sk7326

Bradley has been an OBP machine everywhere he has played professionally. There is no reason not to expect the same. He is a mini-three true outcomes hitter ... so you will have to live with streaks, but that is fine. There were three 7-win players in CF last season - Trout, McCutchen and Gomez. Gomez' defensive metrics were insane enough that you look at the 7 wins a bit skeptically (just from a perspective of how evolved defensive measures are relative to offensive). Trout and McCutchen were >.400 OBP and had excellent power numbers. Andre Ethier was 3 win guy with a .360 OBP. He was also a below average glove defensively. But as you noted - a good to very good defensive center fielder with good on-base skills is a fringy All-Star without considering extra base hits or baserunning. Bradley has a very high ceiling, and even a .250/.340/.400 line is very much within quality starter range if his defense grows as advertised.

28 years old, good on-base skills generally, plus defensive centerfield. Some upside left if you want to see it. Has been a disaster so far, but they have no real choice but to try to ride it out. I get the evaluation.

Ortiz' resurgent 2013 was eerily close to his 2012 before the injuries - I am not worried there. A .350+ OPB is merely what Bradley has produced in every full time minor league stop he has had. It is reasonable to expect a 24 year old to improve to the level of being able to repeat his minor league performance. Napoli's BABIP was .344 in his amazing 2011. Fact is, his BABIP fluctuations are endemic of any three true outcomes sort of hitter. His on-base manages to stay solid either way. AJ could be a clubhouse cancer - but that assumes chemistry leads performance, which it doesn't. Also, he is low enough risk that you can cut him if it's a problem. All it cost them was money.

The growth MIGHT slow - it ain't collapsing. Not one iota. What is the substitute good? Streaming media? Who owns streaming media platforms? The same media companies who run the cable companies.

Last year you could see the embers of it. The industry values innings horses - and if you are a good innings horse, you can write your own check. Lester richly qualifies in both. When making a comp, the ERA is only a modest part of it. Lester's 3.5-4 projected future ERA does not seem amazing for a large salary, but you have to factor in his track record of churning out 30 starts and 200 innings a year. Even if he is not 1997-2000 Pedro Martinez, the fact that you can plug him into your rotation and not have anything to worry about - no DL trips, no Steve Blass disease - is extremely significant.

I guess I'd make clear by what your view of #1 vs #2. I don't use the "30 teams have #1s so it must be at least that good". That is stupid. But I'd say Verlander, Darvish, Felix, Scherzer probably, David Price, with Fernandez and Strasburg right on the doorstep. It's the combination of quality and bulk. Lester's quality has been a wee bit below that super tier, although the bulk is among the league's best. By no means is it an insult - and he had a terrific postseason to add to his resume. He is a $25M pitcher in this market without regret.

It is very much a lowball offer. Tanaka got the offer he did because he was 5 years younger than Lester and the value of a (projected, at least by the team, which is all that matters here) #2 on the Yankee balance sheet is well within what they offered him. Greinke was landed for 6/147 if you want a reasonably good comp. Now what will hurt Lester slightly (MAYBE) in free agency is that the specter of the Price trade looms larger. That said, it was not an issue this year and Tampa is very very smart and probably will cut a deal if the team can contend again. But each free agency year is separate - it will be once again a serious buyer's market. Lester you are looking at a 5/125 or so as a STARTING point. Now, I have misgivings about a pitcher into his 30s blah blah blah. But if there is a pitcher that you are confident will hold his value - 200 decent innings with virtually zero injury history as your absolute floor - Lester is it.

The Yankees have had a good offseason. But their moves only REALLY made sense if they kept Cano, who is one of the league's 10 best players (and probably more like 5). Without him, the Ellsbury and McCann moves only really offset the loss a little bit. The Tanaka move is risky but a risk that makes perfect sense for them - the rotation needs CC to be excellent though. Considering the Yankees were an 86 win team with the run differential of a below .500 one, there is a lot of ground for them to make up. Assuming usual regression for Boston, they are still a solid 85-90 win outfit on the floor (assuming reasonable health). But there is little evidence that these moves got the Yankees that much closer to Baltimore (who was a better team than the 2012 Orioles without the same wild good luck) let alone Tampa or Boston. As far as the Red Sox go ... C: Mild downgrade, maybe. I think the move was more contractually motivated. I'd expect Vasquez to be up in the 2nd half if he can show some solid evidence of being able to hit 1B: Napoli is a three true outcome guy. Nothing you've written changes that. Low BA, high OBP, and a lot of moonshots. Last year was not a strange year for him. Strikeouts don't matter. 2B: Pedroia will be a year older, but his thumb will be healed. His power should make an uptick. 3B: Middlebrooks can't be as bad as he was last year, and Bogaerts will be an upgrade on what they got from the position last year (virtually nothing) SS: Drew is a good player whose absence should not be underrated. But Bogaerts ceiling is obvious, and moreover, you take the near guaranteed upgrade at 3B from last year and it offsets some of the "growing pains" you might get here. LF: It's a platoon - can they cobble a 2-3 win season from a combo of Gomes, Carp, Nava? It is unlikely they ALL stink. There is a job opening here though and I expect that the Sox will be opportunistic. CF: If Bradley can burp out a .370 OBP with elite defense, that is a fringe all-star already. It is a downgrade on Ellsbury's best, but hardly a fatal one. RF: So much of Victorino's value is in his defense that you worry as he loses steps. That said, his discovery that left handed hitting is a waste of his time could ease his regression. DH: Papi is still effective, and that's all you need. Staff: Good. Cherington did a nice job in the offseason adding some relief arms because you can't count on any bullpen repeating its performance. Actually, it's probably the best part of his offseason. The starters are what they are ... Lester as a fringy 1/elite 2, and a bunch of #2/#3 sorts who can give you good professional innings. You can win a World Series with that - we did after all.

Usually guys with a 1 in 3 shot of making the team don't get a 40-man spot. The price and commitment are nonissues, no harm either way. Just wondering, when you have a big league spot, for all the baseball players on earth - I'd be tempted to give it to a guy who has played pro baseball at least in the last 12 months. Now, considering the Red Sox were willing to make a unwarranted commitment to Sizemore, the medicals must have given some hope. There is zero chance he plays a second of CF. I think it's LF all the way here. It is also a large bet on Bradley's defensive development, and that he can provide some cover to allow them to put Sizemore/Nava in RF if necessary without reaching for the maalox.

True - although one should decouple the player salaries from the prices a team charges its public. Independent decisions, and the latter one (how much will the market pay) drives the rest of it. A lot of the hate player salaries gets (which has always been a piece of good owner PR they can and do use) is driven by a false connection between the two (Tanaka's contract and the cost to sit at the Stadium for one).

A dominant stretch in the best baseball league in the world outside of MLB, with at least 4-5 prime years ahead of him. It's a substantial gamble - but not really more than any other free agent pitcher, and with a lot more upside. I am curious how it will work out. I will note that - continuing the chitchat about the health of the industry - is that the wild prices average seeming FA classes are raking in should be the future norm. Teams are getting smarter about locking up the megastuds before free agency hits, and the industry has a ton of money. You end up with a leaner free agent crop, with a lot of money chasing it. The alternative I suppose is the money being held by Judge Smails or donated to his Barclay's Premier League operation ... having it go to the players works a little better.

Fair point - attendance has also gone up consistently ... the industry is doing great despite the economy at large. If anything it is an optimistic sign for future growth.

That would have been the line in the sand for me ... not that it's a big deal here $$-wise ... but extending a big league contract to a guy who has not played in 2 years with his medicals. Not going to lose a lot of sleep over it, but it is a curious decision on its face.

I doubt flop is a fair word for somebody with zero expectations here. We need a backup OF. Those do grow on trees though by comparison, so I'm not going to panic. The big surprise is that they burned a major league contract on Sizemore - did they actually have a competitor where they had to do that?

TV/Corporate money is holding up the store more than the gates and whatnot. Also, the local scenarios for each team vary wildly. To Bud's credit (the one good thing he did) he was able to create an economic system which allows the 30 individual companies to operate that way while managing to pay attention to league health as well. It is about as good as you will get for a system that does not have a centralized revenue structure like the NFL. The internet business will continue to grow - long run there could be a crash, but it is not necessarily that likely - the corporate money drives the train largely. The media companies who drive the cable/TV revenue will (sadly) also be driving the internet stuff too.

Figure in the next CBA it should be closer to $750K. Be glad - everybody is getting rich and everybody is sharing. Everybody has enough money in their pockets to field a competitive team relative to their market realities. Tampa and Oakland are very much proof of this. Can't ask for a lot more than that. The salaries are totally sane from a supply-demand perspective and from an affordability/ROI one.

As long as the industry is drowning in cash ... new TV contracts, taxpayer funded gifts (like in Miami), better national TV money. The Rays get like $60M before a ticket is sold. You take this along with teams getting smarter collectively about locking up prime assets, it has been a major major buyer's market the last few years. The high salaries are a good thing - it shows the industry across the board is doing very well. There is a fun media narrative that talks about the game going down the tubes, but that is nearly total bollocks.

As recently as 5 years ago, Grady Sizemore was arguably the best position player in the AL. The injuries have killed him, but it totally makes sense for the Red Sox to actually look under this rock. Gutierrez has also had a lot of injury problems lately but with a lower ceiling. Gutierrez is the safer bet. At the same time, and this is where I do get the Red Sox perspective here - the Red Sox need a backup OF, but they do have a job opening at LF which could be taken. Sizemore has a bat which can carry LF (if he is healthy). Also, as a former CF, he might translate nicely defensively as a LF (if he is healthy). Red Sox are payin $750K to kick the tires - I am not expecting a ton here, but I get the thought process. If he craps out, they can always find another backup OF on the market.

From most of the scouting stuff I've read, Tanaka has a wipeout splitter and excellent command. The big risk is his workload at his age - and whether it portends something problematic. The other risk is whether his approach is too "Japanese". Darvish's approach was (even in WBC evidence) very American - pitch to contact, come right at hitters with your best stuff. Daisuke never made that adjustment. Having 6 pitches and nibbling works in Japan - here you are better off throwing your 3 best pitches with location and command and going after guys. Dice-K lacked either the confidence, or was just too stubborn. I lean to the latter since he flashed evidence of the tools, and still does. That said, we know based on the current salaries and the way you expect them to inflate that a B/B+ starter who can provide a lot of bulk is going to be worth 20-25 million. So the dollars for Tanaka, especially given the Yankees balance sheet - is fair. There is a risk, but that describes all deals for pitchers, including ones in this offseason's lot (like Ubaldo Jimenez). The gamble on a 25 year old makes more sense. My guess, just based on reading and not having seen him, is his ceiling is more or less Jon Lester - not one of the top 5 pitchers in the league, but capable of touching that level from time to time, but able to churn out 200 really solid innings without any real drama. Off Topic - Edes' speculation of Lester's extension being 5/120 or so seems totally reasonable based on all the comps ...

Yanks have done it both ways, internally (1996-2000) and using the power of the purse (2009). Any free agent is speculation, but going on a middle of the road sort of projection it's a good signing. All the top shelf starters in the cohort had questions. Given the choice of a 25 year old with questions vs a 32 year old with questions at the same price and a significant commitment, the 25 year old is a better bet.

If the wins are significant, they pay for themselves, certainly enough to go over a soft cap by a little bit. This ain't the NFL and the Red Sox have much more flexibility than the Rays do. I think any hitch with Drew is a one year one - both sides would prefer that. Also - and this is relevant, he is a legitimate trade asset if signed at a reasonable rate. If you want to get under whatever budgetary apron that makes you happy (and it is entirely their choice, not the law), you can move him later in the season for a bag of baseballs (though hopefully more).

Drew proved he is a quality starter at SS last year. Jhonny Peralta got $13M a year, so that is Drew's floor. He can hit - in streaks - and his approach prevents the slumps from being too terrible. His defense is outstanding, so much so he remained playable in October despite being useless at the plate. The fangraphs $/WAR is a global average thing and ignores the realities that every market has its own business decisions to make ... that said, a 3-win player is worth well more than $7M. Now, on the bright side, there are 1300-1400 plate appearances that can be distributed between Drew, Bogaerts and Middlebrooks ... and sort of let the development of each guy sort of hash out the AB shares. With Bogaerts and Middlebrooks on pre-arb contracts, there is no financial pressure to solve that problem, and with Middlebrooks' trade value being at its lowest there is a lot of incentive to have him play his stock back up again. Because of Bogaerts' ability to play 3B, and Drew's near total incompetence against lefties - there is plenty of room for everyone for a while at least.

Renteria was a LOT better. He just had a career worst year with Boston. Drew had a solid run for us. Chemistry is a trailer of guys who can play baseball.

If he gives a durable #3 starter sort of performance, with the innings that come with it ... that will be a success for the Yanks here. Any Darvish proclamations issues in his hype are due to nationality - Darvish at the WBC it was abundantly clear had arguably the best pure stuff on earth - Tanaka ain't that. But if Tanaka offers durable Hiroki Kuroda-ish level performance for several years - that is easily worth the money he is being paid.

If they had re-signed Cano, this would have been a REALLY good haul. However, their position free agents basically only slightly offset the Cano loss. It's a good offseason, but last year the Yankees were an 86 win team with the peripherals of a .500 one. They needed a lot more, and the business case was there to shop for it, but they decided not to. The Yankees are closer to us, given some level of regression on our part ... but not by any margin which scares me.