do. And walks are not treated with the reverence they deserve compared to singles by fans generally.
-
Drew is 30 and a solid above average starting shortstop. That Drew wanted to see what the market was shouldn't be held against him (if I recall correctly - fans can switch team allegiances, so what's good for the goose ...). He's a pro - a pro who has been hurt a lot, but a pro.
-
And a strikeout is better than some contact outs when there is a runner at 1B and less than 2 outs. Strikeouts are painful to look at, but largely a non-issue. You see a lot of pitches you are opening yourself up to K's. In most situations, playing for the 3-run homer is the percentage play.
-
Well, at least of the guys who can contribute in 2014. Owens I think has a front of the rotation ceiling but also further away than the others. You are right that looking into more permanent rotation answers is not a bad idea. I do want to see what the price on Sale is - the Sox have the prospect inventory to do something there, but the questions about Sale's long term durability would give me pause on spending too much. But clearly you kick the tires.
-
Is Shin Soo Choo worth 18m per year for the Red Sox?
sk7326 replied to vjcsmoke's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We don't know anything - can only deal in comparable cases and long run averages. Guys with good "lead off" type skills have generally been able to contribute in those areas into dotage to some degree. -
I wouldn't infer anything about how Farrell will handle 2014 from how he handled a 4 week tournament. There are PAs to be had for everybody among those spots. But if Drew comes back, yes, he will be taken seriously as the starter (and well he should).
-
Napoli at 2/32 was a legitimately good outcome for both sides - fair price for Napoli. As noted, Napoli as a TTO sort of guy is not going to put a lot of balls in play, but the walks and such will help. Interestingly, if Drew comes back that is 3 of their projected Top 8 guys as relatively low contact sorts (Bradley, Napoli). BTW, I am very bullish on Bradley - but his minor league body of work has has a lot of walks and strikeouts sprinkled in. As is the case with hitters like these guys, you go deep into counts, you increase your odds of striking out. It's life when you see a lot of pitches